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Is everything falling apart?

nonzero.substack.com

391–400 of 970 posts

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#391
I think there's a bit of the Copernican fallacy at play here; the assumption that things are getting worse is pretty dramatic but it's not clear that it's supported in any real way.

We point to the riots last summer, and while there are debates about how severe they are, we willfully ignore that there have been riots in the past, even much more pervasive and deadly ones, even with a significantly lower population and population density than we have now.

There's political divisiveness, but students aren't getting shot at Kent State, and the Weather Underground isn't blowing up bombs in Manhattan, and there are no open wars being fought between private armies, militias, and government forces in West Virginia. Maybe once upon a time people were as passionate about George McGovern as people are now about Hillary Clinton, but passions fade and people forget.

There will be implications for the direction of history based on social networks and open information exchange, but likely we won't recognize them until far in the future. I'm sure there were dozens of upstart anti-Catholic movements that preceded Martin Luther and had the advantage of the printing press but fizzled out into nothing are are forgotten to history before the circumstances led to his success, but we can't see the invisible failures, only the visible successes, so we try to take lessons there.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to necessarily defend "woke" as a term, but if you pinned me down, I'd say the difference between woke and left is that Noam Chomsky isn't woke. He thinks free speech is very important and signed onto a famous letter on the topic of "cancel culture" and why it's bad. I don't think he has or would identify as anti-woke, but the general phenomenon of ideological capture in mass communications is something…

So you agree with me, that left and woke is not the same thing. Whats odd thou is, (1) there is no clear definition of wokeism, like its an arbitrary stereotype used by demagogues and (2), that woke is often displayed on the other side of right/conservative. This makes it a strong indicator of propaganda. A surface, people can project their negative emotions to, which is another red flag in terms of populism. Even yo…

On one level, sure, I'm definitely with you. The term "woke" is vague, subject to toxic stereotyping, and it'd be nice if people didn't use it.

But I don't think we can overlook the pressures that push people towards it. The problem is that a lot of movements that get grouped under "woke" self-identify with vacuously positive labels that can't be negated. If I go around telling people "anti-racism is bad", they're going to think I mean "racism is good", and they're not going to believe me when I clarify that I'm referring to specific policy ideas promoted in books such as Ibram X. Kendi's famous How to Be an Antiracist. Unless you're talking to people who are so politically engaged you can name-drop specific authors to start with, I'm not sure what term other than "woke" you could use.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#393

Well if Malthusian scientists are to be believed then we only really have another couple of decades at best before the global population level causes society to collapse. So you could interpret recent events to be the first warning signs of that. Personally I remain unconvinced of that, though. Or at least, it seems to me that humans have the unique benefit of being able to problem solve their way out of the issues r…

Somehow we are simultaneously doomed because of both too little and too much population growth

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your summary is obscuring some of the nuance in that data. What it shows is that independent voters self-identify as "lean rep"/"lean dem" based on their approval of the current president, which is low right now. Historically though, self-identified independents lean dem more than they lean rep (data in your link). Consider that the last time a Republican presidential candidate won the popular vote was in 200…

You break out a poll to cast a group as fringe. Other people bring up other polls (more recent ones) to counter that argument, and then you shift to a different line of evidence citing "historical trends." Please, take this advice to heart, you are clearly trying to justify a conclusion with whatever evidence you can grab at hand. Take a step back and ask yourself if tribal loyalty is clouding your judgement. We are…

Agreed. Also, calling conservatives a minority is misleading since I'd hardly call like 47% a minority. It's technically true, but it's awfully close to even.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#395
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

> no one is trying to change sex or biological genders Except when they let men compete in women's sports. So if I have to choose between the new lefty version of gender, or what we had before, I'm going to choose the old way because it didn't result in comically ridiculous outcomes like that.

This is such a tired canard. Biological sex is an imprecise and discriminatory proxy for physical performance, and we can do better. Professional boxing already includes an additional objective measure—weight class—to improve match fairness. So not only is it possible to find a better discriminator, there is already one proven approach that can be used as a starting point today.

Furthermore, using biological sex as the discriminator in sport doesn’t just create unnecessary conflict for intersex and trans players, it also excludes cis-gendered people who are talented, love sport, but just didn’t win the genetic lottery. Dividing leagues by metrics other than gender gives everybody more opportunity to participate. Again, going back to boxing, if the only metric were gender, most or all of the people outside heavyweight class wouldn’t be participating at all.

Finally, I would also argue that team sport is more interesting when greater varieties of people with different strengths and weaknesses can play together. If we designed video games the way we run most sport leagues, matches would be split up into tanks vs tanks, dps vs dps, support vs support. Congratulations, you’ve made things “more even” by separating everyone using superficial physical traits, and lost most of the interesting dynamics of pitting different strengths against different weaknesses.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You break out a poll to cast a group as fringe. Other people bring up other polls (more recent ones) to counter that argument, and then you shift to a different line of evidence citing "historical trends." Please, take this advice to heart, you are clearly trying to justify a conclusion with whatever evidence you can grab at hand. Take a step back and ask yourself if tribal loyalty is clouding your judgement. We are…

The original point I was making, "republicans are a minority", is true, and the data shows that. This isn't a tribalism thing, it's a question of data analysis. Also, I take umbrage at your patronizing tone. Personally attacking me does not change the data.

No, it doesn't show that. You are a partisan trying to make a partisan point.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nations rise. ... Sometimes there's peace. In short: sometimes things aren't falling apart. For a few decades we enjoyed one of the great periods of peace and prosperity. That was surely doomed to end eventually, but I wish it could last a while longer.

It's an endless cycle. As the saying goes... Hard times make strong men Strong men make good times Good times make weak men And weak men make hard times.

This is one of the most factually incorrect things I see repeated over and over. I know it is quite a long read but it's explained pretty well here https://acoup.blog/category/collections/the-fremen-mirage/

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#398

Everything is not falling apart, though certain institutions may be falling apart. In America, there's definitely been a breakdown of belief in its own institutions. Far more people are skeptical of things like journalism and Silicon Valley; it really wasn't that long ago that the former was constantly salivating over the latter, but now it's more of an openly vulture-carrion relationship because that caters to publi…

We're in the last 50 years of industrial civilization. Anyone who spends enough time with systems thinking and looking at the big picture of industrial society inevitably comes to the same conclusion. I was a "doomer" back when everything seemed fine. Nothing since 2019 has surprised me at all. Things will continue to break down at a faster rate and more severely. However, one of my earliest realizations upon waking…

This coincides will my belief is the rise of self-degrading memes running rampant on every social platform I use. Every "funny" slogan, has a negative connotation, or self-degrading message attached to it. "When you only have $4.20 in your bank account", "How I look in the mirror vs tagged photo", etc.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#399
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quote is about moral strength and virtue, not muscles.

Virtue is not what survives hard times, it's grit and brutality. Raw strength. Morals and virtues are what arise during good times once we've secured survival.

I'd argue that virtue is a strong survival trait, and vice is a sign of weakness. But we may be considering different things, different aspects of life.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#400
Hacker News is a positive counterexample. The people, the community, the platform.

Let's apply the methods that have made this work so well also elsewhere.

A few ideas. Professional moderation. Crowd moderation with downvoting and flagging. Guidelines. Culture of restraint.

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