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Is everything falling apart?

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Re: Is everything falling apart?

#461

Post by kmonsen »

Clubber wrote: post #403
blauditore wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from them at any one time. This doesn't need to be a ponzi scheme though. Even if population size is stable, if people on average work longer than they are retired, they have to pay less than they receive, all things equal. A problem here has been that people get increasingly older, so they spend a larger percentage of their life being retired, maki…

The biggest issue with social security funding is there is a cap on it. Once you put in so much a year, you don't have to put in anymore. It's essentially a regressive system. A guy who makes a million bucks a year only has to pay social security as if he made $147K. For example, in 2022, everyone only pays social security tax on their first $147K. https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/maxtax.html

But the output is depending on how much you put it, it’s actually progressive. Just less so than taxation in general.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#462

Post by Johnny555 »

unsupp0rted wrote: post #213
Johnny555 wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't speak of all civilizations, but I do think that there can't be any human civilizations that last indefinitely -- human nature will prevent it.

There definitely can be human civilizations that last indefinitely, so long as we stop keeping all our eggs in one basket, planet-wise. Once we get humans living far enough apart that information about pandemics travels faster than pandemics do, then we should be largely invincible, barring suicide from ennui. The larger our sub-galactic civilization, the more resilient it becomes to things like total war, total poli…

So as long as we do what no society has ever done, society can last forever?

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#464

Post by flappyeagle »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #432
shigawire wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alex Jones spits on people and tells them it's raining.

Quoted post unavailable.

He's been wrong 100x more than he's been correct. He spends the entire day spouting random garbage, and you can cherry-pick the 10 pieces of garbage that happened to be true.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#465

Post by throwaway6734 »

ravenstine wrote: post #111

Everything is not falling apart, though certain institutions may be falling apart. In America, there's definitely been a breakdown of belief in its own institutions. Far more people are skeptical of things like journalism and Silicon Valley; it really wasn't that long ago that the former was constantly salivating over the latter, but now it's more of an openly vulture-carrion relationship because that caters to publi…

>Civilization ebbs and flows, but I think the current sentiment is unprecedented in my lifetime

I generally agree that anti-instutional sentiment is at short term highs, but from what I've read it doesn't seem remotely as bad is it was in the 60s.

>People who I would consider "normies" even don't trust law enforcement and the FBI anymor

Ehh I think this is mostly short term partisan politiking

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#466

Post by zitterbewegung »

Doesn’t this get brought up every few years and the answer is neither yes or no but instead everything is changing. When companies disrupt others they put them out of business but it doesn’t mean they do a complete replacement . When Google and Facebook disrupted text advertisement local reporting disappeared. The Internet made companies that can have services anywhere but the people who make them work moved to the coastal cities which unemployed many people. Just in time manufacturing shifted it to other places and the rise of computers made manufacturing in the US much less than it was before.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#468

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

bradlys wrote: post #442
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot more political polarization, no doubt, but I'm actually not sure it's true that there's more social division. A few decades ago, basic questions like "is it OK for different races to get married" and "should women participate fully in society" remained unresolved, with a ton of people wielding substantial power sitting on the "no" side. (The Handmaid's Tale wasn't meant to be some crazy impossible premi…

I’d read Robert Putnam’s book Bowling Alone or The Upswing. (Or just watch him talk about it on YouTube) Social division is definitely higher than it’s ever been in decades. Racism and sexism is less prevalent but social division is actually higher than ever.

I hate to make both of us feel ancient, but Bowling Alone was written in the "decades ago" period I'm talking about. While the trend of social atomization has definitely continued, I don't think division as such has gotten worse since then.

(Seconding the recommendation though, it is a good book.)

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#470

Post by throwaway6734 »

oicU00 wrote: post #252
ravenstine wrote: post #111

Everything is not falling apart, though certain institutions may be falling apart. In America, there's definitely been a breakdown of belief in its own institutions. Far more people are skeptical of things like journalism and Silicon Valley; it really wasn't that long ago that the former was constantly salivating over the latter, but now it's more of an openly vulture-carrion relationship because that caters to publi…

Oh yeah no doubt; I collate trends into reports for rich investors. Lately they have been focused on youth trends, and some numbers are wacky. 40% point drop in 16 year olds getting a license since the 80s as urbanization puts people closer to stuff and ride share appeared. Youth participation in sports, especially full contact sports, had been going down since before covid which just accelerated it, leading to forec…

>We engineered away stability for JIT, covid came along and proved to many we live in a Banana Republic exporting memes of exceptionalism, while most people can’t grow a potato for themselves.

This is hyperbolic. The US is not a banana republic. Why would you expect the average person to need to know how to grow a potato?

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