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Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

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Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#11
post #5
post #2

Going to be a hell of a ride down. Wouldn’t surprise Me to wake up to sub $20k BTC

If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow

Or, even more comically, "$"20,000,00 BTC, as people try to escape from a sinking tether.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#13

If Tether is backed, then Bitfinex could buy currently-discounted tethers off the market and redeem them for face value, pocketing the difference. The fact this is not happening means they really don't have the money, do they?

They really do have the money, but would rather spend it on Lamborghinis and coke.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#14

If Tether is backed, then Bitfinex could buy currently-discounted tethers off the market and redeem them for face value, pocketing the difference. The fact this is not happening means they really don't have the money, do they?

IDK, according to the graph on CoinMarketCap it has been down to mid-to-low 90s several times in the past, e.g. in early 2020.

Sure it's been really stable for a long time now, but might this just be another "bump"?

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#15

If Tether is backed, then Bitfinex could buy currently-discounted tethers off the market and redeem them for face value, pocketing the difference. The fact this is not happening means they really don't have the money, do they?

In the short term, they have the reserves for sure.

In the short term, this is more of a classic bank-run. The Terra-coin + Luna scared a lot of cryptocoin holders, and now they're running away from another stablecoin.

Even if Bitfinex had the money, the amount of traders leaving USDT has to be a colossal amount. The amount of money Bitfinex can transfer at any given time is limited, so the peg will bend and buckle.

-------

The big question is: does Bitfinex have enough reserves to weather the storm? Not just this short-term storm, but the whole shebang that's about to happen? We will find out... eventually.

UST / Luna had substantial reserves. But it clearly wasn't enough. Probably because Anchor promised 20% gains and there was simply more UST in existence than the amount of USD put into that system.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#16

If Tether is backed, then Bitfinex could buy currently-discounted tethers off the market and redeem them for face value, pocketing the difference. The fact this is not happening means they really don't have the money, do they?

They are actually redeeming them on their website for anyone that wants to.

> @paoloardoino GM Reminder that tether is honouring USDt redemptions at 1$ via http://tether.to . >300M redeemed in last 24h without a sweat drop. 12:38 AM · May 12, 2022·

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#17
post #5
post #2

Going to be a hell of a ride down. Wouldn’t surprise Me to wake up to sub $20k BTC

If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow

Would BTC be worth buying at sub-$2k?

I never saw the use-case for it.

I’d sooner use a faster, cheaper, more energy-efficient, more centralized crypto like XLM or XRP.

But even then: for payments it’s hard to compete with Visa/Mastercard for speed and safety.

And as a store of value all crypto is crazy volatile.

If BTC goes sub $2k, would anybody reasonably want it anymore or would the emperor have no clothes?

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#18

If Tether is backed, then Bitfinex could buy currently-discounted tethers off the market and redeem them for face value, pocketing the difference. The fact this is not happening means they really don't have the money, do they?

Technically, i guess they could "have a little trouble acting so fast", buying everything at $0.9 and back up to $1, and pocket the difference, scolding people for their lack of faith.

Practically? Yeah, it's goner.

Re: Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did

#19
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow

Or, even more comically, "$"20,000,00 BTC, as people try to escape from a sinking tether.

Yeah, this shit creates chaos and makes it impossible to get a good read on the market. Wouldn't be surprised to see a record BTC ATH, though for ignominious reasons
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