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The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

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Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#101
post #72
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems superficially reasonable, but it looks like the TB2 Bayraktar was used to bomb the fuel depot in Bryansk less than two weeks ago and that's 150km into Russia. They seemed to have used the TB2 the other day on Snake Island. As of a week ago there had been 6 internationally confirmed incidents where a Tb2 was shot down. They were known to have had at least 20 when the war started and have received more sense…

It's a very solvable problem though. At least for countries other than Russia, which might not be technically nimble enough to adapt mid-conflict and under a strong sanctions regime. S-300s/S-400s/Buks and the somewhat rarer western equivalents like the Patriot system just aren't designed to target something flying that slow with that small of a radar cross section. That doesn't mean the drones aren't reasonably easy…

> We rely on fighters to establish air superiority more than SAMs, while the Russians do the opposite. Worst case scenario, F-15s/16s/22s/35s can use cannons and pilots are more adaptable than radar systems. I also suspect that the F-35's sensors at least are far superior to whatever the Russians are relying on.

Or just, ya know, shoot the damn thing.

The specs are well within what you can expect to hit with with an "old enough they give them out like candy" AA gun.

Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#102
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should take a look at the switchblade. The switchblade 300 model has the equivalent of a 40mm grenade as a warhead, 2.7kg weight, endurance of 10 minutes and a range of around 10km all puts it well in that lower end range. Couldn't find any pricing data, but I imagine more COTS approaches could come out pretty cheap. I'm actually surprised we've got man-portable loitering munitions like the switchblade in use bef…

I've seen a claim that Switchblade 300 costs less than USD 7k. No idea how accurate this is tho.

This video says $6k as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PcWS1marOA

The most interesting part is that it flies extremely fast so you'll never see it coming. Particularly how it bursts through a windshield before exploding.

Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#103
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a very solvable problem though. At least for countries other than Russia, which might not be technically nimble enough to adapt mid-conflict and under a strong sanctions regime. S-300s/S-400s/Buks and the somewhat rarer western equivalents like the Patriot system just aren't designed to target something flying that slow with that small of a radar cross section. That doesn't mean the drones aren't reasonably easy…

The problem is that I think it is very hard for a modern fighter jet to engage a slow and low drone with a cannon. Probably it is easier with missles, but not very cost effective. Probably anti-drone drones or some sort of CIWS is going more effective.

I mentioned cannons as the absolute worst case option in case US air-to-air missiles suffer from the same issues as Russian SAMs appear to, and from the perspective of extant US capabilities that could be adapted and rapidly fielded for immediate use. My ultimate point being that we're just way better positioned to handle these drones right now and into the near future than the Russians are or will be.

Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#104
post #2

> Several news sources have reported that a single TB2 drone can be purchased for a million dollars, but Bayraktar, while not giving a precise figure, told me that it costs more. In any event, single-unit figures are misleading; TB2s are sold as a “platform,” along with portable command stations and communications equipment. In 2019, Ukraine bought a fleet of at least six TB2s for a reported sixty-nine million dollar…

No post body was provided.

Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#105
post #2

> Several news sources have reported that a single TB2 drone can be purchased for a million dollars, but Bayraktar, while not giving a precise figure, told me that it costs more. In any event, single-unit figures are misleading; TB2s are sold as a “platform,” along with portable command stations and communications equipment. In 2019, Ukraine bought a fleet of at least six TB2s for a reported sixty-nine million dollar…

You should take a look at the switchblade. The switchblade 300 model has the equivalent of a 40mm grenade as a warhead, 2.7kg weight, endurance of 10 minutes and a range of around 10km all puts it well in that lower end range. Couldn't find any pricing data, but I imagine more COTS approaches could come out pretty cheap. I'm actually surprised we've got man-portable loitering munitions like the switchblade in use bef…

Perhaps it's 10km range, more precise and visual targeting on moving vehicles vs close range and/or fixed position targeting. There is a switchblade 600 with even more range and more payload which can be used anti-armor.

Also, mortars and other artillery are subject to a counter-battery fire.

Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#106
post #70
post #2

> Several news sources have reported that a single TB2 drone can be purchased for a million dollars, but Bayraktar, while not giving a precise figure, told me that it costs more. In any event, single-unit figures are misleading; TB2s are sold as a “platform,” along with portable command stations and communications equipment. In 2019, Ukraine bought a fleet of at least six TB2s for a reported sixty-nine million dollar…

Wouldn't a COTS drone be relatively easy to jam or have early warning by detecting its control/video links? I get why Russia is having trouble adapting (logistics, sanctions, brain drain, paper tiger military) but outside of the Russia-Ukraine war, how effective would a COTS drone really be in a different state-vs-state direct conflict?

>Wouldn't a COTS drone be relatively easy to jam

Have you heared Link 1?

Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fact it seems to me that overall drones as artillery spotters have been much more impactful than direct fire drones in this war.

Yes, except for the strategic things like hitting AA, ships etc..

Artillery is the king of battle. I've seen numerous SAM/AA gear destroyed in Ukraine by artillery using drones for spotting.

Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine absolutely has an airforce. According to a recent CNN article, "In early March, about two weeks into the war, the defense official said Ukraine has 56 fighter aircraft, which composed about 80% of its fixed-wing fighters" https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/20/politics/ukraine-aircraft-spa...

They are not flying a lot of missions. It was down to a few sorties a day. Neither Air Force is spending a lot of time in hotly contested territory. I suggest UKR AF is really just patrolling within the territory they control as a deterrent to Russian AF. But neither spending a lot of time directly in each other's turf. A bit sad UKR doesn't have better AA because Russia is flying a lot more sorties on their lines th…

The RuAF is flying between 200-300 sorties a day, just not all over Ukraine where they'd get waxed by S300s. They're mostly flying in the Donbas, pretty much at the limits of the best SAMs Ukraine fields.

Re: The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine absolutely has an airforce. According to a recent CNN article, "In early March, about two weeks into the war, the defense official said Ukraine has 56 fighter aircraft, which composed about 80% of its fixed-wing fighters" https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/20/politics/ukraine-aircraft-spa...

The UkAF literally bombed Snake Island the other day. They definitely have an air force.

Yes, I guess I wasn’t explicit enough and now we’re having a silly discussion about a few dozen Ukrainian planes.

The entire point was… anyway…

I’ll be more explicit next time so we don’t run into the weeds and waste everyone’s time and get right to the issue

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