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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#331
post #192

I have been sitting on cash since end of last year, I am finally seeing opportunities to buy at reasonable price: stocks and crypto. Stocks, cryptos, houses: people kept buying no matter the price, even though, it was so obvious that those prices were not sustainable. And we are finally seeing a proper correction. I think, houses are next in line.

> I have been sitting on cash since end of last year, How do you feel about the recent spick in inflation? I have also been sitting on some cash for a year, and its buying power has definitely fallen. I find it now hard to see if prices will fall or wags will go up, so the cash I have will be of less relative worth.

Imagine if you had invested that cash in Rivian last year. You would be down about 80%. Compared to the ~8% inflation we have seen in the last year, suddenly holding cash seems like a pretty good deal.

The Fed is basically trying to control inflation by inducing a recession. Holding cash is generally ill advised during times of high inflation, but holding assets during a recession can be pretty painful as well. At least with cash, you can buy the dip if you are so inclined.

If you haven't already, take a look at I Bonds. Those are safe, and have returns tied to inflation. Also, it is probably a good idea to start thinking about how and when you might want to invest your cash. It already feels like there are some good deals out there. But if inflation persist and interest rates keep rising, I can only imagine things will get cheaper still.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boom & bust cycles seem to be a built in “feature” of market economies. The architects are not trying to create booms and busts per se, but they are trying to manage them so they aren’t as devastating as 1929.

Whereas permanent poverty is a built in feature of non-market economies. Seems like an easy choice to make.

Permanent poverty is built into this economy for all but a very very lucky few. We can do better, and framing the options as market-economy (what we have) and non-market-economy (everything else) is a false dichotomy. Markets can exist without the second-guilded-age capitalism we're in right now.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#333
> I'm hoping this crash and those in the future rid the space of the toxic backrooms these $30,000 jpegs provide access to and get us to collectively work on building really exciting cool new things

None of this prevents people from working on cool things, cryptocurrency is just a dead-end technology without much potential to create cool things. I don't think it can be denied that the concept of bitcoin is pretty interesting from a technology perspective, but in terms of practical utility there's really not much blood to squeeze from this stone.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For many/most, a stable coin was the exact opposite of a bet. It's not mean to grow in value, it's not meant to lose value, it's just meant to follow USD. They didn't think they were taking a bet, they thought they were storing their assets in something equals to US dollar. That's what the whole industry has been telling them, that's why they are called STABLEcoin.

Whats the point of storing your life savings in something tied to the US dollar instead of just holding it in US dollars? I genuinely don't understand.

So, several answers - for someone in a priviliged economy, you can more easily deploy this capital to gain a return (deposit in a dex, etc). For people in less favorable conditions without access to USD, it's a way to access a relatively stable currency.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#335

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…

> What real math is involved in predicting the stock market?

Given the apparently inability of active funds to routinely outperform passive funds[0], "not much" would be my response.

One could be really cynical and reduce it to: some people get lucky, some of the time. That's all.

[0] https://www.ft.com/content/06317e0e-b6bf-4fdc-9255-cf664cb92... ( https://archive.ph/NumMp )

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#336

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

I have no problem with people winning the lotto. It happens. People get lucky. What I hate is people who win the damn lottery pretending they're geniuses who are on the right side of history changing the world. That's what much of the crypto ecosystem sounds like. Fxxk off. You won the lottery.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#337
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this thread reads as very weird to me, it's liking I'm watching the SV tech bubble manufacture consent in real time. In reality, crypto has been tracking the market almost 1:1 for like 6 months now.

Bitcoin is a bubble, but their 500k salary with bonuses is not. Go figure.

I just don't get why people think this is unique to crypto. Crypto is maybe 4% of my total net worth, but literally every asset aside from my home has been deep in the red for weeks now. Hell, my high volatility ETFs are way worse off than my crypto.

People either aren't paying attention to the markets writ large, or have an axe to grind.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#339

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…

>I don't see a huge amount of difference in crypto except for physical assets, which don't cover the stock price for public companies, generally.

Stocks represent part of real businesses which produce real goods or real services. So they are tangible.

Crypto are just some bits somewhere. They don't represent anything meaningful.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#340
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.

I wish we had a better phrase than "pyramid scheme", because IMO anything that's a "scheme" has people who know better at one end, and I really don't think there's anyone involved in crypto that is deliberately "winning". What's a phrase for when everyone is getting scammed, and not by any one person, but by an idea? Where there are no winners, only lucky and unlucky. Pyramid trap? Pyramid quagmire? IDK, but "scheme"…

The phrase is I think, "Greater Fool Theory".
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