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Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

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Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#31

As a single founder who's about to close his seed round (and was rejected from YC), I'm deeply concerned that opinions toward single founders are devolving from aversion, to bias, to self-fulfilling prophecy. With every step, investors are forfeiting the ability (or inclination) to evaluate this issue on the merits. I personally have no trouble working with others, nor difficulty enrolling others in my vision. I am e…

I personally have no trouble working with others, nor difficulty enrolling others in my vision. I am extremely emotionally stable—I don't take things personally and have little trouble riding the ups and downs

I'll leave the HAL 9000 jokes to someone who can afford the karma hit...

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#32
On 'the rules':

Again, just a fast look at VC finances shows that VC just MUST hit 'home runs' such as Dropbox or better.

Then just a fast look at the history of home runs shows that get only a few each decade. And just a fast look at those home runs shows that a significant pattern is super-tough to see. And, any such pattern has only a few examples because the larger 'circumstances' change so much from one decade to another. E.g., it used to be that a trillion bytes was a REALLY large chunk of hard disk space, but now it's not so large just as main memory.

So, since have to be looking for such home runs under such circumstances, what good 'rules' can be formulated? Remember, we're looking for home runs and not trying to find a description of a VCs average arriving e-mail pitch. Or we're looking for some tiny number of golden needles in in a huge pile of hay so that statements about some average about the hay are just irrelevant.

Well, one could guess, 'the first rule of VC is that there are no rules', but, actually, that is too strong.

But not good is the rule against 'single founders'. Why? With the larger circumstances today, a single founder has some big advantages. I will let readers fill in some of the advantages based on current circumstances just as an exercise!

Next, for 'the rules', there still are some that can apply to some of the startup candidates, One collection of such candidates is based on startups where the core 'secret sauce' is especially powerful and can be evaluated just technically. For a biomedical analogy, consider a safe, effective, cheap single pill cure for any cancer: Then just evaluate the pill and f'get about the founder because if do have the pill and if he did invent it, then f'get everything else about him! He invented the pill, for god's sake! Or, we know you are plenty smart, but could you have invented that pill? So, if he's smarter than you, then you've just gotta think that he's plenty smart. I mean, given that he invented that pill, what are the chances he's a doofus? Or, to be quite specific, even worst case, just what issues of 'business acumen' couldn't be solved by hiring him a COO, CFO, SVP Operations, SVP HR? And there's no good reason to suspect such a worst case or even a bad case. Or, did I mention, the guy invented the pill?

For meaningful rules to apply to all IT startup candidates, that seems to be asking too much.

The simple answer that will fit on the back of the usual 3 x 5" card of VC rules that even a VC can understand is, in looking for the crucial home runs, the first rule is there are no rules.

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#33

A co-founder is also the minimum social proof. Find at least one person in the world who is willing to bet on you and your startup.

Yeah, right. You forget: That is easy in college, but actually much more difficult later in life when all your friends have jobs and family. In other words, works in some way as a nicely worded age discrimination. Not that it affects me, but getting older makes you more sensitive for these things ;)

[deleted]

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#34

A co-founder is also the minimum social proof. Find at least one person in the world who is willing to bet on you and your startup.

Yeah, right. You forget: That is easy in college, but actually much more difficult later in life when all your friends have jobs and family. In other words, works in some way as a nicely worded age discrimination. Not that it affects me, but getting older makes you more sensitive for these things ;)

You presumably know far more professional developers at a later stage of your career than someone fresh out of university, so you have a far bigger pool to find someone out of.

Most of the people who are just finishing university and getting into YC aren't people who would be struggling to find jobs, these are people who are choosing to work for a startup over going to work for Google or Goldman Sachs for a six-figure salary.

The fact that someone older is more likely to have a mortgage and family commitments and thus be unable to relocate for three months and give up their salary is far more likely to weed out older candidates than the co-founder requirement.

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#35
post #20
post #8

What if Arash had turned out to be a bad match? They didn't know each other, so it was a pretty big gamble. I suppose if Drew retained control he could prevent it destroying the company, but then he doesn't really have an equal co-founder to keep him in check. Seems like a really tough problem. Kind of amazing it worked out so well.

Oddly enough Drew and I talked about this question tonight on a panel at the Computer History Museum. It was a big risk to recruit someone as a cofounder that he didn't know before (and I've seen a lot of cases where it didn't work out) but in this case the risk was mitigated by how much they had in common. One thing they had in common was Kyle Vogt of Justin.tv, who introduced them. So in retrospect the YC alumni ne…

Even if the roulette ball drops into the slot 00, the play was still a "big risk", and so was, under the circumstances, insisting on a cofounder. That is, given how much Drew had already done, a cofounder had to be mostly just downside risk. The 'mitigation' had to be minimal.

Or, Drew's left hand doesn't fight with his right hand, but cofounders can easily fight.

If a cofounder is really needed, then so be it. But a cofounder is always risky, and a single founder who has already done well starting the business has a big advantage just because his left hand won't fight with his right hand.

