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Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

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Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#31
Look at the front page of https://coinmarketcap.com/

There are 10114 different coins listed. Even if cryptos will deliver on the promises of the fully decentralized future, are we going to need that many different instruments?

Today practically all merchants takes Visa and Mastercard. Some even take Amex, and a minuscule amount take BTC. Does anyone take a coin from page 73 of coinmarketcap.com?

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#32

If Tether is backed, then Bitfinex could buy currently-discounted tethers off the market and redeem them for face value, pocketing the difference. The fact this is not happening means they really don't have the money, do they?

They are actually redeeming them on their website for anyone that wants to. > @paoloardoino GM Reminder that tether is honouring USDt redemptions at 1$ via http://tether.to . >300M redeemed in last 24h without a sweat drop. 12:38 AM · May 12, 2022·

You need to show up with $100k to do the redemption. Granted if you did the round trip with only $10k you’re looking at peanuts in arbitrage but it _is_ a way for them to prevent real arbitrage that feeds into itself.

I bet the fact that people wanting to short don’t believe they have the funds doesn’t help. But hey if you are a millionaire short tether might be worth setting up the recurring trade out!

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#34
post #21
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow

There is a correlation between BTC and GPU / graphics card price. And there's the stupid quantities of energy devoted to mining. At some point, processing bitcoin will become uneconomic. It will then be unspendable, and the price will then drop to zero.

If blocks aren’t being mined fast enough, the difficulty level automatically goes down, resulting in a higher reward for the same hash rate. So in theory, processing bitcoin should never become uneconomic.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#36
post #21
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow

There is a correlation between BTC and GPU / graphics card price. And there's the stupid quantities of energy devoted to mining. At some point, processing bitcoin will become uneconomic. It will then be unspendable, and the price will then drop to zero.

After two weeks the difficulty factor should be going down to match the reduced hash rate of the network.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#37
Anything on any market can shift its price to the red or green. Tether and USDC are just tokens, so if there is enough sell pressure and not enough liquidity, the price on an exchange can jump to something else than $1. They are not fixed at a static $1.

It's actually almost never exactly at $1 and the reason why it's immediately pegging back to $1 is because there is an arbitrage opportunity, assuming there is enough backing so that in the worst case the custodian would just buy back the tokens for exactly $1, no matter what the market price is.

Seeing USDT at 0.97 temporarily doesn't mean much more than there is an insane amount of money exiting right now. One exchange can quickly fall to something like 0.97 if there is not enough buy power closer to $1

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#38
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow

Would BTC be worth buying at sub-$2k? I never saw the use-case for it. I’d sooner use a faster, cheaper, more energy-efficient, more centralized crypto like XLM or XRP. But even then: for payments it’s hard to compete with Visa/Mastercard for speed and safety. And as a store of value all crypto is crazy volatile. If BTC goes sub $2k, would anybody reasonably want it anymore or would the emperor have no clothes?

There's probably still some value in it for darknet activities like sales of illicit goods, ransom payments, etc.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#39
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow

Would BTC be worth buying at sub-$2k? I never saw the use-case for it. I’d sooner use a faster, cheaper, more energy-efficient, more centralized crypto like XLM or XRP. But even then: for payments it’s hard to compete with Visa/Mastercard for speed and safety. And as a store of value all crypto is crazy volatile. If BTC goes sub $2k, would anybody reasonably want it anymore or would the emperor have no clothes?

BTC was at $5k on March 2020, before reaching $60k in April 2021. I wouldn't say it's ever gonna die.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#40

If Tether is backed, then Bitfinex could buy currently-discounted tethers off the market and redeem them for face value, pocketing the difference. The fact this is not happening means they really don't have the money, do they?

They are actually redeeming them on their website for anyone that wants to. > @paoloardoino GM Reminder that tether is honouring USDt redemptions at 1$ via http://tether.to . >300M redeemed in last 24h without a sweat drop. 12:38 AM · May 12, 2022·

Only for amounts > $100k. And they’re definitely fractional reserve banking and don’t have $80b in cash
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