Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even if it goes below $10k, that would be normal price action for Bitcoin. It would start to get interesting if it goes below $1k.
that would be worse than 2018
Better, rather.
$3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
181–190 of 540 posts
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
The 20% interest was just a short-term user acquisition scheme, funded by some of the initial LUNA tokens. I don't think anyone claimed that it was sustainable. A Ponzi would be if Anchor used users' deposits to pay out the 20% rewards, which isn't what happened here.
> funded by some of the initial LUNA tokens. Which were bought by users in a zero sum-game. A ponzi is a zero-sum game where new entrants finance old exits. Just because the funding for the ponzi is done in a different currency doesn't mean it's not one. You can't create a closed system that generates wealth, and when you're growth hacking with your users' money, you are running a fraud.
Anchor protocol always retained the full amount of each UST deposit, plus additional rewards (whose funding was external to Anchor), so clearly Anchor is not a Ponzi, as I thought you were implying originally.
Would you assert that any undercollateralized currency is a Ponzi? (Seems like stretching the definition to me.) Or that any system with unsustainable rewards is a Ponzi, even if there was no expectation that they were sustainable?
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, it’s a commodity and trades like a commodity. Anything that stops a supply from overwhelming demand results in an increase in price. Commodities traders accept the seasonality of their assets, and arent perma-bulls, with the exception of metals traders. Bitcoin inherits a mixture of stock traders and metals traders sentiment, where perma-bulls mentality of “number go up forever” is present but less warranted. T…
Oil and gas are vitally useful. They have actual value to make things and move things and power things.
> Oil and gas are vitally useful. They have actual value to make things and move things and power things.
And what was the point of that copypasta?
Analogies compare dissimilar things in the ways that they are alike, not the ways they are not alike. The trading patterns and supply and demand pressures are the ways they are alike, whether you respect why such pressures exist or not.
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
By 2032? We need new songs, “you just got Do Kwon’d” instead of “Mt Goxxed”
Just as a reminder about how Mt Gox played out - it looks like all the people who lost money on it will receive 1:1 fiat-denominated compensation for their losses, Mark Karpeles won't serve a day in prison, and is likely to walk away with ~3 billion worth of BTC[1]. Who'd have thought that failing to operate a bitcoin exchange is a thousand times more lucrative than actually operating one! [1] If Mark owed you a bitc…
Edit: Looked deeper into it. It's a really weird story, where it looks like they got hacked (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/27/russian-c...), he tried to fake financial data to make it look like they had money, and he got caught. In the end, he's making more money off of lying and the original investors are screwed. That's really lame.
It's also unfortunate, because a lot of the vibe I get from crypto people I run into (more online than in-person), is survival of the cleverest, and anything is cool if you can get away with it. People I knew outside of crypto who are into it (more on the eng-side), are pretty cool, though and usually don't only trust Bitcoin and see most alt-coins as scams.
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I mean it's not going back up to $60k. Oh man. I'll have fun poking you next year about how embarrassingly wrong you were.
I wouldn't say next year, but by 2025 I think there will be a new ATH. But I'm just very conservatives in my predictions.
Cool! Can I see what sort of mathematical model you use? What inputs, what outputs?
What are the fundamentals?
I know you don't have any such thing, just a "hunch" that you believe is authoritative.
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
> “In a sense, the market is going to take that as kind of bullish.” I mean everything is a bit oversold right now on negative emotions, both in the crypto space and in the stock markets. There's probably going to be a positive bounce just because markets don't move in straight lines. There is always the chance that something else explodes due to stress tomorrow and hits the headlines and crypto and/or stocks start m…
The fact that crypto is correlated with tech stock valuations should be raising eyebrows. Flash back a few years and the hypothesis that bitcoin would hedge inflation/fiat depreciation was standard. If BTC is correlated with equities, why not just hold productive equities?
