Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

pajiba.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

891–900 of 1001 posts

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#891

Post by deepzn »

FridgeSeal wrote: post #869
loceng wrote: post #857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 200k subscribers number is missing the elephant in the room. They expected 2.5 million new subscribers. They didn't get those 2.5 million new subscribers and actually lost 200k, so they're technically -2.7 million subscribers. This may have also triggered an exodus of subscribers too, even if Netflix doesn't do anything additionally stupid to turnoff consumers.

I know it’s commonly used logic, because announcements and expectations and whatnot, but I find the logic of: > They didn't get those 2.5 million new subscribers and actually lost 200k, so they're technically -2.7 million subscribers To be extremely questionable, if not outright incorrect. They didn’t lose something they didn’t have. 2.5m people didn’t leave, 200k did. Sure, they didn’t reach a target of 2.5m new use…

They actually lost 700K subs to Russia, when they stopped the service there, and some around EMEA too. They actually added 500K subs net minus Russia impact.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#892

Post by incongruity »

FridgeSeal wrote: post #869
loceng wrote: post #857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 200k subscribers number is missing the elephant in the room. They expected 2.5 million new subscribers. They didn't get those 2.5 million new subscribers and actually lost 200k, so they're technically -2.7 million subscribers. This may have also triggered an exodus of subscribers too, even if Netflix doesn't do anything additionally stupid to turnoff consumers.

I know it’s commonly used logic, because announcements and expectations and whatnot, but I find the logic of: > They didn't get those 2.5 million new subscribers and actually lost 200k, so they're technically -2.7 million subscribers To be extremely questionable, if not outright incorrect. They didn’t lose something they didn’t have. 2.5m people didn’t leave, 200k did. Sure, they didn’t reach a target of 2.5m new use…

I mean, pedantically, you’re correct but you’re missing a very substantive point - we regularly deal with metrics which are rates (or vectors) of change. Velocity is change in distance over time, for example - what Netflix had is a reversal of their growth. They had expected all inputs to yield at positive 2.5 mil. change in members. Instead, the lost 200k members. It is completely sensible to talk about their loss of velocity of growth. Moreover, if you want to be get into technicalities, they lost many more customers than 200k - but they gained enough new customers to net -200k - so why not object to that technically imprecise language too? Why? Because while technically incorrect, it still communicates something useful, just as it does to talk about the lost growth vs. expectations.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#893

Post by specialist »

ryanSrich wrote: post #820
rdtsc wrote: post #806

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they raised their prices - significantly Yeah, and I was right on the edge, not really watching it enough to justify the previous, cheaper, price. When they raised the price it served as a motivation to cancel it. In a 6 months I might join for a bit to watch some newer shows, then probably cancel again. Raising prices works well perhaps if people are in love with the product or there is just no other alternative.…

Yeah I’m surprised at how little I’m seeing about this. I canceled last month because of the price increase, and I would not have canceled if they hadn’t raised prices. At $9-$14 it’s fine if I only watch it once a month. But at $20 it’s no longer worth it.

I'm now hopping between streaming subscriptions. Round robin style.

eg When Apple TV accumulates enough new binge worthy stuff, I'll sign up for a month. So probably once a year. Ditto all the other streamers.

It's now pretty rare that I'm compelled to see new OC apon release. Excepting The Orville, natch.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#894

Post by jmyeet »

zmmmmm wrote: post #775

All the handwringing over Netflix subscriber loss seems to be overlooking the fact that they raised their prices - significantly. Of course they could lose subscribers from doing that. But 200k subscribers out of 150 million? Combined with the end of the pandemic and sky high inflation meaning many people have less opportunity to watch and less money to spend. The fact they raised their prices something like 20% and…

You focused on price and I think that's a significant factor. Where once Netflix was $8 not really that long ago, it's now $15.50, which is more expensive than HBO (and HBO Max with the merger has an even deeper catalog than it did in the HBO Now time, even though the HBO Now software and website was IMHO much better).

What these media companies seem to want is for us to pay $100/month in various streaming services rather than the $80/month we were paying for cable because, hey, we should pay for the privilege of unbundling right? I refuse. Netflix is no longer an automatic renewal. I'll sign up for it 1-2 months a year to binge watch on certain shows.

But you glossed over a really important point I haven't seen given much attention: the pandemic. The pandemic was a huge boost for subscriber numbers for obvious reasons and we're now pretty much at the end of the pandemic (as far as staying indoors goes, anyway). That has to have an impact.

Additionaly, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has cut off hundreds of thousands of subscribers due to the sanctions. IIRC I heard this was 700,000. If so, isn't down 200K still a net increase?

