Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I honestly think we're very biased towards assuming our senior corporate leaders are foolish and misguided. I honestly think we're very biased towards assuming our senior corporate leaders are gods and not fallible mortals. All humans make mistakes. Very bad mistakes. Even very smart people. Depending on circumstances and level of power, some people suffer the consequences of their mistakes, and others don't. One c…
Everyone makes mistakes. But when they committed to that mistake, they thought they were right at the time. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23771902/ Diagnostic errors by Doctors are probably the gold standard of being error free. My estimate is that CEO types are usually right at least 60% of the time with these big decisions as it were. What I'm curious about is why they thought they were right when they made the d…
I never met a person who commited to a mistake, and thought they were wrong at the time. Have you?
> My estimate is that CEO types are usually right at least 60% of the time with these big decisions as it were.
How do you arrive at this number? For a doctor there is a clear correct and wrong diagnosis. For a corporate CEO, who decided against doing a merger, how do you even know that decision was taken at all? How do you known if it was right or wrong? You can't simulate an alternative business.
Suppose you could simulate it accurately, and the revenue were up, profit margin is down, and stock price is up - is that good or bad? You can't even determine, non subjectively, which option is better