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Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

bloombergquint.com

451–460 of 575 posts

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Foraging from the forest isn't what I meant at all. The way we farm the majority of the crop land kills every last spec of fungi and bacteria in the soil that would help improve the soil and reduce the need for inputs. The minerals are there already. We need to allow the biology to do its thing and make them available to plants.

sorry i didnt mean to misrepresent your point. i wanted to emphasize (and i think we agree here) that the land is single use. allowing biology to "do its thing" usually means we can't also use it to grow crops. maybe some sustainable hybrid strategies exist, but i doubt the yields are anywhere near the mass food production we have today.

The land use isn't singular on a regeneratively managed farm. Agroforestry and intense rotational grazing are two examples of ecosystems planned for maximum profitable output from land. An agroforestry farm may provide mushrooms, berries, nuts, wood, meat, dairy, eggs, grains, and fruit from the same plot of land that may provide 201,000 bushels of wheat (~5000 acres). The difference is management. Regenerative practices aim to work with nature.

I understand being skeptical of a new way(really the old way) to farm. We have all grown up in a time dominated by artificial inputs to farms. We don't know anything else. I have been following the regenerative space for years now and have adopted many of the practices on my tiny piece of land. This is the future of farming. Outputs are higher quality and more plentiful with more variety. Inputs are minimal which increases the profit margin.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#452
post #372

The fungi guys will tell you that running out of mineral fertilizer is bullshit on roughly 95% of the arable land because all of the minerals your food needs are right there in the sand and clay. I once heard it described that conventional agriculture is essentially a hydroponics system using partially sterilized soil as the substrate. Nearly every symbiotic relationship fungi make is based on buying sugars from plan…

Most of the nitrogen in currently living humans was captured from the atmosphere via the Haber Bosch process. That is the primary contribution of synthetic fertilizer, and there aren't scalable natural processes to match it. Countries used to go to war over nitrogen stores (such as islands covered in bat guano).

Based on playing Civ I just assumed they were mostly valuable for their use in making gunpowder.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is possibly, but yields go way down, in some cases by 50% or more. the amount of land that will need to be utilized for food growth will have to drastically increased. not saying this is a bad thing. soil regeneration and more sustainable farming practices are a good thing Imo. it's just that we can't switch to that instantly. yield goes down, takes time to switch, cost likely will increase to make the same $/ac…

An interesting trivia: Dividing the available arable land by global population leaves only a 100x100m plot per person - and that's before barns, silos, houses or warehouses. That's not a whole lot - as a city dweller, I'm confident I'd starve the first winter if not earlier Modern agriculture is really impressive - farmers manage to feed around 10-20 people from such a plot

Luckily ruminants do not need crop-suitable land to thrive.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Synthetic fertilizer does have negative impacts, but saying they have negative food impacts borders on oxymoron. Runoff to freshwater inducing toxicity is one major impact from over fertilization, which is not an implication of the product itself, but it's over use. I'm told. IANA farmer but I know many and worked with ag and water quality researchers for a few years in MN, USA.

Not just overuse, but use on land that is too close to bodies of water without riparian buffers.

And also wrong dispersal. All the fertilizer that gets on the water is wasted and does nothing but increase the farmer expenses.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does it make sense to give every family 0.75 acres of grass, 400 sqft of driveway and a 2 car garage A standard suburban house doesn't sit on 0.75 acres. 0.2 is typical. Though you're probably low on the driveway and garage :). I'd like to see a better argument for why we shouldn't live this way. There are relatively large metros (e.g. Portland) that are predominantly suburban single family homes, and so far it see…

I'm hopping on a plane in a minute, but I'll do my best to at least start an example :) The real question is "what do you mean by 'it works fine'?" To me, the effects of suburban living are such that we don't treat people as people unless they're shrouded in a big rolling box of metal. Of course it'll vary from person to person and family to family. I think urban environments offer children much more freedom than cor…

> The real question is "what do you mean by 'it works fine'?" To me, the effects of suburban living are such that we don't treat people as people unless they're shrouded in a big rolling box of metal.

This is just unhelpful, tired rhetoric. Everyone has the same rights whether they're in a car or not. Moreover, public transit literally depends on much larger "metal boxes".

