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Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

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61–70 of 123 posts

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#61
post #51

I grow tired of Kurzweil's vague arguments against people who disagree with his vague predictions. What I think Kurzweil doesn't understand is that in any argument about what's going to happen in the future, the onus of proof inevitably lies with the guy saying "This is what's going to happen", not the guy saying "Ehh, maybe not". I don't know what's going to happen in the future, and I don't pretend to know what's g…

I agree with your conclusions, but

> the onus of proof inevitably lies with the guy saying "This is what's going to happen", not the guy saying "Ehh, maybe not".

I'd say that the onus lies on the one making conjunctions instead of disjunctions. Often, negative predictions are disjunctions, but this isn't always the case: Compare "in 2100, North America will be inhabited by humans" with "Ehh, maybe not."

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#62
post #43
post #23

Allen writes that "the Law of Accelerating Returns (LOAR). . . is not a physical law." I would point out that most scientific laws are not physical laws, but result from the emergent properties of a large number of events at a finer level. A classical example is the laws of thermodynamics (LOT). If you look at the mathematics underlying the LOT, they model each particle as following a random walk. Oh that's a terribl…

>Oh that's a terrible point! Thermodynamics laws are nothing like predictions about the future. I would have thought linguistic slight of hand like this is beneath Kurzweil. Could you elaborate on this? I'm not a huge Kurzweil fan, but as far as I can tell he's saying something reasonable here - that when he talks about LOAR, he's describing a phenomenon rather than a physical process, and that this is an accepted us…

I thought it was unreasonable for him to choose to compare to the second law of thermo, which is lawful in a much stronger way (very precisely stated, understood in a quantitative way at microfoundations...) than the pattern in accelerating returns that he's pointing out. There are dozens or hundreds of comparisons he could have made, he didn't need to pick one which is so central and stable that thinking one has found a way around it has become a classic sign of being a crank. It would be more reasonable to choose to compare to some other pattern that is generally understood to be important in economics --- e.g., returns to specialization or returns to capital investment.

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#63
post #29

What about energy? It's true that if you look at most areas of technology they are advancing rapidly. Except energy. Energy has stagnated since the 1950s. I'm on the fence on this issue, but there are many very intelligent and knowledgeable people who are predicting a kind of anti-singularity: in the 21st century, fossil fuel depletion will send us way back, perhaps even de-industrialize most societies. Is our civili…

Solve the amount of raw collection (speaking of "next generation" energy technologies), and some leakage in the storage and delivery becomes acceptable. It remains a problem that you can peck at, over time.

For the U.S., I see a/the primary crisis that is addressable as being energy. And solving it would, directly and indirectly, re-invigorate our economy and provide an entire sector not just of jobs but of careers / career growth. And education.

That the current Administration didn't jump into this aggressively, has been of enormous disappointment to me.

That would be some leadership. Chart the course (course corrections allowed), and advocate -- including with that bully pulpit -- to make it so.

Given that we don't have such leadership (which would be unusual, admittedly), it will have to be bottom up. I just hope that's enough.

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#64
post #54
post #51

I grow tired of Kurzweil's vague arguments against people who disagree with his vague predictions. What I think Kurzweil doesn't understand is that in any argument about what's going to happen in the future, the onus of proof inevitably lies with the guy saying "This is what's going to happen", not the guy saying "Ehh, maybe not". I don't know what's going to happen in the future, and I don't pretend to know what's g…

IMHO, the future cannot be predicted. Period. I'm not talking impossible-as-in-hard. I am talking impossible-as-in-perpetual-motion. Nice well-behaved linear Newtonian systems can be modeled and predicted. There are systems that are chaotic but that can be modeled in the aggregate very well too, like thermodynamic systems and certain kinds of fluid flow. Life isn't like any of that. Life is complex, chaotic, computat…

Of course, predicting the future with 100% certainty is impossible. But that doesn't mean that making predictions is a mug's game. Predicting the future, with appropriate levels of uncertainty, is a very sensible thing to do with your time. I, for instance, predict that if I wander down to Cheeseboard in twenty minutes I'll find that they're selling delicious pizza. And I predict that if I eat that pizza, then it won't poison me. These are all useful predictions, which may be wrong, but are useful nonetheless.

It's only when you start sticking inappropriate error bars on your predictions that it becomes a problem. Kurzweil predicts things which are unlikely or perhaps impossible as having probabilities near 100%.

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#65
post #29

What about energy? It's true that if you look at most areas of technology they are advancing rapidly. Except energy. Energy has stagnated since the 1950s. I'm on the fence on this issue, but there are many very intelligent and knowledgeable people who are predicting a kind of anti-singularity: in the 21st century, fossil fuel depletion will send us way back, perhaps even de-industrialize most societies. Is our civili…

I brought up the exact same objection when Kurzweil spoke at my college. He pointed out that the installed cost-per-watt and total installed capacity of PV exhibits an exponential trend over the ~30 years of available data. He extrapolated that within 20 years, 100% of the world's energy could be provided by photovoltaic panels.

