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Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

betagainst.fun

31–40 of 147 posts

Re: Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

#31
post #27

Nitpick: you can’t lose over 100% of your investment using a put option. You can only lose the premium.

You can lose up to 100% of premium (which makes up 100% of your investment in that option) if you BOUGHT the put option. You can lose up to Strike Price minus the premium received if you SOLD the put option.

I know next nothing about option trading, but doesn't betting against a stock have infinite loses?

Re: Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

#32
post #27

Nitpick: you can’t lose over 100% of your investment using a put option. You can only lose the premium.

You can lose up to 100% of premium (which makes up 100% of your investment in that option) if you BOUGHT the put option. You can lose up to Strike Price minus the premium received if you SOLD the put option.

I think the point is - using options you can limit your risk to a specific amount of money. Buy a put to go short, buy a call to go long.

Re: Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

#33
Random question: Would it be illegal to use insider information to trade on the result of a correlated stock that you suspect will be affected by the actual company you have information about? (I mean I get that it probably is since you're using insider information but wouldn't it be really hard to prove.) Just curious, I'm not intending on doing it myself.

Re: Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

#34
post #19

I can see the risk in short positions - you theoretically could lose an infinite amount (if you borrow X shares of something, sell them, but then can't find any to buy when it comes to returning them), and it's certainly possible to lose more than you put in (sell 100 short at $10 netting you $1000, price doubles overnight on new news, you have to buy $2000, losing a total of $1000 in the process. If price trippled o…

The main issue with options is the time component. Now you have to bet on the direction and be pretty precise with the when.

Also, prices for these options (Tesla is a good example) aren't cheap. For example a bet that Tesla will be below $900 by Jan 19th 2024 will cost you about $250 / share at the moment. That means Tesla needs to actually be below $650 on Jan 19th 2024 before you make 1 dollar.

As long as you understand whats going on and what you are actually betting on, you are fine. But options have lots of 'gotchas'.

Re: Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

#36
post #25

"We calculate the correlations between 2 securities on the daily closing values of the last 20 years." It's better to correlate daily returns than daily prices, since the latter are nonstationary, and I suggest using 1 year of daily returns rather than 20 since correlations do change over time. When I worked as a financial quant no one looked at 20 year correlations to measure near-term risk.

For a retail trader, the fees are higher, affording fewer trades in a given period. As such the holding period might be on the order of 1 year for some people, so just 1 year of daily returns might invite too much trading if you're rebalancing.

Retail traders should be realizing gains within 2-3 month intervals. Retail investors will usually hold for years and do average pricing until the next market crash

Re: Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

#37
post #3

Very cool, although index funds like S&P 500 and DJI don't seem to work. https://betagainst.fun/asset/_gspc_spy/ https://betagainst.fun/asset/_dji_dia/

That doesn't make any sense anyway. You're asking what are the highest and lowest correlations of the market against the market itself. You cannot compare the same or roughly the same basket of assets against itself.

That still makes sense. Something can be more or less correlated with the broader market. It's very useful, actually: you can use securities that tend to not be correlated with the broader market to build a portfolio with less average variance.

Re: Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

#39
post #33

Random question: Would it be illegal to use insider information to trade on the result of a correlated stock that you suspect will be affected by the actual company you have information about? (I mean I get that it probably is since you're using insider information but wouldn't it be really hard to prove.) Just curious, I'm not intending on doing it myself.

Yes it is illegal, but happens nonetheless. Matt Levine wrote about this quite often, you can find it by searching „Money Stuff Shadow Trading“ for example

Re: Show HN: Find the 10 highest and 10 lowest correlations to any stock

#40
post #31
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can lose up to 100% of premium (which makes up 100% of your investment in that option) if you BOUGHT the put option. You can lose up to Strike Price minus the premium received if you SOLD the put option.

I know next nothing about option trading, but doesn't betting against a stock have infinite loses?

Not with options. If you want to bet against a company you with options you can do it by either: 1. Buy a put. The put gives you the right to sell the stock at a certain price. If it goes below that price you make a profit, if it doesn’t your put is worthless. The maximum you can lose is what you paid for the put. 2. Sell a Call. This gives someone the right to buy the stock at a certain price (and you promise to sell at that price). If the stock is below that price your profit is what you sold the call. Your maximum loss is infinite since a stock price has no (theoretical) limit.
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