The stock market routinely overbuys and oversells on good and bad news. It's the fear and greed cycle. And this honestly feels like an overreaction that'll be corrected as soon as Netflix spends some time controlling costs.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#895

Post by bisby »

FridgeSeal wrote: post #869
loceng wrote: post #857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 200k subscribers number is missing the elephant in the room. They expected 2.5 million new subscribers. They didn't get those 2.5 million new subscribers and actually lost 200k, so they're technically -2.7 million subscribers. This may have also triggered an exodus of subscribers too, even if Netflix doesn't do anything additionally stupid to turnoff consumers.

I know it’s commonly used logic, because announcements and expectations and whatnot, but I find the logic of: > They didn't get those 2.5 million new subscribers and actually lost 200k, so they're technically -2.7 million subscribers To be extremely questionable, if not outright incorrect. They didn’t lose something they didn’t have. 2.5m people didn’t leave, 200k did. Sure, they didn’t reach a target of 2.5m new use…

They didn't "lose" 2.7m subscribers. but they did miss their goal by 2.7m.

The important thing to note is that stock prices aren't tanking because of 200k. If they had gained 200k subscribers, the stock would have tanked still. and the headlines would have been "netflix misses subscriber goal by 2.3m" instead and only investors would care

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#896

Post by bushbaba »

accountofme wrote: post #860
zmmmmm wrote: post #775

All the handwringing over Netflix subscriber loss seems to be overlooking the fact that they raised their prices - significantly. Of course they could lose subscribers from doing that. But 200k subscribers out of 150 million? Combined with the end of the pandemic and sky high inflation meaning many people have less opportunity to watch and less money to spend. The fact they raised their prices something like 20% and…

Netflix has good points: best ui. Good library. Their bad points is what worries me for the service: poor quality of new content. I have not seen anything that wows me for quite some time at least for my preferences (SciFi). So maybe it is for Netflix (the sky falling) things that start as a trickle might end as a flood.

Funny as paramount+ has done a better job of adding new content than netflix these past few months. The Halo TV show and Picard while C to B- are still miles better than much of the newer netflix content.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#897

Post by phnofive »

brimble wrote: post #728
lostcolony wrote: post #673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost is part of the reasons those never really caught on, not just participation. The number of titles I (and I assume, most people) will watch enough to warrant paying $20 for is vanishingly small. Even $4 a rental is a hard bar to pass at this point with streaming competing. $1-2 to rent though? I'd be all over that. Weirdly, that's the cost to rent a physical disk at Redbox...but an on demand title anywhere is…

I would do a whole lot more digital rentals if the prices weren't so damn high. How is it that it can be significantly cheaper to rent the physical disk than to stream the movie once? How can I watch 20 hours of stuff on HBO in 4k for like $10 or $12 or whatever that runs now for a month, but a single 2-hour movie is $5? It'd also help a lot if I didn't need a different "app" for every store, with its own player UI.…

First Sale doctrine - you needn't pay any licensing fees to rent out a purchased disc. Practically speaking, Blockbuster that was did have special arrangements with the studios, but this paved the way for Netflix to rent out DVDs with little barrier to entry.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#898

Post by deepzn »

ripe wrote: post #662

It's sad that we cannot own titles but are forced to rent them from these streaming services that can't seem to get their shit together. (Not blaming Netflix per se; this is a pox on all their houses). Used to be nice in the DVD days. I built myself a nice collection then. This was the idea behind digital rights lockers: UltraViolet, which Disney refused to participate in and which closed down in 2019, and its succes…

For better or worse, half way through realizing it was stupid, I've bought myself a massive collection that I don't "own" on iTunes. Technically, it is tied to my Apple account, but there isn't a way to transfer ownership, or etc outside of Apple even for e.g.if I die.

I think though there will be some laws passed hopefully that will allow us to own digital content outright in the near future, hopefully in a decentralized way.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#899

Post by dumbfounder »

castwide wrote: post #876
accountofme wrote: post #860

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix has good points: best ui. Good library. Their bad points is what worries me for the service: poor quality of new content. I have not seen anything that wows me for quite some time at least for my preferences (SciFi). So maybe it is for Netflix (the sky falling) things that start as a trickle might end as a flood.

I feel like Netflix has been declining for years. A decade ago, their recommendation algorithm was phenomenal. Today, both their library and their recommendations are severely lacking. I'm not sure how much longer I'll bother to subscribe.

This is it for me. Maybe they have decent content but I can’t seem to find it easily anymore. Netflix was a necessity once upon a time, but now I am on the edge of canceling.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#900

Post by deepzn »

ilrwbwrkhv wrote: post #92

Honestly for me I just do not know all the content Netflix has because the browsing is so bad. I wish instead of pushing shows to me best on algorithms, it would just let me browse categories and recent additions etc in a simpler way. Maybe categorised by year.

This is true, there is a lot of (original, and other) content that you just can't find anymore because they only show the newest, and dumb stuff now.
Post reply on HN