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Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

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Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#21

Post by InclinedPlane »

recoiledsnake wrote: post #17
martythemaniak wrote: post #11

If we agree that eventually (within 15 years or so) all phones will be smartphones and that almost everyone on earth older than 10 will own one, you can see why I'm still bullish on RIM and MS. A relatively small number of companies (Apple, Google, RIM, MS) are fighting over a huge market which will grow from millions today to hundreds of millions to billions in time. Managing to capture or hold onto even 10% of that…

The problem with that thinking is that this has become a war of ecosystems from a battle of devices (to paraphrase Nokia's CEO). Only a few platforms can hold developer attention and if you're a 10% player in 2015, the developers might not care enough to make a version of an app for you. If the ecosystem is not there, the users aren't, too. The desktop market exploded in the 90s, but where were the incumbents in the…

In the first phase of modern smartphones the core applications were enough of a selling point: mail, browser, and maps. Now there are plenty of low-cost phones which do all 3 of those well enough they aren't a differentiator, so the decision point has switched to games, apps, and other features which has put more emphasis on the ecosystem.

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#22

Post by ChrisLTD »

charlesju wrote: post #9

No. They have a fundamentally broken model. They're trying to sell a product that is being given away for free by their competitor who has the lion share of the market. Windows Mobile OS needs to be a step function better than its competitors to justify the premium, and it just simply isn't that good. We have to remember that smart phones these days are not only the user experience of the OS, but also the apps. I act…

I know you're looking at this from the handset maker's point of view but I think it's equally applicable to the consumer. Exactly why should I chose a Windows Phone over an iPhone or Android phone? At this point, you can get Android phones and iPhones for free with a subsidy, so they can't compete on cost.

Windows Phone may be nice, hell it may be better than Android, but there is no "OMG that is so cool I have to have it" feature. Until Microsoft can find a way be not only better but different, they won't regain marketshare.

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#23

Post by InclinedPlane »

charlesju wrote: post #9

No. They have a fundamentally broken model. They're trying to sell a product that is being given away for free by their competitor who has the lion share of the market. Windows Mobile OS needs to be a step function better than its competitors to justify the premium, and it just simply isn't that good. We have to remember that smart phones these days are not only the user experience of the OS, but also the apps. I act…

It would seem like some sort of cosmic justice if MS failed to make a perhaps fundamentally superior product* successful due to the inability to fight against the network effect of competing platforms.

* Not that I'm saying it is.

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#24

Post by diminish »

rjd wrote: post #16
charlesju wrote: post #9

No. They have a fundamentally broken model. They're trying to sell a product that is being given away for free by their competitor who has the lion share of the market. Windows Mobile OS needs to be a step function better than its competitors to justify the premium, and it just simply isn't that good. We have to remember that smart phones these days are not only the user experience of the OS, but also the apps. I act…

Well I guess we have to see if Android is still a viable platform in 2-3 years time. Don't under estimate the power of patents. Also don't under estimate the power of the enterprise and company issued phones.

microsoft is weaker in mobile patents than any other platform player. they could be a victime quicker than android.

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#25

Post by joebadmo »

ChrisLTD wrote: post #20
joebadmo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that the problem doesn't seem to be quality so much as mindshare. Seems like the same thing that happened with the Zune. The product was compelling enough, but was ultimately too little, too late. Many Android phone interfaces look and act differently. As a programmer this can be a nightmare I've had a few Android phones, and I wouldn't call the differences drastic. I don't see how visual tweaks to the interf…

Playing devil's advocate here, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend any new Mac or any new iPhone to an average computer or phone user. Even Apple's lowest priced options are up to the task of all but the most demanding applications (state of the art 3D games, video editing, multi-track music processing, etc.).

So, you'd say, "Just grab any Mac in the Apple Store."? or any iPhone?

I just recently advised a friend very carefully on whether she should get a Macbook Air or a Macbook Pro. It was a tough decision with a lot of considerations.

There are now 3 iPhones available at different price points with substantial differences in speed and capability.

This really doesn't seem like a line of reasoning worth advocating.

