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Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

community.intercoin.org

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Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand. How do you ensure you have enough Luna to maintain the exchange? If you hold enough Luna but then the price of Luna goes down, where do you get your extra Luna from? A run on your promise kills you.

You just mint Luna at will. The problem occurs when the amount of Luna that trades for $1 becomes undefined because nobody is willing to do the trade anymore.

So you’re saying it’s always been a contest of belief.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#242
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how you bodge a stable coin startup. Surely you just mint the tokens in exchange for dollars, and then put ~50% of the dollars in zero risk investments (some form of treasury bonds), and then take the 0.5-1% interest per year as your revenue. Tether currently has $81b marketcap so you could be making $400-800m per year doing basically nothing?

It’s hard to find a bank to take your money, since you’re something that rhymes with money laundering. Tether had a bunch of money stolen from them because the money launderer they used turned out to be a crook. It also takes a long time to get this going and there are moderately high costs to a minimally viable financial entity (reporting, compliance). A few years ago they only had a couple billion which makes it ha…

> something that rhymes with money laundering

Oo, sign me up for some "bunny conjuring", please!

Alternately, "sunny wandering" and "honey squandering" both sound like they could be delightful ways to pass an afternoon. But I can tell you right now that "funny pondering" is hella overrated.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#244

Tether is back up to around $0.98, but volume is high. Somebody is pouring cash into Tether to support the price. Similar over at UST. Price is back up to $0.60, but volume is far above normal. Remember, with a stablecoin, there is no upside to holding . Any indication of risk means it's time to get out. Even if Tether has enough reserves to get the price back to $1, there will be substantial cashing out. That's why…

One upside: 0.5-1% interest per day at Bitfinex.

> Remember, with a stablecoin, there is no upside to holding.

The people running Tether has a stake in the upside. It's this moment where they need to convert their supposed holdings to sustain the price. It's not going to be expensive (maybe even profitable) given the high yield of USDT right now.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You give me a dollar, I give you a digital currency equivalent. When you need your real USD back, you tell me and I give it to you. That means in an ideal world, you have your stable coins backed 1:1 with real USD. Of course, this isn’t always the case, and with Tether, there has been much scrutiny over the years that they do not have the USD collateral to back their stablecoin. Ok, but let’s assume Tether has the US…

Your explanation is incorrect, please see my reply to the comment under yours. You should edit it so people aren’t misinformed.

I removed the section on Terra. Like I said, I didn’t want to get into complicating the explanation, but point taken on the nature of algorithmic stables as opposed to collateralized one. The point I was trying to make was that Terra actually did have collateral, in the form of BTC.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#246
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's much easier to con a greedy person. And you had to be very greedy indeed to convince yourself that 20% interest is a safe investment

> convince yourself that 20% interest is a safe investment So what you're saying is people shouldn't expect to be able to massively multiply their wealth, but that directly contradicts the narrative that "anyone can make it" instead of the wealth and opportunities you're born into determining the likely upper limit of what you can hope for. I'm not disagreeing, but it's absurd to condemn people for falling for "get r…

> that directly contradicts the narrative that "anyone can make it" instead of the wealth and opportunities you're born into determining the likely upper limit of what you can hope for.

It depends on what we understand by "anyone can make it". I would argue that, if understood in terms of "anyone can [become orders of magnitude richer just by picking the right investments]" then that indeed is a narrative that is harmful and should be contradicted. Yes, of course outliers happen, and anyone may become stupidly rich from a low income if they're lucky. That doesn't mean it's a good idea to try, and people on an individual level should be discouraged from taking such huge risks unless they are very consciously aware of the consequences of their likely failure.

The other side of the issue is a systemic one. If a society finds it traumatic to accept that there is a likely upper limit as to what people can hope for based on their wealth and opportunities at birth, there is deeper problem. The problem may be cultural in that a society's members are too instilled with self-centred and unrealistic expectations (i.e. a culture of temporarily embarrassed millionaires), or it may be a deeper economic issue regarding inequality of incomes that makes surviving at certain levels of income without any hope of the smallest improvement leads to greater desperation and dreams of "breaking big". It may be a mix of both.

