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U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

wsj.com

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Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#91

Post by AYBABTME »

omginternets wrote: post #51
matthewdgreen wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe also losing 1.1 million people (according to the CDC's "excess deaths" website) wasn't that good for our economy either.

I really don’t want to sound calloused because caring for the weak and the elderly is a pillar of civilizations, but my impression was that the bulk of “excess deaths” were not among the most economically active populations. I could just as easily see this having the opposite economic effect: reducing the burden on the state for such things as retirement and Medicaid.

> caring for the weak and the elderly is a pillar of civilizations

I'm not sure that's true. Many civilizations, up to and including now, have the cultural practice of the weak and elderly destroying themselves (or being destroyed) when they become a burden on their relative/society. The most obvious example being the concept of east asian (Korean/Japanese) elders "going to the mountain to die".

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#92

Post by lumost »

altacc wrote: post #35
incomingpain wrote: post #2

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

From a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US? From what I see of human nature, mos…

The January 6th event brought tensions to a high point, and caused many Americans on the liberal side to rethink how they approach those on the right. The event left many Americans fearful of a violent attempt to subvert the democratic process, with those on the right believing that their votes weren't counted.

With a paralyzed legislative body, tensions are likely to grow in the future as the government fails to deliver reforms that either side wants while simultaneously beating the drums on issues that both sides refuses to compromise on.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#93

Post by dntrkv »

usrn wrote: post #66
dntrkv wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re confusing people’s online rhetoric with their IRL interactions. If there was no civil war after 2008, there sure as hell won’t be one this time when people are doing better by most metrics. American’s financial situations are actually quite good right now. Everybody is just anxious as fuck, for many reasons.

An odd thing to say after people spent the last couple summers burning things down

Again, that’s not the first time that’s happened. We’ve had worse and it didn’t lead to civil war.

Think about what a civil war would entail. It is literally war between neighbors. You really think Americans are ready to kill each other en masse and give up everything they have, for what?

It’s easy to make proclamations about some abstract idea of “civil war” but the reality is that most Americans are doing relatively well and would not stake their lives on something that doesn’t even promise a better outcome.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#94

Post by watwut »

pjc50 wrote: post #49

Always wondering exactly what people mean when they talk of "civil unrest", and who and how will it start. Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count? On the other hand, Elon Musk Twitter purchase: $44bn. There's plenty of money out there still. I think it's unlikely that merely raising rates will do anything, for two reasons: firstly there's a real need to do some fiscal policy a…

> Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count?

Is there any reason those would not count as "civil unrest"? And non-rioting protesters of whom there was plenty count as civil unrest too.

> On the other hand, Elon Musk Twitter purchase: $44bn. There's plenty of money out there still.

Not sure what that has to do with civil unrests. Some people being super rich does not imply all that much benefit for the other people in the same country.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#95

Post by mupuff1234 »

taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

I'm pretty sure that's why they waited so long to raise interests, as they thought supply chain issue would be resolved and all will come back to normal.

Although that doesn't really explain the inflation of asset values.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#96

Post by gruez »

kasey_junk wrote: post #16
recursivedoubts wrote: post #9

Shows just how sensitive our economy is to small interest rate fluctuations, having lived around the zero bound for over a decade. We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible while at the same time making real production more and more difficult (or, during the early lock downs, impossible) and, well, the long run is here. Keynes was right: he's dead. Unfortunately, we, and our children, are not.

The US Fed didn’t raise interest rates until March, much too late to cause this number.

It was already priced in. On jan 3 the markets were predicting a 57.12% chance of interest rate increase to 25-50bp, 3.6% chance of increasing to 50-75bp.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to...

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#97

Post by gsibble »

germinalphrase wrote: post #69
gsibble wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of very angry conservatives who are getting angrier by the day. And they own the vast majority of the guns.

That cohort is still a numerical minority and while they may own the majority of civilian firearms, the United States government absolutely owns the majority of effective weapons. That said, calling the potential conflict a “domestic insurgency” is not much of a comfort compared to “civil war” even if the former is unlikely to be an existential threat to the country.

According to studies, it only takes 3.5% of a population revolting to foment a successful revolution. I'd argue we're approaching that figure. Might take a few more years, but I could see it in the US in our lifetimes.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35...

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#98

Post by jbay808 »

taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

Just because inflation is being caused by supply constraints, doesn't mean that raising interest rates is an inappropriate response.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#99

Post by krapp »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #62
pjc50 wrote: post #49

Always wondering exactly what people mean when they talk of "civil unrest", and who and how will it start. Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count? On the other hand, Elon Musk Twitter purchase: $44bn. There's plenty of money out there still. I think it's unlikely that merely raising rates will do anything, for two reasons: firstly there's a real need to do some fiscal policy a…

>Always wondering exactly what people mean when they talk of "civil unrest", and who and how will it start. Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count? A whole lotta people, mostly outside the HN demographics, are real pissed off about a decade of public policy that has amounted to making their lives worse and worse at every juncture and now it's finally getting to the point where…

>A whole lotta people, mostly outside the HN demographics, are real pissed off about a decade of public policy that has amounted to making their lives worse and worse at every juncture and now it's finally getting to the point where ends are hard to meet.

They had four years under Trump threatening the city-dwellers and neo-liberals, a literal armed rioting mob, sympathy within the government and law enforcement and a gallows in front of the Capitol on Jan. 6th. They had the half of the country with all of the guns and all of the dreams of patriotic revolutionary glory convinced the election was being stolen at that moment by Chinese communists and the very party they blamed for all of their problems.

If they couldn't make it happen then, when all of the stars were aligned and the winds of populist ferver were at their backs, I don't think anything more than an occasional riot is going to happen in the future.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#100

Post by alexk307 »

incomingpain wrote: post #64
boringg wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are living too deep in your fears - lots of doom and gloom here. There isn't anything relative to a food shortage about to happen in the US and certainly we aren't on the cusp of a civil war. DC is actually less acrimonious than it was. The equity market is not the economy and a lot of the financial websites make money on hyping up the latest quarterly numbers. Are there concerns here? Yes, there always a…

Quoted post unavailable.

What are you talking about? Biden is going to use nuclear weapons against US citizens? I assure you, there is no food shortage in the United States. The S&P500 went down 15%, calm down, it'll go back up.
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