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Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

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Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve heard this but I’ve not experienced it. If corporations are buying houses and using it as rental income, they’re probably losing money. Ignoring vacation rentals, detached homes are among the hardest to rent.

Newsflash, they aren't losing money

Some data would be nice. I've followed real estate investments for a while, and renting houses is fairly poor if you paid all cash for the house. The math is easy to do.

Most RE investors I know who do this make good money only if they buy a significantly undervalued house - often one that is unsellable. They buy it, put in $50K to repair it, and then rent it out.

Those who buy regular houses at 20% down and rent it out have a target of $200/mo net profit. Clearly, they're not buying $600K houses at $120K down to get a measly $200/mo out of it.

RE investing - especially the rental market - is very nice in that it's pretty simple math and very transparent. Anyone can plug in the numbers and see what they'll get. Generally, in places where houses go for $800K, the rent will likely not even cover the loan payments. So then you play the game of taking a long term sustained loss in the hope of appreciation. But as someone else pointed out, this makes sense only if you're paying about 20% down and not with paying full cash.

Buying houses with all cash is almost always a very poor investment.

Random example in my area: Houses in a certain neighborhood are selling for $900K. They rent for $3.5K/mo. Assuming no costs, it would take 21 years to get the money back. Even with rent appreciation, it would take well over 10 years. Over that period, even including appreciation of the house, you're almost guaranteed to get better returns with the S&P500.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#672
post #564
post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US market is far from the invisible hand. There is a massive hand with a club attached called the Federal Reserve, which has artificially held down interest rates resulting in a major manipulation of the housing market. Additionally, there are numerous governmental restrictions on minimum square footage, sometimes onerous building codes, impact fees, and zoning restrictions to name a few.

No true scotsman, ay? Yes, there are many artificial constructs that prevent true free market, but I still do not believe that capital accumulation by capital overs is not an property of this idealistic system. Do You have any real example of invisible hand working (by which I mean not ending with the top dogs holding all the bones) ?

You acknowledge the imperfection of the private sector, including wasteful spending. Now imagine that except with the power to waste even more money by sending an IRS agent to take your money at gunpoint and without being constrained by (at least if 'turtledove' word to be take) a ' profit motive'.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#673

Isn't this one of those "If everyone is crazy, you're crazy" situations? If every house is overvalued by some metric, then maybe the metric is wrong. People's perceptions of value are a large part of the actual value(meaning what someone would really pay) for things like housing that should depreciate over time.

> If every house is overvalued by some metric, then maybe the metric is wrong.

We're seeing people moving, and supply limits are influencing both rental prices and purchase prices. It's a weird housing market.

The question of the rationality of the valuation is:

1. Do you expect these migration patterns to continue? 2. If so, when do you expect new construction to pick up the slack for demand? 3. How bad of a recession is the Fed going to cause to break inflation?

> housing that should depreciate over time.

It does, amusingly. Housing stock ages and units you build now will generally be worth less in 10-20 years. Land is the thing that can appreciate in value.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#674
post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like, 85% in London though.

About 34% of London is leasehold: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/leasehold-dwellings...

Ok, maybe I should have specified "under £650k within zones 1, 2 and 3".

I'm sure Roman Abramovich's mansion is freehold as are all those semidetached houses on the outskirts with a 55 minute commute to the centre.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#675
post #620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No doubt you'll need more "fixes" before you're done. It's like rent control in SF or public housing in Singapore. Design a new system and you'll create loopholes to be exploited. Fix those and new loopholes are created. And on and on. Easier to just remove government restrictions to supply and build until prices come down.

>public housing in Singapore Which is a huge success.

For who? How's that working out for the 1/3 of Singapore who is completely ineligible, yet pays taxes into the public coffers?

Singapore is unique in that they have a massive well (proportionally much bigger than US) of workers paying taxes who are ineligible for much of the fruits of those taxes. Only the 2/3 with Citizenship or PR can meaningfully get public housing.

