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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe trying to centrally plan the money supply is the same losing game as centrally planning your steel production? You kinda never win unless you stop playing.

So you're suggesting we go back to each private bank issuing their own bank notes?

People like to put up binary choices. Bitcoin Vs. Dollars, Gold Vs. Yuan, Private bank money vs. really bad managed money supply.

I am in the opinion that we should experiment with models other than a bunch of academics with no real practical experience getting together every month and deciding on the fate of the world economy. I am sure we could come up with something better.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#282
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did anyone actually buy NFTs or was it just a bunch of people saying "this is worth X"?

It was the perfecting money laundering vehicle. "I made a picture of an ape and 'some random anonymous person' bought it for $1M!"

How is that money laundering? You'd have to buy ethereum with cash, but at that point why bother with the NFT? Just sell the Ethereum on coinbase and you've laundered the money.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#283
Oh yeah baby! Here's my top 5 reasons...

5. Crypto bros deserve a punch in the face. If you don't feel that way, it's probably because you're a crypto bro. The world is secretly (or not) cheering for this to all burn to the ground because it's easy to perceive people who promote crypto as obnoxious swindlers. Really, they are. Sorry, if this isn't a good reason, but I'll just spill those feelings out right there before making some more reasoned arguments...

4. Crypto not useful in a real way. Speculative investing, money laundering, hiding wealth, pyramid schemes. I'm a tech guy and I have no idea how I would go about acquiring crypto currency then using it to pay for something tangible of real value without eating an exorbitant amount of fees and taking my chances moving stable fiat currency in to a highly volatile asset. I know here are exceptions, but let's be real, crypto in 2022 is about creating shady financial tooling.

3. Crypto's externalized costs make it expensive to society while providing little benefit. Graphics card shortages, energy usage and global warming, brain drain from other real tech problems, aiding and abetting criminal activities like money laundering. What are the benefits that make up for any of that?

2. People losing savings sucks, but the longer crypto insanity goes on the worse that's going to be. Taking a statistical view, unsophisticated investors almost certainly will be taken advantage of in unregulated markets. The longer this insanity goes on the worse that's going to get. End it now and fewer real people with real savings are going to get hurt.

... and the real reason we should all be excited about...

1. I used to be excited about blockchain technologies. I think there are some really great uses for them. But then speculative investing in crypto became a craze and that kind of swamped out everything else interesting. If speculative investing becomes no longer feasible, hopefully we can start to get some focus on some of the more interesting and beneficial applications.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#284

I'm genuinely confused. This current crash is not nearly as bad as several recent crashes. The fall in price in the big coins (Eth, BTC) seems downright modest. A bunch of new meme coins got obliterated, which is also normal and completely predictable. Why are people treating this as if it's going to be the fall of crypto? Because a peg broke? Have people not heard of Mt. Gox?

Yeah, this thread reads as very weird to me, it's liking I'm watching the SV tech bubble manufacture consent in real time. In reality, crypto has been tracking the market almost 1:1 for like 6 months now.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#286

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…

It's important to understand that your average Series 6,7,63-licensed "investment advisor" knows less about the stock market than your average crypto bro. They just follow a script of "invest into retirement-target fund over the long term". None of them adjust anything based on market conditions unless you get into "family office" territory at (at the very least) over 100 million in assets. A lot of people make the mistake thinking "investment advisor" bros know anything.

- former "investment advisor" with all those licenses, CFA, etc

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of people I know who are into crypto buy the hype and believe their own bullshit. The cynical opportunists seem to be a minority.

11 years now I fall into the category of people you are all collectively referring to as "crypto bros" The only difference being I don't shill pyramid schemes on the internet for profit. I kinda sit back and wait and take profit when it makes sense to me. I certainly don't tell other people about it when I do it.

I wouldn't call you a crypto bro then. I've mined and traded Bitcoin for around the same amount of time, so I can say comfortably that those in our situation have seen the cycles, and are rarely surprised, boom or bust. The crypto bros are the hypers and pumpers, infused with plenty of cockiness based on their own confirmation bias.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#288
post #51

Bitcoin hit nearly these lows twice last year in January and July. The crypto market has always been highly volatile, crashes are routine.

That assumes this is an actual pattern and not just extreme volatility of something with no intrinsic value to steady it.

The other day I was driving through a rougher area of town and noticed an old, grubby "Buy bitcoin here!" sign out in front of a convenience store. IMO about the time that started becoming A Thing, the writing was on the wall. I predict tulip mania will end relatively soon.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#289

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

Keep in mind that for every one of the rich crypto babblers, there's probably 5 that got in at the wrong time and are penniless.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Buffett calls gold an “unproductive” asset, which, as defined in his 2011 letter to shareholders, means “assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else — who also knows that these assets will be forever unproductive — will pay more for them in the future.”" Source: https://grow.acorns.com/warren-buffett-why-gold-is-an-unprod...

Yes, that's true of commodities generally. They are worth what people will pay for them; they do not produce cash flows. A pile of copper is not productive either. The fair criticism, I suppose, is that the "compelling reasons" a person might pay for a pile of copper are much more numerous than for gold (or bitcoin). But, OK: think of fine art for a moment... it is also an unproductive asset, the value of which depen…

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