It sounds like you live in a magical city.

In Chicago, it's much faster to get around by car than it is to take the train or bus. In general, if you're taking the bus or train anywhere, it's almost always a 45 minute trip one-way and it can easily be double that if you have a transfer.

I like that I can walk to a few grocery stores and restaurants, but if I want to go to a specialty shop or visit a restaurant in a different neighborhood or even just make a big trip in inclimate weather I can do so much more quickly/easily with a car than without. Of course, rideshare is a thing, but a round trip to another neighborhood can easily run anywhere from $60-120 and even then you have to wait for drivers and even then they might blow you off (maybe I'm just unlucky here, but it seems like 5-10% of drivers blow me off, especially if I ordered a ride just before a price surge).

> I never worry about having too much to drink to safely drive home

This isn't much of a problem for me--if I want more than a couple of drinks (rare), I just make arrangements in advance (DD or walking or rideshare or public transit). If I don't make arrangements, I don't drink. I don't know what could be more convenient than this (I see the logic in doing the inconvenient-but-safe thing all the time, but it means missing out on a lot of convenience unnecessarily).

> I don't have to deal with traffic, and when friends come to visit (or when I visit them) I can take the train and enjoy a book instead of navigating roads.

Traffic is tedious, but I mostly just avoid traveling during rush hour (not usually a big deal since I can leave later and still get there at the same time as I would if I took the train during rush hour). It wouldn't be a problem at all if I didn't live in a city. Anyway, I don't know what your city's public transit system is like, but in Chicago it's uncommon to get a seat on a train (if you get one, there will usually be someone who needs it more), and the etiquette is to hold your bag rather than wearing it on your back (so we can squeeze an extra 1/4 of a person into the train car). Since your other hand is holding a strap or railing, there's no free hand to hold the book and anyway it's too distracting to me with the pan handlers trying to get my attention or the guys who blast their portable speakers or are trying to start shit with other riders (or straight up smoking weed/cigarettes). Buses are a little nicer, but they are subject to traffic just like cars. Instead, I just drive and listen to a podcast or audiobook; navigation has been a solved problem for a decade thanks to pervasive GPS.

> I feel far healthier and happier with the amount of light physical activity that's been baked into my life just by going about my normal routine. Before we moved to the city, I lived a pretty typical office worker sedentary life: I'd get up, shower, drive (sitting) to work, work (sitting, sometimes standing), then drive home. Now I walk to work and feel invigorated as I come through the door 15 minutes after I left, without the annoyance of rush hour or traffic or bad drivers.

I liked walking to work when the weather was nice, but that's pretty rare in Chicago and anyway there are only so many different routes you can take after which it gets dull. I'm really glad I got a remote gig. I have a ton of time left over, and my wife and I will load up the dog and go to a park or even rent a lake house for a week outside of the city for a nature fix. If we didn't have cars, we would probably stay in our neighborhood rather than spend the extra $100/day on a car rental, but since we have a car anyway the difference is marginal. And the car is convenient for other things too--we can take our dog to the vet or to friends' houses without having to pay an exorbitant rideshare cost, for example. Parking is really only inconvenient downtown during the work week and a few other places (e.g., around the zoo during summer weekends, etc). Otherwise it's like $5-10 for a few hours.

> A twenty minute walk puts me at museums or bars or train stations or work or the store or like 5 friends' houses or the lake shore or a thousand other places. No parking, no navigating traffic, no having to move the car or worry about not wandering far from the car or figuring out how to navigate unfamiliar roads

Seems a little silly that you're willing to walk 20 minutes but not "wander far from the car". :)

> Honestly the most stressful part of any of my journeys is wondering if drivers are paying attention as I go through the crosswalk, or if they're going to cut the corner to try to make their left turn.

Yeah, this is definitely one of the more stressful aspects of walking around Chicago.

> As a citizen, my city's limited resources don't have to go to maintaining roads that the richer segments of the population get proportionally more benefit from.

In Chicago, the nicer neighborhoods not only have better roads but also much better public transit options. It turns out the same forces that operate on streets operate on public transit.

> There's a common saying that "we don't all have the same time" when it comes to discussing class differences

This favors cars, which waste less time than public transit in the general case.

