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The great VC pullback of 2022

mattturck.com

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Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I see it. Yes, it will hurt a few thousands currently working in overvalued growth startups, but profitable companies will continue to chug along just fine as they have hoards of cash and very low debt. Basically a return to a state where a "Unicorn startup" is actually somewhat rare.

My view is based on the amount of notional money that exists due to the high valuations. Once that disappears, it's going to trigger a much bigger collapse, same as the mortgages did. It's not about the employees that are directly involved (though they will be hurt too), it's the relationship with the whole financial system.

Mortgages were a large part of the credit bubble prior to 2008, but very far from the only part. It also extended to consumer credit, leveraged loans, bank and insurer funding, more or less every credit market. And mortgages are and were a much larger part of the economy too than VC is now. This isn't to say VC hasn't experienced a bubble over the past few years or that there won't be a broader downturn, just that I'm pretty sure VC won't be something which causes contagion like that.

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#72
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right -- it's a bit harsh. I've been on both sides of the investment committee meetings. As a result of that, I've seen (and delivered) this messaging before. Matt's an excellent investor and someone I respect and trust. So are the other investors putting up orange flags for their portfolio. It's smart to be prepared early. But it always seems like investors get giddy with excitement about saying the "sky is f…

That's a fair assessment and there are a lot of different impacts to be aware of. Like you said founders who are hypersensitive and might over react probably need a slightly less responsive response to VC. Tough power dynamic though so I get why founders would react. The cash-rich funds are coming in as there aren't good looking exits at this point due to the inflated valuations / overall market conditions. Might be…

Thanks both for a thoughtful discussion.

Just one important nuance -- VCs like me who come in early and stay with portfolio companies for 5-10 years are both on the "buy" and "sell" side of the market.

So yes, a slower VC funding environment does impact valuations favorably for VCs, for net new investments (the "buy" side), so I'm talking my book to some extent.

BUT net new investments is only a part of the job (So yes, in the long term, it's good for VCs if we're able to invest in (the right) companies in the 2022-2023 cohort at lower valuations. But that will take 8-10 years to manifest into concrete results, by the time those companies become very big. In the meantime, VCs won't have a lot of fun navigating a flat round/downround environment (if it does indeed materialize) with their existing portfolio.

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#73
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is fine for the VC. They are well diversified. It sucks for employees.

How does it suck for employees? They still get paid. Any stock options or grants are essentially a lottery ticket. Anyone taking a job offer expecting to get rich on that basis is a fool.

Private companies usually pay less in tech in cash than public companies cash+RSUs. Even in the current brutal stock market environment, at least your RSUs are guaranteed to be worth something and you can diversify when you vest.

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#74
post #27

Having been at a series C+ company that ran out of money. There are a few things to keep in mind if you are working at a non-profitable startup. 1) Investors need to invest in something , not continuing operations. Companies who are about to run out of money will often claim to pivot in a different direction, launch new products, or go on hiring binges. A good sign that something is amiss is when all of this isn't ba…

I'm an old fart who was around for the dot com days. Huge red flag the minute leadership shifts from growth to profitability. Usually a good time to update your CV.

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#75

As a bystander not viewing this through SV lens, I do somewhat hope that the VC bubble bursts (although I 100% feel bad for low level employees that will suffer). Looking at the market during 20-21 it seemed like it was acting in ways that, at least to me, feel like market manipulation/fraud/pyramid scheme (see SPACs). Companies that barely even had a product were "valued" at billions - it just doesn't make sense. Al…

Just to be clear, it's not just VC. This high valuation bubble applies to all companies, including public ones.

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#76
post #50

This isn't good for startups being able to hire and retain talent. Engineering compensation, especially for those with experience, has increased significantly over the last 2 years and smaller rounds at lower valuations will make it increasingly difficult for startups to retain talent when they can make 2-4x as much at a large public company that can afford them. Shame.

The value added by employees at larger companies is also taking a major hit due to the lower revenue multiples.

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#77
post #74
post #27

Having been at a series C+ company that ran out of money. There are a few things to keep in mind if you are working at a non-profitable startup. 1) Investors need to invest in something , not continuing operations. Companies who are about to run out of money will often claim to pivot in a different direction, launch new products, or go on hiring binges. A good sign that something is amiss is when all of this isn't ba…

I'm an old fart who was around for the dot com days. Huge red flag the minute leadership shifts from growth to profitability. Usually a good time to update your CV.

Wish I had read this very comment years earlier in my life.

Let that be my way of saying: this comment is dead-on.

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#78
The Tech class is creating a bubble simply based being divorced from problems of actual people. Nobody needs web3 on NFTs. These problems appeal to woke or libertarian tech bro's view of some theoretical, distant scifi future techies want to believe in. Solving these problems matter increasingly little to the vast majority of the society trying to solve more fundamental problems.

You wonder if the center of entrepreneurship will move away from tech companies to more practical concerns for a while?

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#79

The Tech class is creating a bubble simply based being divorced from problems of actual people. Nobody needs web3 on NFTs. These problems appeal to woke or libertarian tech bro's view of some theoretical, distant scifi future techies want to believe in. Solving these problems matter increasingly little to the vast majority of the society trying to solve more fundamental problems. You wonder if the center of entrepren…

I agree with you on automatic juice pouch squeezers, but ironically, NFTs are not a tech class demand in that non-accredited idiot "investors" are driving demand.

Re: The great VC pullback of 2022

#80
post #67

Funding startups to do what? The next big thing? - 2016 was the year of self-driving cars. - 2017 was the year of 3D TV - 2019 was the year of VR - 2021 was the year of NFTs. Augmented reality is probably the next item for that list. Here's the current YC batch.[1] Too much crypto crap. Lots of "Salesforce for X". Lots of "Payment thing for Outer Nowhere". An asteroid mining company. I can see throwing $500K at a lot…

You can also say the same about any batch:

https://www.ycombinator.com/companies?batch=W12

Lots of payment apps

Lots of cloud for X

Mobile apps for the Y industry

Uber for Z

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