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Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

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Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#201

Post by wil421 »

sofixa wrote: post #197
bnralt wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole thing has made me reevaluate the way the Cuban Missile Crisis is portrayed in the U.S. It's usually held up as an example of great presidential leadership, with almost no push back. But if you look at the history it's fascinating. The U.S. launched an invasion to try to overthrow the Cuban government during the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion. Then it moved nuclear missiles up to the USSR's border in Turkey (the…

Is that how the Cuban missile crisis is taught in the US? It certainly is different than what I learned in school ( ex-communist country). It was presented with much more nuance, starting with the backstory that the US had missiles in Turkey and Italy, so them blowing off due to missiles in Cuba was highly hypocritical.

It was covered in my school in depth in the US. The backstory was covered.

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#202

Post by pydry »

drakonka wrote: post #192
pydry wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Abide by Minsk II, officially cede crimea (according to gallup this is what 80-90% of crimeans want), disband azov and promise never to join NATO. Theres a perfectly clear deescalation path and has been since before the war started. This war was many things but inevitable was never one of them. Deescalation is the last thing NATO or the US wants though.

And giving up their land and independence is the last thing Ukrainians want, so it sounds like Ukraine and NATO are on the same page in terms of not appeasing a senile tyrant invading a sovereign nation.

It's what 90% of crimeans wanted according to gallup polling.

The way I see it the west either fights for empire or we fight for democracy.

If we fight for democracy then we respect votes we dont like whose results are independently verified by pollsters we trust. Particularly votes that breach the 90%+ threshold. That would match our principles.

In Ukraine neither Kyiv, the west nor Russia fights for democracy though. Everybody fights for power, territory and, ultimately, empire.

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#203

Post by sofixa »

theshrike79 wrote: post #166
jmyeet wrote: post #150

So let's recount what Putin has achieved in the last 3 months: 1. Failed to conquer all of Ukraine; 2. Failed to capture Kyiv; 3. Failed to make meaningful gains in the Donbass; 4. Failed to decapitate Ukraine's leadership; 5. Suffered huge casulaties; 6. Done massive damage to the perception of Russia's military (and thus the power it can project); 7. Done more for NATO solidarity than probably anything else in the…

The worst part is that I can't see a valid "out" for Russia as a country from this. Even if Russians, by some miracle, manage to pry Putin out of power, what then? Will anyone trust any of their leadership? The level of sanctions on Russia is AFAIK unprecedented on a global scale, it's only been months and regular people are already feeling the effects. And if the sanctions go on for a few years, they'll be at Soviet…

> Even if Russians, by some miracle, manage to pry Putin out of power, what then? Will anyone trust any of their leadership?

The only way that could happen is with some Germany post-WW2 level consequences and reckoning. All high level military, intelligence, civilian administration get one way tickets to The Hague for trial, with mandatory permanent exile for those not guilty of crimes. Full demilitarisation. Heavy economic sanctions for the rebuilding of Ukraine, and then Russia itself with loans

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#204

Post by macintux »

seanw444 wrote: post #191
stjohnswarts wrote: post #102

This is great news. I don't think Turkey will be able to stop this considering how pissed off other members are at Russian genocide and belligerence. Seems Turkey doesn't mind that...

Genocide? Really?

Yes.

... any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

(a) Killing members of the group; (b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; (d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#205

Post by jmyeet »

osynavets wrote: post #185
jmyeet wrote: post #150

So let's recount what Putin has achieved in the last 3 months: 1. Failed to conquer all of Ukraine; 2. Failed to capture Kyiv; 3. Failed to make meaningful gains in the Donbass; 4. Failed to decapitate Ukraine's leadership; 5. Suffered huge casulaties; 6. Done massive damage to the perception of Russia's military (and thus the power it can project); 7. Done more for NATO solidarity than probably anything else in the…

In my opinion it's destroying Ukraine as a country. Even if it takes years he's ready to keep this thing going until our economy collapses. I mean, you're right, Russia hasn't succeeded in its goals. But if we take a look at Ukraine which will start to struggle economically in near future [1] you can change your opinion. [1] - https://www.economist.com/europe/it-will-be-hard-for-ukraine...

You bring up a good point. I've given this some thought. On its face I think it's a reasonable position: if Putin can't have Ukraine, nobody can (not even Ukraine). This is more believable when you consider that oil and gas reserves have been found in Ukraine but it lacks the capital to develop them. Shell was in Crimea prior to the annexation.

But this theory has a few problems.

1. The cost of wrecking Ukraine has been really high.

2. Ukraine was earning a significant amount of money (ie billions) from carrying Russian natural gas to Western Europe through pipelines. Russia has since built other pipelines to avoid this problem but I believe they were still 1-2 years away from completely bypassing Ukraine;

3. Arguably Russiaa can do more damage outside or Ukraine than in it. Russia has been stirring up trouble and supplying separatists in the Donbass since at least 2014. In some ways annexing the Donbass would solve a problem for Ukraine as they'd no longer have this divisive element within their borders. It's arguably more of a problem for Ukraine for the Donbass to be part of Ukraine and this required no further intervention from Russia and certainly no invasion.