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#26

Post by ebzlo »

barista wrote: post #5

Windows phone unfortunately has become the "Zune" of MP3 players. It was better than iPod, the software was killer. The Zune pass was more conveniet than clunky old itunes but nobody cared. The brand associated with it was not cool and hence a superior product died a premature death. As the article says, Windows phone is in the same boat. The interface is innovative and functional. The app library has most of the ess…

People want to express themselves with the device they use. Branding is extremely important. Even well after a few cycles of the iPhone, people held onto their Blackberries, because of what it meant to have one (even when people would consider their software miles behind everything else in the market).

Windows and RIM could easily come back into the game if they focused on the whole corporate-I-like-to-look-busier-than-I-am crowd, but instead, everybody's playing catch up with Apple in a demographic they no longer have much of a footing in.

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#27

Post by ChrisLTD »

barista wrote: post #5

Windows phone unfortunately has become the "Zune" of MP3 players. It was better than iPod, the software was killer. The Zune pass was more conveniet than clunky old itunes but nobody cared. The brand associated with it was not cool and hence a superior product died a premature death. As the article says, Windows phone is in the same boat. The interface is innovative and functional. The app library has most of the ess…

There is an element to the Microsoft brand which not only lacks "coolness" but is also actively "uncool". I'd trace this phenomenon back to the antitrust lawsuits and the overall craptastic experience of Windows prior to XP.

XBox was brilliant because it avoided associations with the uncool Microsoft and Windows brands. Sure you knew deep down it was a Microsoft product, but you never said to your friends "Come over and play Halo with me on my Microsoft Xbox". Wouldn't you feel almost apologetic about showing off your Windows Phone 7 Phone?

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#28

Post by ChrisLTD »

joebadmo wrote: post #25
ChrisLTD wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Playing devil's advocate here, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend any new Mac or any new iPhone to an average computer or phone user. Even Apple's lowest priced options are up to the task of all but the most demanding applications (state of the art 3D games, video editing, multi-track music processing, etc.).

So, you'd say, "Just grab any Mac in the Apple Store."? or any iPhone? I just recently advised a friend very carefully on whether she should get a Macbook Air or a Macbook Pro. It was a tough decision with a lot of considerations. There are now 3 iPhones available at different price points with substantial differences in speed and capability. This really doesn't seem like a line of reasoning worth advocating.

I guess I'm comparing it to what it was like in the early 2000s and 1990s. If someone asked me what computer they should get, I'd have to think about the quality of the manufacturer, the processor speed, the memory, the hard drive space and the type of removable storage (floppy, cd, dvd).

These days you can go into an Apple Store and buy the cheapest Mac Mini they make and know you'll walk out with a good computer. You simply can't buy a severely compromised Mac anymore. Computer hardware just isn't getting better at fast enough pace to worry about it.

I think we're reaching that point with phones as well. The 3GS may be a tougher sell, but I still have one and it's snappy with IOS5 and does everything I need it to do. There are very few reasons someone would "need" an iPhone 4 or 4S. The same can't be said for something like the iPhone 1 or 3G, those both became dog slow.

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#29

Post by curt »

Think there is room for one more player in the market. Think Amazon, Facebook, or a partnership between the two could really make a splash. Eventually when the HTML5 frameworks become more developed and there's more fluidity between the app stores, who knows how that will change the landscape. But I don't think Microsoft can move fast enough anymore to compete in the ever quickening marketplace.

Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?

#30

Post by bad_user »

woobar wrote: post #10
charlesju wrote: post #9

No. They have a fundamentally broken model. They're trying to sell a product that is being given away for free by their competitor who has the lion share of the market. Windows Mobile OS needs to be a step function better than its competitors to justify the premium, and it just simply isn't that good. We have to remember that smart phones these days are not only the user experience of the OS, but also the apps. I act…

Actually, that's not entirely accurate. Competitor's 'free' OS comes with 'patent fees' to MS. So if you are a HW manufacturer choosing between Android and WP7 you will pay either way. [1] http://www.gottabemobile.com/2011/05/27/htc-pays-5-per-andro... [2] http://fosspatents.blogspot.com/2011/09/samsung-takes-androi...

Patents are only a short term advantage and they know it - Google doesn't have lots of patents but they have cash and, surprise, they have gone shopping already.

Just wait until Google, Samsung, HTC, LG and maybe smaller players like Acer form a coalition and go after Microsoft - a company that is not a patent trol, that can be attacked and that will take a stock market hit in the case of failure.

What really works for Microsoft at this point is just plain old FUD, but that doesn't lasts long.

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