I never understood the argument why crypto was a good store of value. Sure, it’s an ingenious new transactional system, making global payments mostly frictionless, etc, but that’s true whether the value of 1 Bitcoin is $1 or $50,000. If everyone’s just converting back to fiat anyway, only keeping enough BTC transiently to settle transactions, why hold it long term?
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just as a reminder about how Mt Gox played out - it looks like all the people who lost money on it will receive 1:1 fiat-denominated compensation for their losses, Mark Karpeles won't serve a day in prison, and is likely to walk away with ~3 billion worth of BTC[1]. Who'd have thought that failing to operate a bitcoin exchange is a thousand times more lucrative than actually operating one! [1] If Mark owed you a bitc…
Edit: Looked deeper into it. It's a really weird story, where it looks like they got hacked ( https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/27/russian-c... ), he tried to fake financial data to make it look like they had money, and he got caught. In the end, he's making more money off of lying and the original investors are screwed. That's really lame. It's also unfortunate, because a lot of the vibe I get from cry…
Nobody got paid yet. This is going to drag out for a long long time.
I also think the BTC-E issue is bigger and gives me reason to think Mark Karpeles wrongfully served jail time in Japan (for the reason that he served time, there could be other reasons if people like that kind of consequence).
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#188"Sold" It's hard to show that they really sold these coins. Certainly, the LFG transferred the coins to some different exchanges. But did they truly sell them? If I was running a dodgy ponzi scheme and saw it collapsing catastrophically, I don't think I'd be throwing good money after bad trying to futilely patch it up. Much better to stash the remaining assets away somewhere and personally cash out later on. Also, “I…
> “In a sense, the market is going to take that as kind of bullish.” I mean everything is a bit oversold right now on negative emotions, both in the crypto space and in the stock markets. There's probably going to be a positive bounce just because markets don't move in straight lines. There is always the chance that something else explodes due to stress tomorrow and hits the headlines and crypto and/or stocks start m…
I mean everything is a bit oversold right now
Everythinig was way overbought when considering the money for those past purchases came from an accommodative Fed that flooded the economy with $9 trillion that currently sits on its balance sheet, lowered interest rates to literally 0 and the government sending out stimulus like it was candy.
All of which are either done or ending.
So I think a better way to phrase it is that the market is repricing with the new information, it isn't oversold.
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
All bitcoin is "unbacked". There's no intrinsically useful asset behind bitcoin. Your private key is just a bundle of bits. Bits are so abundant as to be worthless.
Same with paper fiat currency.
Actually paper fiat currency is accepted by a government to pay property tax. In this way you need it to keep possession of land, so the entire land value of the linked country, and all the infrastructure built on it, is the backing for 'fiat' currency.
Re: $3B in Bitcoin was sold in a last-ditch attempt to save UST from collapse
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Doesn't the first line answer the second? To be clear, you're suggesting: "because people are uneducated about bitcoin and crypto, when one project fails they will incorrectly connect it to bitcoin. And that's bad for Bitcoin." These events are great opportunities to educate ignorant people. > 0 such ignorant people will learn more about bitcoin and why it's not like crypto like Luna. Greater education is extremely…
Most people investing in crypto just want to put in $1 and take out $2. Trying to educate people about cryptocoins is practically a waste of time at this point - they just don't care. Events like these are bad for Bitcoin on a pure value basis, for anyone invested in Bitcoin. That's just my opinion, though.
It's worse than that.
Every dollar taken out of crypto is at the expense of someone else. Those coiners trying to change $1->$2 are heavily incentivized to lie, manipulate, and convince the naive in the public to put their $1 in.
You could say this is everything with a public market, but with stocks or bonds you also have a legally binding contract to organizational assets that have value. Buybacks, issuing new units, dividends, etc. provide other avenues for cash injection to get your $2 out.
BTC doesn't even have the bare minimum regulation to prevent bad actors from exploiting the public, which is why it's worse since the public only sees coiners trying to whitewash an inefficient database.