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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#661

Post by noxer »

logifail wrote: post #517
noxer wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the odds are obviously against you its not useful ofc. If you think there is a 50% chance you lose everything then you should also see a 50% chance that you make over 100% profit if that is not realistic its probably not the right thing.

> If the odds are obviously against you Can you define "obviously"? Spoiler, but for financial investments, there are no [genuine] odds. That's kind of my point about the efficient markets hypothesis. For example, Tesla was at $88.60 on January 3, 2020. It's at $728 now (and peaked[?] at $1222-ish in November 2021]. Presumably there were not very many people who, in January 2020, thought Tesla would increase in value…

Roulette is an example where the odds are against you and its obvious. Your chance to win in statistically lower than 50% and it should be higher than 50%.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#662

Post by timtas »

arcticbull wrote: post #167
mattwilsonn888 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't understand what a commodity is - or you don't understand what Bitcoin is.

Ah the classic coiner refrain. Thanks bud. We do. We really, really do. We've spent many years learning exactly what those things are thanks to all this insufferable nonsense. I know more about crypto than practically 90% of the crypto community. I know all the personalities, the history, the fraud, the crime, the grift. I've read countless whitepapers. I've learned about 'traditional' finance. All because of the bri…

The thing most anti-coiners don't understand is fiat, how that scam works.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#663

Post by timtas »

IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

You should probably get your burning envy under control before you realize this is just a buying opportunity and it fully consumes you.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#664

Post by timtas »

munificent wrote: post #392
IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

Here is my weird tin foil hat theory that explains, like, a lot of what's been going in the world in the past twenty years. A significant fraction of young single men feel a deep compulsion to indulge in risky behavior with a potential high reward in order to make a name for themselves or earn their place in society. I don't know if it's genetic, cultural, both. But for many young dudes, it's not enough to simply wor…

> No actual new value is being created

That's your whole theory, and there's nothing weird about it. Everyone knows young men take risks to make their fortune and gain esteem. It's just window dressing for a claim you threw out there without any supporting argument.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#665

Post by timtas »

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK wrote: post #433
IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

There are a lot of people with no skills that are richer than you. Are you hating all the people who inherited money? Should any person born in poor country hate people born in rich countries?

Best reply. Envy is gross. Such a socially destructive vice.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#666

Post by timtas »

gsibble wrote: post #98

I feel bad for people losing money, but crypto has not lived up to its potential at all, remains a solution looking for a problem, and is an environmental disaster. I used to be a huge believer. Brian Armstrong gave me my first Bitcoin in 2011 at District in SOMA. Electricity was included in my rent so I bought 10 video cards and mined for about two years on 5 systems. At a company I founded, I use Bitcoin to pay for…

> remains a solution looking for a problem

> Apart from a way of ... storing value

Do you think USD (or some other fiat) is a good medium for storing value? If not, can you see that your latter claim invalidates the former?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#667

Post by timtas »

mcguire wrote: post #357
anotheracctfo wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More goalpost shifting. I've been hearing "Bitcoin is the new gold" and "Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation" since the beginning. Gold is down 2% and Bitcoin is down like 30% or something. Also please keep in mind this isn't Reddit, this is HN. The people here were there right at the beginning, and most of us played with the funny money while it was worthless. Some even became rich (Not me lol)! So don't fucking ga…

I can't count how many times people have explained here that Bitcoin is a "store of value". A store of value that can be down 40% YTD is...problematic. I mean, I guess the value is still there....

Most people using bitcoin as a store of value are willing to accept volatility, given that we know for certain that fiat is a store with built-in leaks — leaks that we can all see are getting bigger and there's good reason to believe will become a sieve.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#668

Post by timtas »

epolanski wrote: post #425
rot13xor wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crypto believers told me US dollar would enter hyperinflation very soon and Bitcoin will be the only viable currency because it has a finite supply.

Why something that has a finite supply would be viable as a currency. Since it's deflative all the incentive is holding, not spending. Why buy a house for 5 bitcoins now, if I can get it at 4 bitcoins 3 months from now..What if I could get it at 1 bitcoin in 3 years...crazy right..? And no one spends, because the incentive is not here. Our economies are all based on people wanting to spend or invest rather than stock…

You're right. No one ever buys computers or phones. They'll be cheaper and more powerful tomorrow!

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#669

Post by timtas »

ChrisLTD wrote: post #122
jonathan-adly wrote: post #63

It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months like this, and lots of the HN audience would be worried about layoffs. The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles. If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS…

Boom & bust cycles seem to be a built in “feature” of market economies. The architects are not trying to create booms and busts per se, but they are trying to manage them so they aren’t as devastating as 1929.

Viewing boom-bust cycles as "something that just happens, we have no theory to explain why" is the great failure and embarrassment of mainstream (that is to say Keynesian) economics.

But a comprehensive theory exists. It won Friedrich Hayek the Nobel Prize in 1974. You should at least be familiar with it.

https://mises.org/library/austrian-theory-business-cycle-7

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#670

Post by jjeaff »

nwiswell wrote: post #551
jreese wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Louvre charges 17€ per person, and I'm pretty sure they're focused on fine art. How much they're profit focused versus just reinvesting profits is up for debate.

There are no profits. The Louvre is owned by the French government and heavily subsidized by the French taxpayer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louvre#Management,_administrat... > The Louvre is owned by the French government. Since the 1990s, its management and governnace have been made more independent.[91][92][93][94] Since 2003, the museum has been required to generate funds for projects.[93] By 2006, government f…

There are also for profit museums. Not sure how profitable they actually are, but I have come across them. You'll see a lot of them around New Mexico and Arizona where you can see native american artifacts, art, fossils, etc.
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