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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#511

Post by yunohn »

gsibble wrote: post #98

I feel bad for people losing money, but crypto has not lived up to its potential at all, remains a solution looking for a problem, and is an environmental disaster. I used to be a huge believer. Brian Armstrong gave me my first Bitcoin in 2011 at District in SOMA. Electricity was included in my rent so I bought 10 video cards and mined for about two years on 5 systems. At a company I founded, I use Bitcoin to pay for…

> I'll gladly exchange crypto's price for less crypto bros. My cost basis is around $150 so I have a long ways to go before I care that much.

This entire viewpoint made a lot of sense until this final sentence. Your point is that you’re okay the market crashed because your cost basis is 150$ and BTC is still at 28.5k$?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#512

Post by nathanvanfleet »

id wrote: post #274
IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

There are also those of us who played with Bitcoin when it emerged, found it promising and mined it or bought some. Who took some profits along the way and never promoted it. Who still think it's a useful concept, _despite_ the hype that gets too much at times. For what it's worth, you seem consumed by your envy. Accept that crypto investors, even the most stupid ones, took a risk you didn't take and were rewarded ha…

"Who still think it's a useful concept"

Narrator: It wasn't

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#514

Post by Zetaphor »

jonathan-adly wrote: post #63

It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months like this, and lots of the HN audience would be worried about layoffs. The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles. If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS…

The only thing more annoying than people talking about crypto is people complaining about people talking about crypto. You're just perpetuating the attention cycle.

I've been DCA'ing ETH for a few years now and have somehow managed to both not make it my entire identity, and not constantly complain about the people who do.

The only time I hear about crypto outside of my crypto-specific social spheres is people dunking on crypto and NFT's completely unprompted. We get it, you don't like it, move on.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#515

Post by InitialLastName »

Ekaros wrote: post #510
InitialLastName wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in theory, stocks and housing are underpinned by intrinsic assets (i.e. things that exist in the real world and/or intersubjective agreements whose value and status are enforced by people with guns). Crypto doesn't have that quality even hypothetically (except to the extent that people insist it does), which pushes it toward the same category as many of the well-known financial scams (which were characterize…

I would only use pyramid scheme to mean rather specific structures. Like many MLMs are, where revenue and profit for individuals is generated by their recruitment activities and so-on. Not in general getting more people in a bubble. Just like Ponzi is centralized system where central actor pays out to old investors with new investors money. Not an open market where anyone can enter and leave at any time.

You're right, I've updated to correct the wording.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#516

Post by robocat »

erulabs wrote: post #408
robocat wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Transfers of wealth from productive to unproductive industries arent risks worth rewarding Down that path lies authoritarianism: who decides what is productive? Is art productive? Is your comment on HN productive? Is beer productive? Is Haskell productive? Are you productive? It isn’t hard to argue most everything is non-productive. Remove all non-productive uses of money or time, and what is left?

It's not surprising to me whatsoever that within that same sentence that as you said, "leads to authoritarianism", is a reference to absolute morality and sin. The scariest part of this line of thinking being so common is that it has happened! We've bench-marked humanity towards productivity before: dosed drinking water with amphetamines instead of fluoride and outlawed art and mandated labor at tank factories. Produ…

Thanks: I hadn’t thought of it as say Puritan echos; but yes, telling others what they should and shouldn’t do with their time and resources definitely has religious (any kind) and political (both left and right) facets.

There is not an equivalent 1st amendment “right” to spend our time and money as we will. Too many people just spout an opinion on what we should be “allowed” to do: without thinking of how that could be used against them.

It drives me crazy how willing so many people are to decide what is best for others: the rich, the poor, the disabled, the foreign. And how little insight people have that their own choices are definitely pure waste in the eyes of others.

When did liberty get debased?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#517

Post by logifail »

noxer wrote: post #497
logifail wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but see it as to high of a risk to put 10k into something that could go to zero but it also could go to 100k or even more. That does not make much sense You could walk into a betting shop and put 10k on all kinds of things that will most likely go to zero but have a finite probability of going to 100k or even more. Q: How do you suggest determining the odds of success? Most of us can't invest in every 10k opportuni…

If the odds are obviously against you its not useful ofc. If you think there is a 50% chance you lose everything then you should also see a 50% chance that you make over 100% profit if that is not realistic its probably not the right thing.

> If the odds are obviously against you

Can you define "obviously"?

Spoiler, but for financial investments, there are no [genuine] odds. That's kind of my point about the efficient markets hypothesis.

For example, Tesla was at $88.60 on January 3, 2020. It's at $728 now (and peaked[?] at $1222-ish in November 2021].

Presumably there were not very many people who, in January 2020, thought Tesla would increase in value, or it wouldn't have been at $88.60 for very long.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#518

Post by [deleted] »

NotAnEnemy wrote: post #324
gsibble wrote: post #98

I feel bad for people losing money, but crypto has not lived up to its potential at all, remains a solution looking for a problem, and is an environmental disaster. I used to be a huge believer. Brian Armstrong gave me my first Bitcoin in 2011 at District in SOMA. Electricity was included in my rent so I bought 10 video cards and mined for about two years on 5 systems. At a company I founded, I use Bitcoin to pay for…

I will probably trade my karma for this comment, but have you looked into other protocols ? You mention the processing fees and the finality time, I've heard of several projects that are already better than Ethereum on this such as Hedera Hashgraph, Avalanche or Algorand. Saying that "crypto has not lived up to its potential at all" merely 12 years after Satoshi mined the first bitcoin is laughable if anything. It to…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#519

Post by [deleted] »

TekMol wrote: post #67
IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth Finally? Bitcoin has been losing 50% of its value 4 times during the last 10 years. It even lost 80% of its value multiple times.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#520

Post by napoleon_thepig »

logifail wrote: post #335
UnpossibleJim wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…

> What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? Given the apparently inability of active funds to routinely outperform passive funds[0], "not much" would be my response. One could be really cynical and reduce it to: some people get lucky, some of the time. That's all. [0] https://www.ft.com/content/06317e0e-b6bf-4fdc-9255-cf664cb92... ( https://archive.ph/NumMp )

This is just... wrong, to put it mildly.

When it comes to serious financial modeling in big firms, everything from PDEs and stochastic calculus to cutting edge forecasting models and deep learning is fair game.

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