I'm sure about any nation could have more affordable housing if they have endless wells of guest workers who can shoulder the cost without yielding that benefit for themselves.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#676
post #381
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> USA was inoculated for a very long time, because horizontal expansion over cheap land allowed for expansion of supply. That era is over. True. > Car and highway technology is no longer adequate to expand cheaply and still remain within viable commuting distance. False. The US has mind-boggling amounts of land available. What's changed is the ability and desire to build on it. Used to be, the government would pay yo…

> The US has mind-boggling amounts of land available. What's changed is the ability and desire to build on it. Times have changed and most people don't want to live in marginal lands that are available in mind boggling quantities. In addition, the reason that a lot of cities were built a few generations ago in the hinterlands was because manpower was needed for resource extraction industries, which have since either…

> most people don't want to live in marginal lands that are available in mind boggling quantities

That's not "times have changed" -- people have never wanted to live on marginal lands, that's why the government paid people to move there.

> a lot of cities were built a few generations ago in the hinterlands

Few cities are built in the hinterlands for the purposes of resource extraction; cities grow where trade is, but yes there are definitely towns that have vanished because we don't as many farmers and miners.

The SF Bay Area is dominated by single family homes on large lots. Yes, SF proper has a high density, but the surrounding areas really don't, and not for lack of demand: developers who would build more housing are literally stymied at every turn, and this is not an accident, it is an intentional plan to reduce the availability of housing and keep it expensive, to avoid "traffic", "crowding", and "changing the character of the neighborhood".

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#677

The sooner we collectively decide that housing shouldn't be a market, the better. We all need it, and we should figure out mechanisms to make it available to all. Practically that means paying to build and maintain housing stocks, changing tax incentives so developers are incentivized to build more housing and less luxury housing, charging a premium for unused land in desirable areas (parking lots don't house people)…

The inevitable outcome of housing inflation and elimination of the middle class is slums: illegal housing. People will have to live somewhere. And when that becomes unaffordable they'll just improvise. This is not a technical problem but a policy problem. The solution is changing the policy. The current policy is to drive up housing prices by creating completely artificial scarcity. All the land is owned and earmarke…

In the SF Bay Area there is a lot of vacant land set aside as parks and open space. Should we develop that land for housing?

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#678
post #655

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was, at least the common narrative goes, the fundamental basis for most if not all states. Mutual defense. And it's hardly any different today. There have been many cases of non-state societies who did organize their own protections. But to try and connect the dots with such factions (many of which are still functioning today) and the modern man is an error. We're talking societies with scribal and priestly clas…

> 99% of daily life proceeds under conditions of total anarchy, authority and security are entirely illusory and we pay incredible costs to maintain those illusions Those costs are totally worth it. I'd rather live in a nation with liberal democracy and property laws, than whatever more "pure" or original model you seem to have in mind.

You say that but history has lots of examples of people taken in by such egalitarian societies and doing an about-face, and when the European societies took in people, they more often sought to return.

In any case, what I'm talking about is democratic and does not forego property rights, in fact it could give you stronger property rights. But you didn't read the grandparent.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#679
post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The really old homes I’ve seen in Europe are made out of wood oddly enough. Of course, when the house was built in the 1400s, it is probably a ship of Theseus. Well, most homes that are around for a whole have to be maintained, even (especially) if they are made out of concrete or brick.

I think it depends where in Europe? In Germany and Austria they're mostly made of masonry. Here for example is a 1000+ years old church in Vienna: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Rupert%27s_Church,_Vienna

That church undergoes a lot of maintnence, masonry requires constant repair, so it gets constant repair.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#680
post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I replied to that comment as well. Affordability of housing the EU (or Japan, or China, or India, etc) isn't really that relevant to the situation in the US.

What does your policing add to the conversation? Unrelated syntax and semantics is not related to US housing

Based on your green account name, it appeared you were new to HN. I commented because the site guidelines include:

> “ Eschew flamebait. Avoid unrelated controversies and generic tangents.”

Your comment, “Don’t forget to mention they still have full health coverage in the EU.” was doing exactly what the guidelines ask us not to.

My hope was that bringing attention to this would help deflate the impending generic argument about health care and help you improve future conversations on the site.

It was just an attempt to be helpful.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

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