I think open-source eventually replaces commercial products, in the same way that proprietary products become commoditized. The response for commercial products is also the same: continual differentiation, adding new features, benefits, support, documentation etc. Exceptions are also the same: natural monopolies (e.g. strong network effects). Open-source is great at hill-climbing, where there are clear directions for…
Counter-examples abound. Can you name even one open source app that has displaced a mature, user-facing desktop app with a non-trivial UI, other than a web browser? Open source only seems to win in domains in which it makes sense for companies to share work in order to compete at a higher tier of functionality.
The only way it realistically can realistically happen if is the commercial product is not being improved (i.e. differentiated) any more. Your example is one of these - standardization is related to commodification.
I suspect also that user-facing apps are easier to keep improving, because the user is right there, and always has more needs that could be served (e.g. text editors will evolve til they can read mail; those that can't will be replaced by those that can). Non-user facing apps tend to be defined by their environment, rather than by users - although, any component that creates a benefit that the user wants more of will keep being improved (from Clayton Christensen). e.g. databases, CPUs.