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Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

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Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#81

Post by otterley »

avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

How are your returns compared to those of a passive S&P 500 investor over the past decade?

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#82

Post by virtue3 »

waylandsmithers wrote: post #68

Not an economist but majored in economics for undergrad, including macro, international, and public economics. I think it's great for people to learn about macro but I don't think you're going to get what you are looking for out of this with regards to investing- economists are generally good at studying and trying to explain why things happened in the past. Like any other group of people, they're not very good at pr…

never underestimate the "hold my beer" effect.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#83

Post by SantalBlush »

mikewarot wrote: post #41

Economics is an arena full of entrenched interests who exploit information asymmetry and regulatory capture to compete, at multiple scale factors. It is my strongly held opinion that rational analysis of "Economics" is not possible. You've got the global scale, where nations compete, best described by Beau of the Fifth Column as a game of poker where everyone cheats to gain power. You've got the corporate scale, wher…

Most of what you've described here is about politics and finance, not economics. Econ has pretty much nothing to do with sitting on a board or high-frequency trading.

HN is full of users who don't know what econ is but want to explain how wrong it is to one another. It's like a parody of itself.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#84

Post by stevenhuang »

SantalBlush wrote: post #83
mikewarot wrote: post #41

Economics is an arena full of entrenched interests who exploit information asymmetry and regulatory capture to compete, at multiple scale factors. It is my strongly held opinion that rational analysis of "Economics" is not possible. You've got the global scale, where nations compete, best described by Beau of the Fifth Column as a game of poker where everyone cheats to gain power. You've got the corporate scale, wher…

Most of what you've described here is about politics and finance, not economics. Econ has pretty much nothing to do with sitting on a board or high-frequency trading. HN is full of users who don't know what econ is but want to explain how wrong it is to one another. It's like a parody of itself.

But taking "economics" in isolation like this ignores much of what actually happens in reality (the politics part).

It's a large part of why economics as a field is made fun of when its models are too simplistic to accurately describe reality.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#85

Post by netizen-936824 »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #65
roenxi wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To attach some further cynicism to this comment: The going rate to buy a "respectable" politician appears to be donations in the $10k to $1 million range. Buying an economist is going to be much cheaper than that. Anyone with a bit of money behind them can pay for any sort of economics they like. Note that many famous economists are vulnerable to financial or political influence. It is not a safe field for uncovering…

I don't think your logic works. It ought to be very cheap to buy a climate scientist too, but despite that the oil industry has failed to produce a substantial number of climate scientists who don't say anthropogenic climate change is real. Economists have broad agreement on issues like rent control (they don't like it) and carbon pricing (they do like it), and that still counts for something.

Probably because all of the climate scientists with half of a brain can tell that selling out to oil corporations means selling out the future of humanity. It isn't so obvious what consequences bad economics has

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#86

Post by aj7 »

This is one of the hardest and least productive approaches to investing. Basic skills in general security analysis, knowledge in depth of a number industry sectors, and seat-of-the-pants experience that comes only with real money bets in the market trump macroeconomic analysis.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#87

Post by shiredude95 »

avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

in other words dca is the most effective strategy for your average investor?

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#88

Post by aj7 »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #65
roenxi wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To attach some further cynicism to this comment: The going rate to buy a "respectable" politician appears to be donations in the $10k to $1 million range. Buying an economist is going to be much cheaper than that. Anyone with a bit of money behind them can pay for any sort of economics they like. Note that many famous economists are vulnerable to financial or political influence. It is not a safe field for uncovering…

I don't think your logic works. It ought to be very cheap to buy a climate scientist too, but despite that the oil industry has failed to produce a substantial number of climate scientists who don't say anthropogenic climate change is real. Economists have broad agreement on issues like rent control (they don't like it) and carbon pricing (they do like it), and that still counts for something.

They’ve had a TON. But they have zero credibility.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#89

Post by buzzy_hacker »

shiredude95 wrote: post #87
avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

in other words dca is the most effective strategy for your average investor?

DCA only speaks to the cadence of investment and is often contrasted to (and underperforms) lump sum. The strategy as a whole could be summed up as investing in low cost diversified index funds.
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