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#66
post #30

Another response: Kurzweil also ignores economics. The advance of technology is driven in part by economic forces. Computing power may stagnate not because we have reached physical limits but because present-day computers are good enough for what 98% of the market wants. I see this trend developing. If anything, the trend in consumer computing is toward less powerful but lower-power and more portable computing device…

Gaming alone will keep driving computer growth for a long long time.

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#67
post #14

It's startling to me that everything I do comes from 50 megabytes of source code.

It also doesn't count the crazy amount of epigenetics that occurs too, and the specialization that becomes emergently interactive with the environment of other cells and outer world. Still 50Mb is crazy small for what you'd think the genome would be.

It's actually not crazy small considering what you can expect from natural selection (strongly constrained by the bit error rate in reproduction, more weakly constrained by the total number of selection events in the population since some earlier less complex point). And remember it's specifying the learning infant, not the learned human.

(I plan to write more about the likely information content in a reply to another comment.)

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#68
post #29

What about energy? It's true that if you look at most areas of technology they are advancing rapidly. Except energy. Energy has stagnated since the 1950s. I'm on the fence on this issue, but there are many very intelligent and knowledgeable people who are predicting a kind of anti-singularity: in the 21st century, fossil fuel depletion will send us way back, perhaps even de-industrialize most societies. Is our civili…

China is starting a +1 billion dollar project to create a liquid thorium fission reactor (not fusion). The amount of thorium in the world is greater than the amount of copper, tin and some other metals, the amount of usable uranium is around the level of platinum. A working thorium reactor was created in the 1960s, and once china makes a few and show the world its a repeatable process, investors and banks world wide will be willing to invest in these reactors.

http://thoriumremix.com/2011/

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#69
post #25
post #14

It's startling to me that everything I do comes from 50 megabytes of source code.

It's startling to me that everything I do comes from 50 megabytes of source code. This fact was a result of the mapping of the human genome, and has since been proven wrong. But like many such facts it has a certain "stickiness" to the human brain. I expect to be hearing it for many years. I tried finding the paper which found that the complexity of mRNA or tRNA (or some other kind, I forget) produced in the brain ma…

Every creature starts from a single cell. At that point the only difference between a mouse and a human is the DNA, right? Isn't mRNA and tRNA is produced from DNA? It's been a long time since high school. So I don't see why it isn't 50MB.

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#70
post #23

Allen writes that "the Law of Accelerating Returns (LOAR). . . is not a physical law." I would point out that most scientific laws are not physical laws, but result from the emergent properties of a large number of events at a finer level. A classical example is the laws of thermodynamics (LOT). If you look at the mathematics underlying the LOT, they model each particle as following a random walk. Oh that's a terribl…

It seems to me that Kurzweil is on rather strong grounds when he argues in effect that 25Mbytes is a safe conservative upper bound on the information needed to specify a human infant brain. The relevant information content of the epigenetic stuff is unlikely to be tens of megabytes, and extremely unlikely to be hundreds of megabytes. Otherwise, it's hard to see how we could've overlooked such a high proportion of non-DNA design information being passed around in all the work being done on genetics. It's also hard to see how so much extra information would stay stable against mutation-ish pressures unless its copy error rate was much lower than DNA, and hard to see how we'd've overlooked all the machinery that would accomplish that.

Moreover, I think 25M bytes is probably a very conservative upper bound, so that the relevant uncompressable complexity of what computer scientists need to design for general AI is likely no more than 1M bytes. A lot of actual brain stuff is likely to be description of the physical layer that silicon engineers won't care about, because they do the physical layer in a completely different way (silicon and masks and resists and hardest of hard UV and two low digital voltages, not wet tendrils groping toward each other in the dark and washing each other with neurotransmitters). A significant amount of actual brain stuff is likely to be application layer stuff that we don't need (e.g., the Bearnaise sauce effect, and fear of heights and snakes) and optimizations that we don't strictly need (all sorts of shortcuts for visual processing and language grammar and so forth, when more general-purpose mechanisms would still suffice to pass a Turing test). A lot of brain stuff is likely to be stuff in common with a fish, much of which we already know how to implement from scratch. And all brain stuff seems pretty likely to be encoded rather inefficiently: lots of twisty little protein substructures and nucleic acid binding sites are unlikely to be nearly as concise as the kind of mathematical or programming language notation that describes what's going on.

When Kurzweil writes "do not appreciably add" I understand him to be willing to stand by roughly the quantitative information theoretical claims I made at first (25Mbytes, tens of Mbytes, hundreds of Mbytes). When you write "profoundly wrong ... add hugely" I am unable to tell what you are claiming. How many uncompressable bits of design information you are talking about? Perhaps you believe that natural selection pounded out and mitosis reliably propagates 200M uncompressable bytes of brain design information? or 1G bytes? As above, I think that is probably false. Or perhaps I should read "hugely" as "vitally" and understand that you merely mean that the epigenetic information might be less than a million uncompressable bytes but still if you corrupt it badly you have a dead or hopelessly moronic infant. If that's what you mean, I think you are factually correct, but also don't think that that fact contradicts Kurzweil's argument.

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