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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#541

Post by UnpossibleJim »

FabHK wrote: post #504
surfpel wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is some very interesting and fun maths involved in this process that is beyond the scope of general investing. Are there some search terms or resources you would recommend looking into to learn more about this fun maths?

Look at the CAPM for the financial content, and mean-variance optimisation for the maths. It's basically minimising a quadratic function, but in many dimensions, with two constraints - the efficient frontier . You use Lagrange multipliers and arrive at a neat linear system. Lots of fun parabolas and hyperbolas :-)

Awesome! Thank you!

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#542

Post by UnpossibleJim »

MattyMc wrote: post #423
UnpossibleJim wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…

> What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I have a MSC in Statistics, studied quantitative finance. Generally I'd agree with you. For general investing there's often little math involved other than some simple ratios and comparisons. Three numbers I look at most often are the Price-to-Sales ratio, Gross Profit %, and annual revenue growth. There's no complex math involved here at all. Where investi…

Thank you, so much =)

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#543

Post by dropnerd »

Zetaphor wrote: post #514
jonathan-adly wrote: post #63

It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months like this, and lots of the HN audience would be worried about layoffs. The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles. If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS…

The only thing more annoying than people talking about crypto is people complaining about people talking about crypto. You're just perpetuating the attention cycle. I've been DCA'ing ETH for a few years now and have somehow managed to both not make it my entire identity, and not constantly complain about the people who do. The only time I hear about crypto outside of my crypto-specific social spheres is people dunkin…

where are the builders?

are they even on hn anymore?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#544

Post by sangnoir »

faraggi wrote: post #532
TekMol wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth Finally? Bitcoin has been losing 50% of its value 4 times during the last 10 years. It even lost 80% of its value multiple times.

You failed to mention that despite those falls, it is still up 100s of times its initial value. This comment is worse than the media trying to portray a specific story by presenting data partially.

> You failed to mention that despite those falls, it is still up 100s of times its initial value

Should we also benchmark stock prices against IPO prices? That information is only useful (and applicable) to those who go in at the beginning,and that is a small (and shrinking) proportion of overall traders. Apple being down 15% YoY is useful to more people than knowing it's up 25000% since it's IPO decades ago.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#545

Post by azth »

cableshaft wrote: post #539
azth wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Islamic financial model has not been looked at properly by non-Muslims. It works, but it won't allow a few people to get rich by manipulating the market or by lending out money as we have in the rest of the world today.

Considering it forbids making interest, that would be a seismic shift, although it is interesting and worth looking into. Wikipedia makes it sound like Muslim countries are having difficulties sticking with the 'no interest' premise, though: "Islamic banking and finance — the industry built around avoiding interest and other financial practices found in violation of sharia (Islamic law) — has been both praised and cr…

Islamic finance goes back way before the present day manifestation. Many "Islamic finance providers" aren't Islamic FYI. So when reading a wikipedia article or any other source, that must be taken into consideration.

Yes, prohibiting interest is a seismic shift, but at the end of the day, it's going to be better off for everyone. Islam lays outside the capital-communist spectrum, and is basically the best of all worlds.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#546

Post by azth »

cableshaft wrote: post #539
azth wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Islamic financial model has not been looked at properly by non-Muslims. It works, but it won't allow a few people to get rich by manipulating the market or by lending out money as we have in the rest of the world today.

Considering it forbids making interest, that would be a seismic shift, although it is interesting and worth looking into. Wikipedia makes it sound like Muslim countries are having difficulties sticking with the 'no interest' premise, though: "Islamic banking and finance — the industry built around avoiding interest and other financial practices found in violation of sharia (Islamic law) — has been both praised and cr…

Islamic finance goes back way before the present day manifestation. Many "Islamic finance providers" aren't Islamic FYI. So when reading a wikipedia article or any other source, that must be taken into consideration. For example, the "fixed markup" financing has been heavily criticized by Islamic scholars as basically nothing but interest. We definitely need better financing models.

Yes, prohibiting interest is a seismic shift, but at the end of the day, it's going to be better off for everyone. Islam lays outside the capital-communist spectrum, and is basically the best of all worlds.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#548

Post by robobonobo »

jfengel wrote: post #458
vladoski wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is a "dollar" tangible? It's just a number on a paper.

There is a very large organization out there who pays in those dollars and demands taxes in those dollars. If you want to live in a certain piece of dirt, you will deal with that organization. That dirt is very tangible. So is the vast organization running that dirt: it builds roads, runs a military, and (in extreme cases) sends out people with guns if you don't pay those taxes. That makes those dollars pretty darn t…

I think the point being made is that we assign a value to arbitrary things. People often cite cryptocurrency as not having real tangible value but the same could be said about anything we collectively assign some value to it.

I'd further argue that nothing truly has tangible value because by definition, value is an intangible concept. The question isn't whether it's tangible, but whether its value to risk ratio is good enough for you.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#549

Post by cableshaft »

bendtheblock wrote: post #248
colesantiago wrote: post #10

I hope it ALL goes away. I completely hate this space with every vested bone in my body. Even if it takes a huge recession to wipe these cryptobros and casino tokens out, I would be glad. Obviously would not like the collateral damage that this inflicts on all these so called small 'crypto investors' but as long as this triggers tight regulations to make these tokens, illegal, unusable and banned completely as to mak…

Regulation can’t come soon enough. These are risky assets at best. People are getting hurt. Just think how much real tech talent has been wasted on this pointless experiment. This could have gone into fintech, greentech, healthtech, proptech etc anything else really that creates real value.

Or adtech, or more adtech, or even more adtech, or how about some adtech?

That's pretty much what the majority of tech companies boil down to nowadays, or at least some free service (or paid + ads!) that's a trojan horse to get ad revenue.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#550

Post by kodah »

IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

Imagine this same statement but about people that own houses. Houses also serve as an investment to the layperson and in certain places have contributed to a higher barrier to entry for others.

> It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable homeowners are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "home investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane economic babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achieved better financial results than you did while only doing 1/1000 of the work to get there. I truly hate the fact that these people are so rich. It makes me want to move to Alaska and just try to ignore society for the rest of my days.

> This came off as pretty bitter. I apologize, but I am bitter, and I'm having a shit couple weeks.

Not trying to criticize you too much; I'm more reflecting on this text because this is how I catch myself feeling about people who have participated in the inflation in the bay area with respect to homes.

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