Earlier quoted context omitted.
As is usually the case when monstrous plots are afoot, the villain cheerfully told the world exactly what he was planning to do and why. He wants to recreate the Soviet Union. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/22/putin-... Initial "peace proposals" from Russia included a rollback of NATO's military assistance to its 1997 condition, explicitly limiting the sovereignty of Poland and the Baltic states:…
> The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West How does your comment follow logically from this one? "We'll occupy Ukraine and we'll keep occupying it and we want you to give us more!" What kind of negotiation with Ukraine was that?
Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
51–60 of 253 posts
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#5220% interest rates. Yes, just raising rates to a high enough level is enough. This is macroeconomic policy 101. It will seriously deflate the Russian economy, recent World Bank projections are for a -11% GDP drop (Ukraine: -40% drop). That's a very severe recession. You can always defend a currency at the expense of jobs, it was done in the US too, by Paul Volcker.
Even with this internet rate they are experiencing elevated inflation. The ruble may be stable, but these conditions of high interest and capital controls are expected to severely damage the economy if they are maintained.
It's macroeconomic policy 101, tested many times throughout history in various countries, both positively (when you do this then inflation/depreciation stops) and negatively (when you don't do this then inflation/depreciation continues).
There are many unanswered question in macroeconomics, but this isn't one of them.
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#53Not an economist, but my understanding is that they propped up the ruble by requiring it to be used for transactions that could previously have settled in other currencies, and by forbidding certain foreign currency purchases. If you can't buy dollars, it doesn't matter what the exchange rate is. Obviously that won't work, long term.
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#54Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#55The value of a currency isn't exactly decided by what it is worth to Americans. Russia still has everything they had before the war, which is still as intrinsically valuable as ever & they are still willing to trade. They haven't changed their regulatory environment in crazy ways and haven't suffered major hits to their productive capacity. In some senses, it is difficult to see why a sanctions attack against Russia…
> I'd still buy Russian products after Ukraine Good to announce your cheerful complicity in mass murder on here so we know not to take you seriously.
I'm not complicit in anything. That is war fever talking saying there is anything here to support. I just want to see peace and prosperity, which sanctions do not achieve.
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure anyone knows the "real" reason for all this, although we've heard a lot of stated ones.
Ukraine was "not negotiable" Russian according to multiple statements from Putin, so that part about "negotiating concessions" is provably false. Why that was the case is indeed complex. Russia did not try to negotiate Ukraine away initially. The messaging was clear: it's ours. Now they might negotiate something because Ukraine is kicking their teeth in, but that's after the fact and completely forced.
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#57Russia, and perhaps even more China, simply have done without saying a new Bretton Wood where instead of electing a currency the one for anything, a currency based on thin air, handled by a private cleptocratic company remaining in power thanks to propaganda and the army power, they propose one based on something tangible like natural resources and industrial power. Other countries have started to join (like Saudi Arabia, Israel and partially EU so far, the first two accepting renmimbi for oilm tge last for accepting paying Russian gas in rubles) and others "ante litteram" have already tested that and was crushed (like Saddam's Iraq with oil in euros vs dollar, just before Iraqi invasion by the USA or Qaddafi's Libya against the Paris controlled CFA designing a new local pan-African currency).
In the past the west have had the biggest world power in tech, industry, military, science etc than all those start to wane crushed by an economically-driven society. EU lost its place from WWI, USA gain back than and thanks to WWII establish a global power but now de-industrialization, new cyclic big crisis typical of all neoliberals models, with no one left to invade and steal big resources, internal populations reactions (strikes, social unrest, scandals etc) and the growth of big enough superpower, one industrial (China) and one in natural resources terms (Russia) have made the change. Neoliberals need a war to remain in power but they lost such war even before it's start. So countries with neoliberals dominance and their currencies (dollar, sterling and euro) decline while new affirming powers rise. Not that much just because China have an extremely deep food problem: they can't nourish it's own people and their industrial system is still to lean toward export for the west, Russia have natural resources, but it's not anymore Soviet Union, it's economy is in a terrible shape and the need of China for mass production is a big vulnerability. But still enough to make the ruble rise and stabilize.
EU have admitted, while informally/in actions not words, that no solution exists to makes a real embargo on Russian resources, we have started to buy gas in ruble [1] oil is still exchanged [2] with tricks, we still need aluminum, palladium, titanium, ... from Russia etc. Nothing can be done quickly and effectively. Neoliberals have clearly pictured how powerless they are [3] like believers who say "to solve any issue we pry the god of the market that by market magic it will solve our crisis". So Russia know well that like the Korean war no compact front will exists against them. USA know fully well they haven't anymore an industrial complex sufficient to get rid of China quickly and UK know fully well they do not have anymore an empire, they can just hope for USA help in exchange of Commonwealth natural resources witch aren't really much under UK control anymore. On the other side the above described issues impede a quick win so we are there faltering a bit.
The first winner anyway is China: they get Russia, so the biggest reservoir of natural resources and probably high tech Russians military tech they equally need. USA have re-win EU, at least until EU Citizens will revolt against our corrupted government that act against our interest for some third party that prove countless time being no friend of us. So they are the II winner. Others are just looser. Many new movement will happen for India, the Gulf, Iran, Myanmar etc that will surely try to earn something in the game and while "marginal" just by their size and resources they are contended and contenders. That's is. The Rand idea to weaken Russia [4] works at a so high price that dollar can't win. The actual WWIII will probably see no real winner, but probably the least looser will be eastern-shifted and currencies start to reflect that a bit.
[1] https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/21419-european-commis...
[2] https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-russia-avoids-oil-sanctio...
[3] https://voxeu.org/article/how-solve-europe-s-russian-gas-con...
[4] https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/R...
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure anyone knows the "real" reason for all this, although we've heard a lot of stated ones.
Ukraine was "not negotiable" Russian according to multiple statements from Putin, so that part about "negotiating concessions" is provably false. Why that was the case is indeed complex. Russia did not try to negotiate Ukraine away initially. The messaging was clear: it's ours. Now they might negotiate something because Ukraine is kicking their teeth in, but that's after the fact and completely forced.
Like cutting the gas supply to the country itself to drop the transfer fees?
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#59Russian exports have been badly dented, but some oil and gas remains. Russian imports have been completely wrecked. Effectively the sanctions have _improved_ their balance of payments. They have some money, but nobody will sell to them. Slightly different situation from their money being worthless because they're outspending their ability to earn hard currency.
>but nobody will sell to them. The self anointed "international community" is only a very small fraction of the actual world. This is typical western hubris and arrogance thinking that everyone will blindly follow them and those who don't, will powerlessly suffer the consequences of the wrath of the west. Russia has money, the world loves money, the world will sell to Russia. Not only that, but there's no shortage of…
judging by Western MSM you see here in Europe you would think everyone in world sanctioned evil Russia while opposite is true
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#60Dead Cat Bounce brought to you by lots and lots of spending/maneuvering. Not sustainable. In about 2-3 months, Russia is fucked and will be forced to move to a new economic model apart from the world. The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West Now they are finding themselves fighting a nation with a direct IV line from the US defense budget (similar to Israel)…
> The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West. Nope, it was to take Ukraine quickly and parade it as an internal trophy, while also taking out a possible big competitor for the oil and gas market. Putin didn't want any concessions from the West, just business as usual. He wanted to be left alone to "digest Ukraine" and ponder next steps. Edit: I'd want to hear p…