U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#41

Post by altacc » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:02 PM UTC

incomingpain wrote: post #18

JKCalhoun wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A civil pillar like food scarcity will spark more than civil unrest. Probably will be civil war before midterms happen. Like what happened with the Great Depression? I saw no mention of food shortages in the article. My sense is that civil wars are when states/governments fight, not hungry people. You could have stopped at civil unrest.

Arab spring is a more modern example. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-bread-food-pr... https://medium.com/something-about-everything/food-riots-and... >My sense is that civil wars are when states/governments fight, not hungry people. You could have stopped at civil unrest. What happens when food is scarce and people are starving for possibly the first time in their life? Anxiety, depression, etc is wel…

The level of food shortage you're talking about is extreme and very unlikely, excepting an extremely unlikely series of major disasters. It would take a lot to overcome people's inertia to action and by that stage of your theoretical disaster they will be too focused on immediate needs of food, energy & safety for them and their family to consider wider actions.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#42

Post by gsibble » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:04 PM UTC

itsoktocry wrote: post #14

MaysonL wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> food scarcity How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.

> How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion. First, I'm skeptical about $4 billion. That's a lot of food. Second, what is with the need to bring up something or someone irrelevant as a rebuttal every time there's even a tangential criticism of the current powers-that-be?

Because they have no actual rebuttal.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#43

Post by germinalphrase » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:05 PM UTC

altacc wrote: post #35

incomingpain wrote: post #2

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

From a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US? From what I see of human nature, mos…

There is a distinct element of the American psyche that focuses on anti-government suspicions, self determination, armed resistance, etc.

It’s part of our founding mythos and reinvents itself in all sorts of contexts.

Doesn’t mean it is at all realistic for our present circumstances. I don’t happen to think so. An increase in stochastic violence? Sure. Actual, organized civil war? No chance.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#44

Post by gsibble » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:06 PM UTC

altacc wrote: post #35

incomingpain wrote: post #2

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

From a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US? From what I see of human nature, mos…

There are a lot of very angry conservatives who are getting angrier by the day. And they own the vast majority of the guns.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#45

Post by usrn » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:06 PM UTC

dntrkv wrote: post #39

incomingpain wrote: post #2

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

Oh yeah, remember the civil war of 1982? When inflation was 14% and The Fed raised rates to purposefully start a recession? Give me a break, we’ve been through much worse. Let’s stop with the FUD please.

People got along a lot better with their neighbors in the 80s than they do now.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#46

Post by omginternets » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:07 PM UTC

bko wrote: post #28

recursivedoubts wrote: post #9

Shows just how sensitive our economy is to small interest rate fluctuations, having lived around the zero bound for over a decade. We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible while at the same time making real production more and more difficult (or, during the early lock downs, impossible) and, well, the long run is here. Keynes was right: he's dead. Unfortunately, we, and our children, are not.

> We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible Household debt to GDP has gone down since the low interest rate environment kicked off in 2010. Same is true for household debt as a percentage of personal income. Although I will note that its debt payments, not absolute amount of debt and obviously lower rates lower the interest portion of debt payments. I agree there is something troubling going on but it…

Could that also be because people are living paycheck to paycheck and not buying things like houses and cars anymore?

Relatedly: a decrease in debt is exactly what I would expect from an Uberized economy where nobody owns anything anymore. I’m not sure this is such a good measure of economic health.

Stated differently: a small amount of debt is an indication that people are investing in things. That’s usually a good sign.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#47

Post by usrn » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:07 PM UTC

MaysonL wrote: post #6

incomingpain wrote: post #2

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

> food scarcity How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.

Abbott wouldn't be doing things like that if the Federal Government would do it's job.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#48

Post by buscoquadnary » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:08 PM UTC

matthewdgreen wrote: post #29

recursivedoubts wrote: post #9

Shows just how sensitive our economy is to small interest rate fluctuations, having lived around the zero bound for over a decade. We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible while at the same time making real production more and more difficult (or, during the early lock downs, impossible) and, well, the long run is here. Keynes was right: he's dead. Unfortunately, we, and our children, are not.

Maybe also losing 1.1 million people (according to the CDC's "excess deaths" website) wasn't that good for our economy either.

Actually as callous as it sounds extra deaths are good for the economy.

More dead people means fewer competitors for all resources except labor. What that means is fewer people need stuff and there are fewer people to make stuff, so the stuff the dead people had is easy to obtain for the living while employers have to pay more for labor because there is less of it.

As evidence the black plague was considered one of the major events that ended the dark ages and the oppressions (relatively speaking) of the peasant class. Suddenly lord's needed to start giving their peasants rights and things to do or risk losing them to a lord that would give them those things.

It's horrible and callous but it is also a fact, especially when you consider many of those deaths were not among the most productive segments of society.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#49

Post by pjc50 » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:09 PM UTC

Always wondering exactly what people mean when they talk of "civil unrest", and who and how will it start. Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count?

On the other hand, Elon Musk Twitter purchase: $44bn. There's plenty of money out there still.

I think it's unlikely that merely raising rates will do anything, for two reasons: firstly there's a real need to do some fiscal policy as well, and secondly this inflation is being driven by real shortages not just the bidding up of goods. Chip shortages, fossil fuel shortages due to cutting Russia off the world market, food shortages, and the war in Europe's sixth-largest country destroying a lot of production capacity. Not to mention ongoing COVID costs.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#50

Post by usrn » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:09 PM UTC

giraffe_lady wrote: post #7

usrn wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're saying there will be food shortages this year. Combined with mass immigration from failed states (so already bringing violence + spreading what little we have even thinner) civil unrest is certain.

Wait do we have little now? When did that change because when I look around I see much, much that we won't share. Do immigrants always bring violence? Why did their states fail anyway? Could we have had a hand in that, bear some responsibility? Whatever the specifics of the answers you see to these questions your comment sucks. It's using racist fears to stoke xenophobic resentment.

No post body was provided.