Coming back to "anyone can make it", it should be defended, but in the sense of "anyone can [reach a level of economic security to live a fulfilling life]". That however is not a principle to encourage the individual through dire straits. Rather, it is a principle that should guide public policy and cultural attitudes as a whole, so as not to have a society like I described earlier. In such a society the population won't feel the need take unrealistic risks only for a chance to get out of a rut or satisfy cultural fantasies. That's not to say it won't happen, anyone can be an outlier.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#247
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can someone explain stablecoins to me? Most online explanations talk about how the currencies are "pegged" to various assets/real world currencies/physical objects/algorithms/cryptocurrencies, however they never explain how the pegging is done. What is happening right now that is causing the price to fall, what prevented it from falling over the last few years, and why isn't that thing preventing it from falling now?

You give me a dollar, I give you a digital currency equivalent. When you need your real USD back, you tell me and I give it to you. That means in an ideal world, you have your stable coins backed 1:1 with real USD. Of course, this isn’t always the case, and with Tether, there has been much scrutiny over the years that they do not have the USD collateral to back their stablecoin. Ok, but let’s assume Tether has the US…

[deleted]

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd probably buy more before it reaches 2K anyway. I was talking more like in a hypothetical scenario where I wake up in the morning and BTC is 2K.

If it was I'd honestly pull back. Cryptocurrency has a future and Bitcoin is as necessarily part of it as much as Netscape and Yahoo were necessary for the web. (Or US robotics and compuserve, pick your loser) The thing itself can survive the collapse of the current winners.

That is a possibility, but I think the point is that if BTC was $2k tomorrow, then whether or not it survives in the long term, it seems highly unlikely to at least some of us that it wouldn't bounce back to substantially above $2k again whatever it's long term fate is. It's a gamble, and I certainly wouldn't put money I can't afford to lose on it, but at some threshold the potential upside becomes significant enough to justify the risk. Where people put that threshold will vary. For me it's well above $2k.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you put your money in some risky 'investment' that you don't fully understand and lose you made a bad decision, you are not a victim. It's like if you burn your money in a Las Vegas casino.

Gambling is an addiction, and doesn’t just come down to poor judgement. There’s a short circuiting that occurs in the pleasure centre that we simply haven’t evolved to handle properly. It’s why even if you’re the most seasoned, calm, financially secure and stoic of people, if I told you that you suddenly won $100M with clear proof, you’d almost shit yourself in excitement, your heart would race. None of us are immune…

It's quite a jump to go from my comment to "gambling is an addiction".

Gambling is not an addiction. Gambling might become an addiction for some people, like many other things might.

The vast majority of people who 'invested' in crypto (or who go to Las Vegas for that matter) are not addicted. They think it's a way to get rich quick, and some did. They may also not have done their homework.

Sometimes when people make bad decisions and lose there simply isn't anyone else to blame. That's life.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#250
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can someone explain stablecoins to me? Most online explanations talk about how the currencies are "pegged" to various assets/real world currencies/physical objects/algorithms/cryptocurrencies, however they never explain how the pegging is done. What is happening right now that is causing the price to fall, what prevented it from falling over the last few years, and why isn't that thing preventing it from falling now?

Matt Levine did a great write up of algorithmic stablecoins here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-11/terra-... "1. You wake up one morning and invent two crypto tokens. 2. One of them is the stablecoin, which I will call “Terra,” for reasons that will become apparent. 3. The other one is not the stablecoin. I will call it “Luna.” 4. To be clear, they are both just things you made up, just numbers o…

One thing I don’t understand here: where does the smart contract get the information of the current luna/usd exchange rate? It can’t be an api call surely, it must be on-chain somehow.
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