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Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

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201–210 of 575 posts

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#201

Threads like these reminds me that HN is an overwhelmingly urban community with almost zero exposure to the agriculture sector

My favorite are the threads about how we need to get rid of cars and switch everyone to public transit and cycling. :)

Two counter points.

- Where I live (The Netherlands) you don’t have to live in a city to have good PT. There are places that you cannot reach by train or bus but they are few.

- While sometimes a car is necessary, the cars many people prefer (insanely oversized “trucks”) are hardly ever necessary.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#202

Quoted post unavailable.

It’s all about the money (as usual) - likely the economies of scale specifically. They technically can produce it almost everywhere, but it was cheaper to import it, and likely would still be even if local plants were started up.

That sounds like a problem due to the current lack of protectionism for strategic assets? I.e. it is not viable to do domestic base industry in a lot of areas.

COVID showed us that governments are quick to stop exports if they feel there is a need to.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#203
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Animal protein is not a problem. There is plenty of land in the US only suitable for grazing Only in the sense that you can theoretically produce meat that way, but in reality most meat is produced on CAFOs that use grain.

they do this because its most efficient/profitable, not because of a technical limitation. Those economic incentivizes could be changed rapidly given the proper political capital.

It‘s done because grasslands cannot support meat consumption of the world.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My favorite are the threads about how we need to get rid of cars and switch everyone to public transit and cycling. :)

A sure-fire indicator that someone exists in a purely urban mental-model of reality

The alernative view is also freqently purely US-centric suburban/rural one. In many densely populated countries, rural areas have quite good public transport.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#205
post #26

If all the land and resource that goes into feeding cows is used for crops, a lot more people can be supported. It has never been a lack of global food shortage, it is always regional anyways.

However, there are many areas of the world where you can't grow human-edible food on the land currently being used to grow grass for feeding livestock. Of course this is not true everywhere, but a lot of area, e.g. in the UK, could only be used for grazing cows or sheep, if not left for nature.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My favorite are the threads about how we need to get rid of cars and switch everyone to public transit and cycling. :)

Two counter points. - Where I live (The Netherlands) you don’t have to live in a city to have good PT. There are places that you cannot reach by train or bus but they are few. - While sometimes a car is necessary, the cars many people prefer (insanely oversized “trucks”) are hardly ever necessary.

The United States is 200x larger in size (excluding Alaska) but has only 20x as many people as the Netherlands.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#207

Threads like these reminds me that HN is an overwhelmingly urban community with almost zero exposure to the agriculture sector

My favorite are the threads about how we need to get rid of cars and switch everyone to public transit and cycling. :)

As someone who is strongly wants to "get rid of cars and switch everyone to public transit and cycling" -- no one is talking about doing this in rural areas. Should we decrease reliance on cars in cities and focus more on alternative forms of transport? Yes. Will this work in rural areas? No, of course not.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#208

This is a story about supply chains and inflation, but the real story is that we're in the century of "peak resources". Fertilizer depends on phosphorous which cannot be renewed or substituted once its gone. Without fertilizer we can't support the multi-billion person population we have today. We're not running out tomorrow, or even this decade, but we may experience peak phosphorous within our lifetimes.

> Fertilizer depends on phosphorous which cannot be renewed or substituted once its gone. Can you elaborate? It's not like phosphorous in fertilizer are leaving Earth after being used as fertilizer.

See my other comment about CO2, with enough energy all things are possible.

There is something called the "phosphorous cycle" but its a lot like oil and does not replenish anywhere near the rate we consume it.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#209

Threads like these reminds me that HN is an overwhelmingly urban community with almost zero exposure to the agriculture sector

My favorite are the threads about how we need to get rid of cars and switch everyone to public transit and cycling. :)

Similarly, a sure-fire way to tell someone hasn't lived in a place where you haven't needed a car for every aspect of life is when they criticize anti-car policy without engaging with the deeper reasons behind it :)

I think a lot of the pushback against cars have to do with the popularization of human-centric design movements that question the assumption that cars are the pinnacle of transportation that American cities have operated from since about the 1950s. An easy example is the idea of "induced demand" [1] that shows even from a pure engineering perspective that the cost-benefit math for cars has long been unfairly weighted towards cars by outside forces.

We're seeing a lot of pressure around housing and energy and social policy in general which in turn is making us question decisions we've made, culturally, in history, like can we really sustain the building of less dense housing for our growing population? Does it make sense to give every family 0.75 acres of grass, 400 sqft of driveway and a 2 car garage, when those things are only used some of the time? Might there be better ways to approach the utilization of that space as a population?

I'm rambling now, but I get frustrated when people dismiss concerns like that out of hand. Can the US ever totally get rid of cars? No, not for a hundred years at least. Having a good 80 years of city planning being focused around every adult having their own vehicle is of course going to e difficult to move away from, and there are certain lifestyles (rural living, farming, regions where building trains is more impractical) that it'll just never be a great idea... but I still think it's worth interrogating these assumptions we've carried to see if there's a better way we could be living life.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand#Effect_in_trans...

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was reading the journals of Gareth Jones about his time spent in Soviet Russia and Ukraine, and find remarkable similarities to this sort of thing. The government took over, for example, the manufacture and maintenance of tractors, and also selected people nearly at random to maintain them. The one guy he interviewed said something to the extent that the tractors barely last a year before breaking. The people who d…

Late Soviet regime produced so much farm hardware as if it wanted to outright lay siege to the field and storm it by having greater numbers. Most of it went rotting. I remember a village school with a large yard full of half-disassembled tractors and combines. Apparently the students were supposed to learn to use all the stuff and then give the field no rest. In reality it would just rot. I don't think you should lab…

I didn't take incompetent as an insult, but in its straightforward, descriptive sense: the people were not competent at the jobs they were assigned to (and, presumably, weren't given sufficient help in becoming competent)
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