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Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

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Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#51
post #4

I'm a buyer at this point. We'll see how earnings turn out tomorrow, but no matter how bad the macro environment, I think $COIN at 7 P/E is a good buy long-term.

Don’t try to catch a falling knife.

Catchy phrase, but what is actually wrong with dollar cost averaging through a downturn? It seems to be the only effective way to invest for the long term.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#52
post #31

I’m particularly sad to see Cloudflare’s stock having plummeted. Out of all the tech companies that IPO’d in the past few years, Cloudflare is one that the most potential to excel long term. Developer sentiment towards Cloudflare is comparable to Apple fanboys of the previous decade, and their products are legitimately good, backed with tangible assets (datacenters). They also have consistent growth quarter over quar…

I own some dumb pot companies that are trading at 1x revenue. This market has a ways to go but for people with capital to deploy it’s a gift.

Lots of people who figured they could borrow against their rapidly skyrocketing holdings that are all receiving margin calls at the same time.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#53

Cloudflare is down 71% in that same period. Zoom is down 60%. Speculative pandemic tech darlings are no longer darlings and are being hammered across the board. It's going to be a rough time for anyone who had high hopes for their equity compensation.

My personal rule is living expenses should be salary-bounded, as you can’t have security if you’re living off equity.

But everybody assumes a risk level they’re comfortable with, this works for me.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#54
post #50

So I'm a crypto non-believer. I see it as the ultimate solution looking for a problem. But that doesn't apply to Coinbase because, at its core, Coinbase should be a transactional business that is a proxy for the size of the crypto market (or, more specifically, the crypto trading volume). I don't know enough about the financials of Coinbase however. It could be they have risks unrelated to their transaction business.…

Wouldn't it be a problem for Coinbase if the crypto market all but evaporates?

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#55
i don't see why anyone would want to buy coinbase stock. it's extremely correlated to the broader crypto market with less upside. In a bull market, you could buy bitcoin or maybe be a bit more risky and buy some of the higher tier alt-coins and it would probably give you a 1.00 correlation in bull and bear cycles, but during the bull cycles the coins would skyrocket because they are tied to any major fundamental metrics like balance sheets.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#56

Cloudflare is down 71% in that same period. Zoom is down 60%. Speculative pandemic tech darlings are no longer darlings and are being hammered across the board. It's going to be a rough time for anyone who had high hopes for their equity compensation.

Could be a good time to switch companies and get a new grant on the other hand.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#57
post #31

I’m particularly sad to see Cloudflare’s stock having plummeted. Out of all the tech companies that IPO’d in the past few years, Cloudflare is one that the most potential to excel long term. Developer sentiment towards Cloudflare is comparable to Apple fanboys of the previous decade, and their products are legitimately good, backed with tangible assets (datacenters). They also have consistent growth quarter over quar…

I love CloudFlare engineering, I love the products they build. I don't see how they become something more Akamai 2.0 with a similar market size.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#58
post #29
post #4

I'm a buyer at this point. We'll see how earnings turn out tomorrow, but no matter how bad the macro environment, I think $COIN at 7 P/E is a good buy long-term.

Same. I've also bought Affirm, Shopify, Netflix, Peloton and Roblox in addition to Coinbase since they've all dropped ~70-90% in the last 6 months. I agree they were overvalued, but we seem to be in overreaction territory now. Even if we haven't seen the bottom yet, I think we'll see a lot of upside in these over the next 2-5 years.

Netflix really seems like a loser to me. Every production company has a streaming service now, and most make better content than Netflix. Sure Netflix’s app might be better, but it’s also twice as expensive as every other service. I guess that Netflix’s “replace basic cable” package might work for people who only want one service, but from what I remember most people did not especially like basic cable. Wouldn’t be surprised if Netflix is gone in 20 years.

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#59
post #31

I’m particularly sad to see Cloudflare’s stock having plummeted. Out of all the tech companies that IPO’d in the past few years, Cloudflare is one that the most potential to excel long term. Developer sentiment towards Cloudflare is comparable to Apple fanboys of the previous decade, and their products are legitimately good, backed with tangible assets (datacenters). They also have consistent growth quarter over quar…

So did I, after calling it on their IPO prospectus at the time. [0] It was a good ride from But at one point [1] it was hyped very quickly and had to sell most of it at >$200 after asking and reading the responses from this [1] it was really not a surprise to see through the hype at the time and why it crashed so quickly. [1]

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20707306

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29355360

Re: Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

#60
post #4

I'm a buyer at this point. We'll see how earnings turn out tomorrow, but no matter how bad the macro environment, I think $COIN at 7 P/E is a good buy long-term.

Same -- there are actually a bunch of tech stocks that are think are similarly a good bet right now, for example $NET (Cloudflare). Any other things that look like good buys under the market crush?

Teladoc. Two times sales, a lot of negative sentiment on the stock (which I like to see so long as the business is sustaining).

Bet on the long-term for the segment and their position. Their operating condition is sound and they have plenty of cash. Future returns were pulled forward during the pandemic era for things like remoting xyz (eg Zoom is suffering from that beating now as well). Let the bearishness rip these stocks up (a hard swing back from the insane bullishness previously, which is typical of speculators), take advantage of the stupidity that will abound in the selling down (exactly as it did on the way up).

This is when you start looking at buying opportunities, to generate the returns later (even if it takes years). You take advantage of the big runs to sell to the fools chasing stocks like Teladoc at 6x-7x the present valuation. Buy sound companies with good growth horizons, bet longer-term in your calculating, buy cheaply enough to have a great moat / margin of safety. Rinse and repeat over time. It's all about taking advantage of the rampant irrationality, either direction.

Just don't make the mistake of significantly overpaying and the odds are tilted that much more in your favor.

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