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Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

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Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#701

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can’t said tenant just buy a house then?

Because homes are overpriced, because they're treated as capital instead of a durable good & because all financial / building policy advantages existing homeowners

Ok, so if you can’t or don’t want to buy you rent. No one is entitled anything. Or you can move to a less desirable area that’s cheaper.

Overpriced or not, people still buy.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#702

The sooner we collectively decide that housing shouldn't be a market, the better. We all need it, and we should figure out mechanisms to make it available to all. Practically that means paying to build and maintain housing stocks, changing tax incentives so developers are incentivized to build more housing and less luxury housing, charging a premium for unused land in desirable areas (parking lots don't house people)…

The inevitable outcome of housing inflation and elimination of the middle class is slums: illegal housing. People will have to live somewhere. And when that becomes unaffordable they'll just improvise. This is not a technical problem but a policy problem. The solution is changing the policy. The current policy is to drive up housing prices by creating completely artificial scarcity. All the land is owned and earmarke…

I think a real issue is the cost of infrastructure and network effects.

Essentially, a big corporation could buy cheap rural land close to a big city, develop a small city there and reap the "overpricing" benefits.

But it's very expensive to build the basic infra. And even more expensive to convince enough people to move there and create minimum network effects for it to become a "real" community and livable space.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#703
post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No true scotsman, ay? Yes, there are many artificial constructs that prevent true free market, but I still do not believe that capital accumulation by capital overs is not an property of this idealistic system. Do You have any real example of invisible hand working (by which I mean not ending with the top dogs holding all the bones) ?

You acknowledge the imperfection of the private sector, including wasteful spending. Now imagine that except with the power to waste even more money by sending an IRS agent to take your money at gunpoint and without being constrained by (at least if 'turtledove' word to be take) a ' profit motive'.

Profit motive is so primitive and so one dimensional constrained and yet it somehow mesmerized so many thinkers that we build build "golden idols" in praise of it (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charging_Bull).

I do not believe that this is it - there have to be other better constrains combinations. It just that there is so much vested interest in current system that no one will dare to contest it enough to really try something different.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#704

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing is fungible in a remote work world. So construction in cheaper locales can help reduce costs in HCOL areas. E.g. people migrate from CA to FL, reduces number of households in CA. Not for local jobs of course But anyway, beyond fungibility, demographic trend is towards population decline. Spread between population growth and rate of new home construction is at an all time high. And even CA recently passed a la…

As long as going to the same bar as your boss during happy hour leads to a promotion, career progression + economic opportunity will be tied to geography. Barely any companies operate like Gitlab does. Demographic decline is a much bigger problem to solve, not something that should stop us from taking action.

My director who according to levels.fyi makes 1 million dollars a year is fully remote. If that's the remote ceiling, than I am A ok with it.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#705
post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You acknowledge the imperfection of the private sector, including wasteful spending. Now imagine that except with the power to waste even more money by sending an IRS agent to take your money at gunpoint and without being constrained by (at least if 'turtledove' word to be take) a ' profit motive'.

Profit motive is so primitive and so one dimensional constrained and yet it somehow mesmerized so many thinkers that we build build "golden idols" in praise of it ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charging_Bull ). I do not believe that this is it - there have to be other better constrains combinations. It just that there is so much vested interest in current system that no one will dare to contest it enough to really t…

>Profit motive is so primitive

Is this a rebuttal to turtledove for introducing the notion of 'profit motive?' His introduction is the source of our discussion on 'profit motive.'

>(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charging_Bull).

The beautiful thing about art is you can interpret it however you want. You interpret it as a "golden idol" of the profit motive. I could interpret it as an angry bull sick of the ways of capitalism; a bull that wants to inspire free health care for all.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#706
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but if there are buyers, competition, and houses are continuing to move quickly, They’re not though. Thats the whole problem. Asset bubbles can inflate the paper value and there might still be some trading activity. But if nobody can actually buy the asset, it’s pretty much useless.

That is what they are saying though - people are actually buying the assets? All anecdotes I have seen recently say that houses go off market very quickly.

They may be going off the the market very quickly now. That’s exactly how asset inflation works. People living in their homes that are suddenly worth millions of dollars aren't going to sell their homes now necessarily. When they do get around to selling it the market might not be the same.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#707
post #704

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as going to the same bar as your boss during happy hour leads to a promotion, career progression + economic opportunity will be tied to geography. Barely any companies operate like Gitlab does. Demographic decline is a much bigger problem to solve, not something that should stop us from taking action.

My director who according to levels.fyi makes 1 million dollars a year is fully remote. If that's the remote ceiling, than I am A ok with it.

If that was a replicable strategy, that would be amazing.

The averages say otherwise and I would bet continue to do so if we check-in, in a decade.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#708

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, 15, 20, and 30 year fixed are boring standard mortgages, with various adjustable rate mortgages available from 1-10 years (and even some interest only products, where you’re essentially just renting the property from the bank and not building any equity).

Agreed except for your mischaracterization at the end. An I/O mortgage is a leveraged asset speculation you live in, without the “forced low interest savings” of traditional mortgages.

Historically, real estate has always appreciated at a health rate except during a handful of tail events. It’s less speculation and more allocating capital elsewhere versus dead capital in your home (and if the interest rate spread between the note and your other investment growth opportunities is significantly robust to make the effort worth while).

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#709
post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Profit motive is so primitive and so one dimensional constrained and yet it somehow mesmerized so many thinkers that we build build "golden idols" in praise of it ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charging_Bull ). I do not believe that this is it - there have to be other better constrains combinations. It just that there is so much vested interest in current system that no one will dare to contest it enough to really t…

>Profit motive is so primitive Is this a rebuttal to turtledove for introducing the notion of 'profit motive?' His introduction is the source of our discussion on 'profit motive.' >( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charging_Bull ). The beautiful thing about art is you can interpret it however you want. You interpret it as a "golden idol" of the profit motive. I could interpret it as an angry bull sick of the ways of ca…

I marely tried to defend our ability (as humans) to create more complex systems that works. I do not believe that free makrets are the end game. The obvious inefficiency of public sector does not make capitalism the ultimate answer.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#710
post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> those vacant homes are not necessarily in places people live or want to live Good point, although i would like data to back that claim. For example in France, 200k empty dwellings are in Paris alone: this does not account for vacant industrial/office space which could also be converted to housing. In all cases, *proposing* (without coercion) homeless people a house somewhere does not sound inhumane at all. > there…

>For example in France, 200k empty dwellings are in Paris alone Source? A quick search only turns a figure half of that: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1290578/number-homes-par... Also, just because it's "vacant" doesn't mean it can actually be used to house homeless people. It could be undergoing renovations, or on the rental market.

10% doesn't seem entirely reasonable. Maybe bit high, but still if the vacancy is because renovation, waiting for new tenants either renters or owners. You want some slack in any market. And ofc, there is some number of second or third properties in cities like Paris. Maybe part of solution would be to ban these and AirBnB entirely. Only allow hotels and like to exist.
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