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Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

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Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#71

Post by lumost »

joshstrange wrote: post #22
zcw100 wrote: post #7

A better headline would have been, “Tech industry uses scare tactics to try and force people back into the office”. Been there, done that. If it could have been outsourced it would have already been outsourced. Do you really think they were sitting around saying,”I know they cost more but I’m too busy playing golf to bother” and they’re only getting around to it now?

Agreed, wake me up when cheap outsourced developers actually works out. I've yet to see it. I have nothing against foreign developers but most of the outsourcing shops I've had the displeasure of working with are 0.2-0.5X developers at "only" 0.6+X of the cost. I know there are developers in other countries that can run circles around me but they aren't working for pennies. Also this mindset completely disregards thi…

> Sure, for a few years you can coast on what the developers you laid off/fired built but cracks will start to show and you can't just slot in developers like RAM sticks.

This is the key point, software is a creative field - and you ultimately aren't going to get more than maintenance/routine upgrades from an outsourced firm. They simply don't care enough to want to go beyond their contract. You aren't going to be able to get top-tier talent to work in your timezone if that means working a graveyard shift.

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#72

Post by thenerdhead »

TAMSFT051022 wrote: post #46
thenerdhead wrote: post #23

They’ve been saying this for over two decades now. Nothing has changed. We know what the cost of cheaper labor means in software. We also know that people are generally happier working from home if they are tech workers. The companies that embrace remote first or even hybrid scenarios will be the winner in the long run. Happier employees = better outcomes. If my job could be outsourced, it would’ve been ten years ago…

> If my job could be outsourced, it would’ve been ten years ago when I first joined the workforce as a remote employee The difference this time is that we are heading for a recession. Company leadership doesn't want to take the risk of outsourcing while times are good and profits are doubling each year. But when the stock price is in freefall and they are under pressure to cut costs, then the risk/reward of outsourci…

While you bring up great points, similar points were made many years ago.

You still have the most challenging things to work through which are general people/team problems:

- Language barriers

- Timezones

- Craftsmanship/Quality

- Leadership involvement

- etc

I've read over 300 books in the last few years on companies/leadership topics and I would really challenge that this time will be any different regardless of the economic conditions.

The tech industry is still at a deficit for talent. Companies are still hiring faster than ever and the supply is limited between them all and future grads/bootcamps/apprentice programs. India and China have a thriving tech education system and the growth definitely is showing, but most of these companies hiring on full blast already have huge developments for these regions and will continue to expand like US.

While more business opportunities may land in these major regions, the article suggests worker shortages, limited immigration, etc as a means to "offshore" current or future work from the US. I think both the US and these major regions will continue to grow at unprecedented paces. Perhaps slower during a recession, but most of these big companies are growing faster than ever, not showing signs of slowing down too much.

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#73

Post by 1270018080 »

joshstrange wrote: post #22
zcw100 wrote: post #7

A better headline would have been, “Tech industry uses scare tactics to try and force people back into the office”. Been there, done that. If it could have been outsourced it would have already been outsourced. Do you really think they were sitting around saying,”I know they cost more but I’m too busy playing golf to bother” and they’re only getting around to it now?

Agreed, wake me up when cheap outsourced developers actually works out. I've yet to see it. I have nothing against foreign developers but most of the outsourcing shops I've had the displeasure of working with are 0.2-0.5X developers at "only" 0.6+X of the cost. I know there are developers in other countries that can run circles around me but they aren't working for pennies. Also this mindset completely disregards thi…

All of the good foreign developers are in America making 10x more than they would be in their home country.

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#74

Post by tablespoon »

peteradio wrote: post #64
jollybean wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"wake me up when cheap outsourced developers actually works out. " You're missing the point here. They're not going to be hiring from 'body shops' they're just going to be hiring people 'remote' - just like you. Why do you think that you in 'Small Town Ohio' are going to get hired over the guy in France at 80 cents on the dollar, or Poland 60 cents on the dollar, when they have decent language skills. You're going to…

At some point you end up shitting your own bed with this behavior. Development will cease to be lucrative if this plays out, so now you have a deficient technical knowledge base in America and a deficient manufacturing base? What exactly is America's future here? I really don't think you can be deficient in both or there is nothing left but pure balls.

> What exactly is America's future here? I really don't think you can be deficient in both or there is nothing left but pure balls.

Shithole country that can't do shit, with a capitalist upper-class that's rich enough to insulate themselves from the shithole aspects. It's the libertarian utopia we've all dreamed about.

It will last until the foreign societies cease to recognize the American upper-class's paper ownership interests.

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#75

Post by a_imho »

jollybean wrote: post #52
joshstrange wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, wake me up when cheap outsourced developers actually works out. I've yet to see it. I have nothing against foreign developers but most of the outsourcing shops I've had the displeasure of working with are 0.2-0.5X developers at "only" 0.6+X of the cost. I know there are developers in other countries that can run circles around me but they aren't working for pennies. Also this mindset completely disregards thi…

"wake me up when cheap outsourced developers actually works out. " You're missing the point here. They're not going to be hiring from 'body shops' they're just going to be hiring people 'remote' - just like you. Why do you think that you in 'Small Town Ohio' are going to get hired over the guy in France at 80 cents on the dollar, or Poland 60 cents on the dollar, when they have decent language skills. You're going to…

You are assuming remote people are OK with being second or third class employees. I'm not sure how long this is going to be true in the post covid world.

https://elsajohansson.wordpress.com/2017/09/13/what-does-a-w...

