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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#651

Post by Breza »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #596
rot13xor wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crypto believers told me US dollar would enter hyperinflation very soon and Bitcoin will be the only viable currency because it has a finite supply.

Finite supply doesn't even matter anymore since exchanges are now operating like banks with fractional reserves, loans and everything. Through credit they can inflate away the value of cryptocurrencies as much as they want. The entire financial system was reinvented on top of bitcoin, it's the worst possible outcome.

You just put your finger on what has been frustrating me and cryptocurrency for the past few years, thank you

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#652

Post by Breza »

mcguire wrote: post #259
jonathan-adly wrote: post #63

It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months like this, and lots of the HN audience would be worried about layoffs. The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles. If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS…

The "crash" in MT FAANG (that's a thing?) (-25%,-40%,-45%,-23%,-38%,-72% (whoa),-24%) is very likely people moving money out of stocks that they put into stocks because they could not get any return on bonds and other assets. It's a financial crash; none of the fundamentals have markedly changed. Of course, the fundamentals have been horrible because the economy has been in a bad way for several years (certainly, aft…

I'm putting money in index funds every month. That's the best low maintenance strategy for surviving all market conditions.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#653

Post by Breza »

fullstop wrote: post #460
superjan wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crash is terrible for many people. But isn’t the alternative that the casino continues and even more people are ruined?

My 401k doesn't look that different from the crypto space at the moment.

My retirement funds are heavily invested in the stock market and I haven't lost nearly as much value as Bitcoin et al. And I'm convinced the stock market will recover in the next thirty years before I retire.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#654

Post by Breza »

cwkoss wrote: post #404
jtlisi wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re focusing on the price of bitcoin. Bitcoins market cap during Mt Gox was a few billion. Today it’s over a trillion. Luna going from a market cap of close to 100 billion to basically worthless in a few days is like 50 Mt Gox incidents in terms of wealth destruction. Bitcoin has market cap swings larger than the loss during Mt Gox in minutes these days.

Underscores the fallaciousness of thinking paper gains are wealth. Profits aren't real until you have to pay taxes on them.

Which technically should happen as soon as you transfer your floating cryptocurrency into a stablecoin, but I get the feeling that most people don't pay taxes when making that mind off transaction.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#655

Post by papito »

gsibble wrote: post #65
IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

This. I cannot stand the modern crypto bro. I've met some truly insufferable people. The term "New Money" doesn't even do enough justice to how horrible these people behave.

Oh, you mean the very pleasant "enjoy being poor" characters?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#656

Post by mattwilsonn888 »

jjeaff wrote: post #188
mattwilsonn888 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Says a lot about this site's bias that this even needs to me said (how under a rock do you have to be not to know the macro crash happening right now isn't localized to crypto?). Your comment should either be so obvious that it isn't necessary or so obvious that its the top comment.

I thought crypto was supposed to be a hedge against the markets.

"The Markets" aren't what's causing a downturn in "the markets" or in crypto. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct effect on the price of everything.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#657

Post by mattwilsonn888 »

epolanski wrote: post #425
rot13xor wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crypto believers told me US dollar would enter hyperinflation very soon and Bitcoin will be the only viable currency because it has a finite supply.

Why something that has a finite supply would be viable as a currency. Since it's deflative all the incentive is holding, not spending. Why buy a house for 5 bitcoins now, if I can get it at 4 bitcoins 3 months from now..What if I could get it at 1 bitcoin in 3 years...crazy right..? And no one spends, because the incentive is not here. Our economies are all based on people wanting to spend or invest rather than stock…

How is saving for the future somehow bad? People will spend on what's important and the bullshit will go bankrupt. Welcome to reality.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#658

Post by mattwilsonn888 »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #596
rot13xor wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crypto believers told me US dollar would enter hyperinflation very soon and Bitcoin will be the only viable currency because it has a finite supply.

Finite supply doesn't even matter anymore since exchanges are now operating like banks with fractional reserves, loans and everything. Through credit they can inflate away the value of cryptocurrencies as much as they want. The entire financial system was reinvented on top of bitcoin, it's the worst possible outcome.

> entire financial system was reinvented on top of bitcoin

You can build shit on top of anything. But you can't build anything worthwhile on top of shit. Bitcoin at least has a solid, extractable, base.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#659

Post by nurettin »

UnpossibleJim wrote: post #260
IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…

I write execution systems for hedge funds. Don't have fancy quantstatistician titles.

Stock market has something called "fundamentals" which gives you insights into the real value of stocks. If a company invests $1bn to develop their business, their value will go up. Major oil producer goes to war? Crude oil futures will go up. 100% every time. It is not rocket science, and no astrology is involved.

It is what people do that turns it into a gambling machine. They try to predict tomorrow's price by looking at chicken entrails and they get cocky and confident during bull runs. This behavior is not restricted to the crypto space.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#660

Post by noxer »

giaour wrote: post #530
noxer wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously I didn't not attempt to cover ever possible case and personality you can think of that wasn't the goal anyway. Someone who gambles doesn't fall in the category of "risk intolerant" anyway. Beside that in "traditional" gambling the odds are against you so the whole risk/reward ration is out the window and "only a small lose over your whole lifetime" doesn't change this. I would never encourage anyone to just…

"Betting 10K on black" was meant to be a metaphor for buying 10K of cryptocurrency. Just like there are professional cryptocurrency traders, there are professional gamblers, but everyone else playing the game is expected to lose money to the sharks. The example you provide of purchasing a fragile collectible is similar; almost all collectibles (be they fine art, beanie babies, or NFTs) lose value, so purchasing one i…

You can not professionally bet on black. What you think of as professional gamblers is probably something like poker that has nothing to do with a high risk/reward investment/speculation. Anyway you try really hard to not understand what I said so if you insist that high risk/reward means it must be gambling and the risk to loose everything must so much higher than winning anything then you simply dont know of any good opportunity. Might be side effect of dismissing everything at first sight. Either way I wont reply any further.
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