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#206

Post by sofixa »

seanw444 wrote: post #191
stjohnswarts wrote: post #102

This is great news. I don't think Turkey will be able to stop this considering how pissed off other members are at Russian genocide and belligerence. Seems Turkey doesn't mind that...

Genocide? Really?

Yep, the mass kidnapping of children is literally in the definition of genocide - article 2e.

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#207

Post by alkonaut »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #153
alkonaut wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NATO is not just about Russia. Not only, but for the most part....It's about Russia. > Turkey brings a military ~30x the size of Sweden On the other hand Sweden and Finland at 2% GDP has a similar defense budget to Turkey. Money does not a military make, but "30x the size" is only counting manpower and not much else. Modern fighter aircraft is around a factor 2x rather than 30x, for example. > a buffer for conflict…

>Turkey has long been the champion of secularism in the area, and obviosuly everyone in NATO (and elsewhere) hopes that will remain the case, hence one is reluctant to push Turkey away too. Exactly. With all the faults of current Turkish government, they are a mile ahead of everyone else in Middle East. The problem is the comparison: they were going forward with EU membership - their government just was way more sane…

> there's decent chance that Erdogan will be voted out in 2023.

This isn’t irrelevant to what we are seeing now. He needs some good news/external foes/strongman aura these days.

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#208

Post by jmyeet »

Gravityloss wrote: post #179
jmyeet wrote: post #150

So let's recount what Putin has achieved in the last 3 months: 1. Failed to conquer all of Ukraine; 2. Failed to capture Kyiv; 3. Failed to make meaningful gains in the Donbass; 4. Failed to decapitate Ukraine's leadership; 5. Suffered huge casulaties; 6. Done massive damage to the perception of Russia's military (and thus the power it can project); 7. Done more for NATO solidarity than probably anything else in the…

Putin has been writing and speaking about this for years. He really thinks Russia should control other Slavic people, and former territories of Russia and Soviet Union etc. And it's not only Putin. Most of the other high ranking officials must have been supporting the attack into Ukraine, otherwise it would not have happened. If it was him alone against everyone else, Putin would simply have been replaced. A large po…

I don't put a lot of stock in the Russian Imperialism ambitions as being a serious factor in this invasion. I just don't think it adds up. I mean even if Putin was saying this, that doesn't mean a lot. The US, for example, says they're spreading democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq, fro example.

I believe it's far more likely that Russia actually wanted (wants?) a buffer between it and NATO. They've been warning of this since 2008 (when Bush opened the door to Ukraine joining NATO).

Why do I find this more believable? Because it's exactly what imperial powers do. It's exactly what the United States has done. The US almost started World War Three over a Soviet presence in Cuba. The US for 200 years (ie the Monroe Doctrine) has considered the Americas the sole province of the US and any foreign military to be a threat.

China does this too. Mongolia is a buffer to Russia. North Korea is a buffer to South Korea (and the significant US military presence there).

For Imperialist ambitions to make sense, Russia would have to either occupy Ukraine on a long term basis or install a puppet regime (eg like Belarus). Both are doomed from the start. The Ukraine is too large to occupy and would be too expensive. The USSR couldn't even maintain a puppet government in Afghanistan (and nor could the US obviously).

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#209

Post by drakonka »

pydry wrote: post #202
drakonka wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And giving up their land and independence is the last thing Ukrainians want, so it sounds like Ukraine and NATO are on the same page in terms of not appeasing a senile tyrant invading a sovereign nation.

It's what 90% of crimeans wanted according to gallup polling. The way I see it the west either fights for empire or we fight for democracy. If we fight for democracy then we respect votes we dont like whose results are independently verified by pollsters we trust. Particularly votes that breach the 90%+ threshold. That would match our principles. In Ukraine neither Kyiv, the west nor Russia fights for democracy thoug…

Do you believe a Gallup poll should dictate a country's borders or serve as justification for a nation being invaded by its neighbor?

Re: Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership

#210

Post by brandmeyer »

wil421 wrote: post #201
sofixa wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that how the Cuban missile crisis is taught in the US? It certainly is different than what I learned in school ( ex-communist country). It was presented with much more nuance, starting with the backstory that the US had missiles in Turkey and Italy, so them blowing off due to missiles in Cuba was highly hypocritical.

It was covered in my school in depth in the US. The backstory was covered.

Same. The resolution of missile crisis itself is lauded as a policy victory only in contrast to and a result of presidential lessons learned in the disastrous bay of pigs invasion.
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