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#76

Post by phil21 »

jollybean wrote: post #42
zcw100 wrote: post #7

A better headline would have been, “Tech industry uses scare tactics to try and force people back into the office”. Been there, done that. If it could have been outsourced it would have already been outsourced. Do you really think they were sitting around saying,”I know they cost more but I’m too busy playing golf to bother” and they’re only getting around to it now?

"If it could have been outsourced it would have already been outsourced." You're in for a rude awakening. It wasn't outsourced before because: 1) standard was in-office and 2) no mass movement to validate it 3) 'outsourced overseas' often meant 'poor country'. We are only expanding overseas right now because the quality is good and the price is much better. At least for what we are doing. The Valley is not going away…

> We are only expanding overseas right now because the quality is good and the price is much better.

Indeed. I've been WFH/remote my entire career and have long worked with folks throughout the world. I was considered an outlier for almost all of it.

In the past 12mo this has tectonically shifted. Midsize companies I'm close to who would never have dreamed of "outsourcing" are now instituting US hiring freezes after seeing how well hiring a few developers out of eastern europe went. In many cases the talent is simply better without any cost benefit calculation needed.

Yes, the top-tier rockstar talent (anyone posting on HN is clearly in that club of course) has nothing to worry about. The everyman programmer working on yet another line of business app or CRUD interface is in for an incredibly brutal market over the next decade or two.

Anyone that dismisses this as "outsourcing" is not paying attention. There is little difference working with someone in Toledo Spain vs. Toledo Ohio other than timezone.

Timezone is pretty much the sole remaining argument. However, if you are now 100% remote WFH friendly - why would timezones matter that much? All documentation and process is fully online and asynchronous already so a few hours of overlap a day is more than sufficient for well-run teams on most projects.

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#77

Post by JohnWhigham »

peteradio wrote: post #64
jollybean wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"wake me up when cheap outsourced developers actually works out. " You're missing the point here. They're not going to be hiring from 'body shops' they're just going to be hiring people 'remote' - just like you. Why do you think that you in 'Small Town Ohio' are going to get hired over the guy in France at 80 cents on the dollar, or Poland 60 cents on the dollar, when they have decent language skills. You're going to…

At some point you end up shitting your own bed with this behavior. Development will cease to be lucrative if this plays out, so now you have a deficient technical knowledge base in America and a deficient manufacturing base? What exactly is America's future here? I really don't think you can be deficient in both or there is nothing left but pure balls.

That's why you have to get out as soon as you can. The money in being a code monkey in the West is on borrowed time. The tried and true money is in management. Managing people always pays well.

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#78

Post by MontyCarloHall »

a_imho wrote: post #75
jollybean wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"wake me up when cheap outsourced developers actually works out. " You're missing the point here. They're not going to be hiring from 'body shops' they're just going to be hiring people 'remote' - just like you. Why do you think that you in 'Small Town Ohio' are going to get hired over the guy in France at 80 cents on the dollar, or Poland 60 cents on the dollar, when they have decent language skills. You're going to…

You are assuming remote people are OK with being second or third class employees. I'm not sure how long this is going to be true in the post covid world. https://elsajohansson.wordpress.com/2017/09/13/what-does-a-w...

A compensation gap only matters if it also leads to a gap in living standards. Tech salaries in the US are fairly homogenous with respect to cost of living; a developer in Ohio making an Ohio-adjusted salary would be able to afford similar things as a developer in the Bay Area making a Bay Area salary. (In fact, I'd bet that the Ohioan would be able to afford a much nicer house; CoL does not scale uniformly across goods and services with respect to location.)

However, tech salaries in the US are much higher than tech salaries in Europe even after adjusting for cost-of-living. That is what leads to resentment: a developer in London making a London salary would not be able to afford the same things as a developer in New York making a New York salary.

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#79

Post by jollybean »

a_imho wrote: post #75
jollybean wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"wake me up when cheap outsourced developers actually works out. " You're missing the point here. They're not going to be hiring from 'body shops' they're just going to be hiring people 'remote' - just like you. Why do you think that you in 'Small Town Ohio' are going to get hired over the guy in France at 80 cents on the dollar, or Poland 60 cents on the dollar, when they have decent language skills. You're going to…

You are assuming remote people are OK with being second or third class employees. I'm not sure how long this is going to be true in the post covid world. https://elsajohansson.wordpress.com/2017/09/13/what-does-a-w...

? Nothing I said about that assumed those employees would accept being 'second or third class employees'.

They're going to be 'employees'.

Now - they will be paid less - yes (maybe that's what you meant?)

But that's a function of supply and demand.

They will absolutely accept 'less' because it's where they sit on the supply/demand curve.

Re: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

#80

Post by peteradio »

JohnWhigham wrote: post #77
peteradio wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point you end up shitting your own bed with this behavior. Development will cease to be lucrative if this plays out, so now you have a deficient technical knowledge base in America and a deficient manufacturing base? What exactly is America's future here? I really don't think you can be deficient in both or there is nothing left but pure balls.

That's why you have to get out as soon as you can. The money in being a code monkey in the West is on borrowed time. The tried and true money is in management. Managing people always pays well.

How is the management class supposed to manage technical work they ultimately grow out of touch with? An individual isn't going to be able to project power across an ocean, so why do they need you in particular? Sounds like a race to the bottom as far as the notion of becoming a manager to outsourced labor, I'm doubtful there is enough management work to absorb an influx of former ICs.
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