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Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

bloomberg.com

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Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#31

Post by Steltek »

cheschire wrote: post #29
Dave3of5 wrote: post #19

> Almost all dealerships in the city were closed during the month Which is why no-one bought any cars wtf is this article ...

The article is talking about how extreme the lockdown is. As other commenters have pointed out, it's normal to expect some non-zero number of sales, so when there's an exact zero, it's very odd. As an example, notice how they said "almost all dealerships" and not "all dealerships". Non-zero numbers are normal. Absolute zero is a very strange signal.

Maybe the data is wrong then?

- It was not an exhaustive or comprehensive search

- Reporting non-zero would drawn government scrutiny for how a car was sold during a strict lockdown

- Industry group reporting zero is trying to draw alarm/attention to helping their industry

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#32

Post by lettergram »

cheschire wrote: post #29
Dave3of5 wrote: post #19

> Almost all dealerships in the city were closed during the month Which is why no-one bought any cars wtf is this article ...

The article is talking about how extreme the lockdown is. As other commenters have pointed out, it's normal to expect some non-zero number of sales, so when there's an exact zero, it's very odd. As an example, notice how they said "almost all dealerships" and not "all dealerships". Non-zero numbers are normal. Absolute zero is a very strange signal.

Well, might not have been zero. Might just be the official records to ensure the state doesn’t crack down

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#33

Post by whoevercares »

captainmuon wrote: post #22

Does anybody know what the situation is in the rest of China? I hear there are a couple of strict lockdowns in other cities, and some districts of Beijing. China has in the past justified their harsh measures because the relative majority could live without Covid restrictions (and illness and deaths of course). It would be interesting to see what portion of the population is on lockdown, but it is hard to find good s…

Not much on “continuous lockdown”. Lockdown in China is “dynamic” and at this point a great portion of the population has been on a lockdown at once. Many smaller city are in lockdown sporadically every few weeks but they are not crowded. Most rural areas are not tightly managed either, lockdown is per village or even per household basis with no statistics.

I think for China what matters are the big Tier1 cities. It’s enough to paralyze China if 2-3 of them implement full city wide lockdown. Core areas of Beijing has implemented daily test, not much in its suburbs though. So far Beijing is quite manageable still.

Source: family in Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan and several other Tier 2/3 cities across China.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#34

Post by boringg »

lettergram wrote: post #32
cheschire wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is talking about how extreme the lockdown is. As other commenters have pointed out, it's normal to expect some non-zero number of sales, so when there's an exact zero, it's very odd. As an example, notice how they said "almost all dealerships" and not "all dealerships". Non-zero numbers are normal. Absolute zero is a very strange signal.

Well, might not have been zero. Might just be the official records to ensure the state doesn’t crack down

I figure this is the real reason. Which dealership would be stupid enough to say they had sold a car in a month that they were officially lockdown. The retribution would be swift and harsh.

Could also be zero because everyone obeyed the order.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#35

Post by nradov »

jeromegv wrote: post #30
nradov wrote: post #26

There are rumors than President Xi has been using the coronavirus outbreak as a convenient excuse to knock the "Shanghai clique" down a few pegs. Supposedly he thought the local Shanghai leaders were getting a bit too popular, and insufficiently deferential to Beijing. He's terrified of seeing any alternative power centers develop.

>There are rumors >Supposedly I'd rather prefer people to have an opinion and share it, instead of sharing rumours and "supposedly" theories without sourcing them.

Obviously I can't source something from inside President Xi's head. But that rumor seems consistent with the observed facts on the ground.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#36

Post by usrn »

alistairSH wrote: post #24
usrn wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People still use cars. In many of these foreign countries people often just buy them as a status symbol. That none were sold is an indication of a serious economic problem.

Is it? There was a ~30 day lockdown. China does strict lockdowns relative to the US or Europe. Car purchases could just be deferred a month, so there would be an economic impact, but the one-month blip wouldn't be indicative of any long-term problem.

It is indicative of a short term change. The short term changes here in the US resulted in other long term disruption and that's likely to happen in China as well.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#37

Post by whoevercares »

nradov wrote: post #26

There are rumors than President Xi has been using the coronavirus outbreak as a convenient excuse to knock the "Shanghai clique" down a few pegs. Supposedly he thought the local Shanghai leaders were getting a bit too popular, and insufficiently deferential to Beijing. He's terrified of seeing any alternative power centers develop.

Current leader of Shanghai Li Qiang is Xi’s best buddy since 20 years ago.. quite the opposite the plan might be from someone else to take Shanghai back

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#38

Post by Mordisquitos »

nradov wrote: post #26

There are rumors than President Xi has been using the coronavirus outbreak as a convenient excuse to knock the "Shanghai clique" down a few pegs. Supposedly he thought the local Shanghai leaders were getting a bit too popular, and insufficiently deferential to Beijing. He's terrified of seeing any alternative power centers develop.

I had a similar thought when the Chinese government recently restricted outside travel for non-essential purposes [0]. It might be a rational decision given their comparably low rate of population immunity, but it should be combined with a reinforced vaccination campaign to make sense in the long term. I can't help but wonder how much their legitimate public health concerns and their obsession to save face regarding "zero-COVID" combines with an excuse to use the current COVID-19 outbreak to further isolate the Chinese population from the rest of World.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-strictly-limit-unn...

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#40

Post by mattkrause »

dsizzle wrote: post #11

Weird proxy to illustrate the problem with lockdowns. On the one hand it's a huge city, so there's lots of people who could be buying cars, but on the other hand... it's a huge city, so you probably don't need a car?

This data is already collected and aggregated (e.g., for issuing license plates), so it's probably more that it was handy than it's a perfect proxy.
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