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The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

foreignpolicy.com

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Re: The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

#81

Post by yunohn »

aeternum wrote: post #80
yunohn wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a difference between equity in badly performing companies, and a Ponzi scheme where “stable” coins that promise a value of 1$ can depeg.

There is a difference, the code for UST/LUNA was open-source and risks were out in the open. In contrast, a company can hide wrongdoing and you can be left with something like Enron. Long-term, I'd trust the algos more than the traditional system. Survival is a powerful selector, flawed ideas will be weeded out. Those that remain will be both resilient and transparent.

> I'd trust the algos more than the traditional system

LUNA being an algo stable helped with nothing. Do Kwon erratically bought BTC at a peak and during this attack, it was "sold" but is now /unaccounted/ for. Further, they minted more LUNA and increased circulating supply from 350k to 7T in a few days.

None of this is algorithmic, but purely (and messily) human-operated.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

#82

Post by rvz »

mirceal wrote: post #57
rvz wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is not safe to say, but rvz likes to keep saying it. Yes it is. Assuming you have read the whole article, it is safe to say that it has failed in its original purpose. I and and many others keep saying it because it is an irrefutable fact after many years of its existence. In the case of the author on Bitcoin and the contents of this article, he has made that totally clear. Hence, can one use it for on-chain pay…

that's some great mental gymnastics and goal post moving. "original purpose", "irrefutable fact", "many years of existence", "author of Bitcoin", "supposed to be better" yes, people use it for payments. yes, it is better than the "current system" as it literally cannot be censored (as shown by its banning - multiple times - in China).

There is no goal-post moving from me as it is straightforward to understand what the whole point of Bitcoin is about as explained by Satoshi Nakamoto himself in the white-paper.

Assuming that you have read it, so is Satoshi moving the goal posts for Bitcoin? or is it the maximalists?

> people use it for payments.

Like in El Salvador who has adopted it as its 'legal tender'? It is going great isn't it and especially better and envisioned by Satoshi as a form of on-chain payment system?

> as it literally cannot be censored (as shown by its banning - multiple times - in China).

That is because its due to it being on-chain which that is decentralised despite the bans, which that is the whole point of Bitcoin. Is that what El Salvador and others are using it for?

Re: The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

#83

Post by rvz »

mirceal wrote: post #59
rvz wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Crypto has not failed. These are your words, not from the article. And where in those words did I say that 'Crypto has failed'? Did I say 'about Crypto' ? or was it 'about Bitcoin' ?, the one who's author's name is 'Satoshi Nakamoto' , and published a white-paper titled: 'Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system' ? Of all replies to me, everyone (except you) knew that I was talking about Bitcoin being a failu…

> Of all replies to me, everyone (except you) knew that I was talking about Bitcoin being a failure in its original purpose. Nope. Not everyone. You are making vague overarching claims. When you get pushback you are moving the goalposts.

> Nope. Not everyone.

Yes. Everyone here replying to me. Even in your replies, you still recognised I was talking about Bitcoin. Unless you want to admit to me that you did not read the replies?

> You are making vague overarching claims. When you get pushback you are moving the goalposts.

At most 24 hours is plenty of time to give you the chance to finish reading the article(s) and come up with a response that directly refutes the article and my questions if you think the claims made there are wrong.

So are YOU going to refute them and answer my question(s) if you think they are "vague", "overarching" claims?

Every time you hesitate or respond by avoiding the question(s) it is more clearer to me that not only they are difficult for you to answer, but you are unable to refute them.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

#85

Post by aeternum »

yunohn wrote: post #81
aeternum wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a difference, the code for UST/LUNA was open-source and risks were out in the open. In contrast, a company can hide wrongdoing and you can be left with something like Enron. Long-term, I'd trust the algos more than the traditional system. Survival is a powerful selector, flawed ideas will be weeded out. Those that remain will be both resilient and transparent.

> I'd trust the algos more than the traditional system LUNA being an algo stable helped with nothing. Do Kwon erratically bought BTC at a peak and during this attack, it was "sold" but is now /unaccounted/ for. Further, they minted more LUNA and increased circulating supply from 350k to 7T in a few days. None of this is algorithmic, but purely (and messily) human-operated.

Agreed, there will always be scammers out there. Trust the code, not the human shills. Just as with a company, consider who has controlling interest. One advantage of crypto however is that the books are wide open to those willing to look.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

#86

Post by rglullis »

blibble wrote: post #84
rglullis wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much of a hit it would be on FAANG's market cap if their revenue went down by 1%?

0

Right, because stock markets never go down when tech companies show signs of declining revenue.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

#87

Post by Ekaros »

nradov wrote: post #40
qqqwerty wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think 2008 is the wrong analogy. The Dotcom bubble is probably a more instructive comparison. The Dotcom bubble was inflated by a lot of people investing in something they didn't understand. And the crash did not threaten to destabilize the entire financial system. But it did cause a drag on the broader economy, and had fairly significant local impacts. Of course that is just when evaluating the crypto bubble. Ther…

The Dotcom bubble companies were mostly not outright scams. Some of them were, in retrospect, obviously stupid ideas. But they were at least trying to bring in revenue, and a few actually succeeded. By contrast, cryptocurrency has no revenue stream. It's a zero-sum game. A better analogy would be the bubble in Beanie Babies that happened around the same time as the Dotcom boom (and drove some early Ebay growth). Idio…

Even worst crypto is negative-sum game. It has constant negative revenue stream in mining. Occasionally it is corrected, but not as much as the price increases...

Re: The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

#88

Post by yunohn »

aeternum wrote: post #85
yunohn wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd trust the algos more than the traditional system LUNA being an algo stable helped with nothing. Do Kwon erratically bought BTC at a peak and during this attack, it was "sold" but is now /unaccounted/ for. Further, they minted more LUNA and increased circulating supply from 350k to 7T in a few days. None of this is algorithmic, but purely (and messily) human-operated.

Agreed, there will always be scammers out there. Trust the code, not the human shills. Just as with a company, consider who has controlling interest. One advantage of crypto however is that the books are wide open to those willing to look.

No, my point is that an algorithm can only control very few things - most governance actions are manual and attacks can exploit anything.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible

#90

Post by aeternum »

yunohn wrote: post #88
aeternum wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, there will always be scammers out there. Trust the code, not the human shills. Just as with a company, consider who has controlling interest. One advantage of crypto however is that the books are wide open to those willing to look.

No, my point is that an algorithm can only control very few things - most governance actions are manual and attacks can exploit anything.

Yes that's fair, but if you choose algos/chains with actual distributed governance then you at least the voting has to happen on-chain so you can sell if you don't agree with the way a vote is going.

You can sometimes do the same with companies but definitely not always.

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