> This is to say nothing of the actual health impact of cars: accidents, death, pollution, or just the amount of money we're 'required' to spend on them so we can participate in wider society.

Accidents are the best argument against cars, IMO. I think we can sharply curtail this with better city planning and more safety features (especially with advancements in self-driving technology). Regarding pollution and maintainability, EVs emit less per person than a diesel city bus (this will continue to improve over time as our energy grid becomes cleaner) and they're also inherently more maintainable (no transmission, engine, exhaust system, etc). Once the high end of the market is saturated, we'll start to see more, simpler models on the low-end, and these will eventually hit the used car market. Fuel will also be cheaper because electricity is cheaper than gasoline.

> Imagine the value our citizens would get out of not paying $20k (at the _very low end_) every five or eight years for their cars, not to mention the maintenance.

I'm not sure what that $20k figure is meant to represent. You can get a reliable car for $10k these days, drive it for 5-10 years and turn around and sell it for $2-4k. Of course, you'll have to insure it and pay for gas and maintenance, but that's probably quite a lot less than most couples spend on public transit, rideshare, and car rentals.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comment farther up the thread (at this point anyhow)[1] references Gabe Brown. He is using very little to no commercial fertilizer on his farm and has been for years. I am guessing his audience among cash strapped young desperate farmers has increased a lot in the last 3 months. 1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31237965

There are a couple of particularly noteworthy things about Gabe. His philosophy was a baptism by fire. He ran out of money via a combination of bad decisions and getting hit by a statistical cluster of bad years where the world seemed to be saying Fuck You in Particular (there were 4 years with catastrophic hail storms, and none of his neighbors got hit by more than 3 of them). Some of his crops are targets of opport…

The 55 gallon rain barrels are near useless for small plot irrigation. Larger containers can hold a meaningful amount of water to be useful during sporadic dry spells.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#457

Threads like these reminds me that HN is an overwhelmingly urban community with almost zero exposure to the agriculture sector

Not only that, but most of HN, even the professional programmers who've been here for a decade, have absolutely no clue about anything regarding the physical world. Chemical equilibriums, enthalpy of formation, basic irradiance calculations etc. That's perfectly fine, as long as you don't make really bold statements about things you don't understand. This thread reminds me of reddit. A ton of highly upvoted comments that are completely wrong. You don't need to live in the countryside to understand the basic economics surrounding agriculture, and no, "artificial" fertilizers aren't a scam nor a big corp trick. If you think you can replace them with fungi, good luck.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#458
post #452
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the nitrogen in currently living humans was captured from the atmosphere via the Haber Bosch process. That is the primary contribution of synthetic fertilizer, and there aren't scalable natural processes to match it. Countries used to go to war over nitrogen stores (such as islands covered in bat guano).

Based on playing Civ I just assumed they were mostly valuable for their use in making gunpowder.

You seem surprised that a game simplified the mechanics of the real world until they are unrecognizable.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#459

I feel like the economics will sort this out automatically, at least for the average first-world citizen. Most consume way more than they actually utilize for nutritional value. In America, food is entertainment more than anything else. Once the price of this "entertainment" becomes prohibitive, people will start looking at it with the proper perspective. Simply switching from daily takeout to weekly meal prep can sh…

Meat normally fixes the fluctuations on agriculture output.

When it's very plentiful, meat producers switch into more grains and grow more cattle. When it's scarce, meat producers slaughter their cattle earlier, and do as much as possible to substitute grains for grass.

AFAIK, the second largest stabilizer is on stockpiles. But some countries do almost none of it.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#460
post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Nitrogen fixing bacteria (i.e. R. leguminasarum, s. meliloti) love the sugar exchange legumes offer. Cover cropping and inter cropping have potential to rethink the 113-year old haber-bosch solution.

" Cover crops were in use on less than 2 percent of total cropland (for all crops) during 2010-11 (6.8 million acres), with adoption rates higher in some regions (e.g., the Southern Seaboard and the Mississippi Portal). Although the benefits of cover crops and no-till/strip-till are enhanced when these practices are used on the same fields, the low cover crop adoption rate suggests that these benefits are realized on…

Cover crops have come into style though since then. They are a lot more common. Not nearly as common as they should be, but they still a lot more than 10 years ago.
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