Now a single founder can do much more than in past years, even just five years ago.

And here's a big point: always in a startup very much want the CEO to 'understand his business'. In an IT software startup, that includes understanding the software. But software has now changed: E.g., with .NET, nearly everything needed in commercial computing, and a larger fraction of Web site construction, is already in the .NET classes. So, the work is just writing a little 'glue' code between the uses of the classes. So, the coding goes VERY quickly. But what doesn't go quickly is understanding the classes because need about 10 books each of 500-1000 pages and, even for just a Web site, about 3000 Web pages of documentation from MSDN. And, this understanding of .NET is just 'overhead' that have to pay just once per programming task solved with a .NET class actually understand well. So, to 'know his business', a CEO needs to know the relevant parts of, say, .NET. A cofounder can't help here. And once the CEO does have that .NET knowledge, there can be some serious question if a cofounder can add much. Just what the Linux world has in place of .NET I don't know, but it can't be both small and effective.

There is other evidence: Look up and down Main Street at the successful businesses that have been started there. Typically there's only one person who is the real 'founder'. Look at research: Bright ideas come first to just one person at a time. Period. Microsoft: A Bill Gates show. Apple: A Steve Jobs show. Berkshire: A Warren Buffett show. Renaissance: A James Simons show. Continue with the one man shows of Kolmogorov, von Neumann, Knuth, etc. and in music Heifetz, Rostropovich, Tchaikovsky, Beethoven, Mozart, Bach, etc.

It's tough enough to find a Michelangelo to paint the ceiling. Getting him a 'copainter' who would actually help would be impossible. As you add people to a team, the team regresses to the mean where you don't want to be. And, did I mention fights? Sorry 'bout that.

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#36
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oddly enough Drew and I talked about this question tonight on a panel at the Computer History Museum. It was a big risk to recruit someone as a cofounder that he didn't know before (and I've seen a lot of cases where it didn't work out) but in this case the risk was mitigated by how much they had in common. One thing they had in common was Kyle Vogt of Justin.tv, who introduced them. So in retrospect the YC alumni ne…

Even if the roulette ball drops into the slot 00, the play was still a "big risk", and so was, under the circumstances, insisting on a cofounder. That is, given how much Drew had already done, a cofounder had to be mostly just downside risk. The 'mitigation' had to be minimal. Or, Drew's left hand doesn't fight with his right hand, but cofounders can easily fight. If a cofounder is really needed, then so be it. But a…

Bill Gates had Paul Allen, Steve Jobs had Steve Wozniak and Warren Buffett had Charlie Munger. You can argue that one-half of these duos produced more than the other but would they have been able to without the support of the other half?

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#37
post #14

The people who are most upset about the single founder rule are the people who were rejected by YC because they couldn't find a co-founder.

Or perhaps people who thought they had a good idea or project and then took on a second founder in the hopes of getting into YC but then found that the person didn't work out.

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#38
post #2

From Forbes to Hacker News back to Forbes back to Hacker News. Definition of an echo chamber. In case a Forbes reporter wants to quote me, this comment is not for attribution.

Maybe if pg responds here, someone will write a story about it too.

I guess the Forbes bloggers are in need of material..? Although that said I can't say the articles were particularly bad. Maybe it is a stretch to continue to focus on the same article after it's been published as a feature. Certainly if nothing new and significant is being added it's a bit of a waste.

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if the roulette ball drops into the slot 00, the play was still a "big risk", and so was, under the circumstances, insisting on a cofounder. That is, given how much Drew had already done, a cofounder had to be mostly just downside risk. The 'mitigation' had to be minimal. Or, Drew's left hand doesn't fight with his right hand, but cofounders can easily fight. If a cofounder is really needed, then so be it. But a…

Bill Gates had Paul Allen, Steve Jobs had Steve Wozniak and Warren Buffett had Charlie Munger. You can argue that one-half of these duos produced more than the other but would they have been able to without the support of the other half?

Allen and Woz both left early on. Allen was in a plane wreck and/or got cancer or some such? Woz was gone before Jobs was at Next, Pixar, or back at Apple. I'm sure Jobs had a mother, also, but as I wrote, and is clearly the case, Apple, that is, the currently successful company, was a one man show from Jobs. While Munger is a bright guy, my reading is as I wrote it: Berkshire is a Buffett show.

Re: Paul Graham, Dropbox and The Single Founder Exception

#40
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, right. You forget: That is easy in college, but actually much more difficult later in life when all your friends have jobs and family. In other words, works in some way as a nicely worded age discrimination. Not that it affects me, but getting older makes you more sensitive for these things ;)

You presumably know far more professional developers at a later stage of your career than someone fresh out of university, so you have a far bigger pool to find someone out of. Most of the people who are just finishing university and getting into YC aren't people who would be struggling to find jobs, these are people who are choosing to work for a startup over going to work for Google or Goldman Sachs for a six-figur…

The 25-year old knows that if his startup fails he can easily find a first (or new) job at Google etc two years later. That does not apply to 45+ year olds. The risk is much higher.
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