If we agree that eventually (within 15 years or so) all phones will be smartphones and that almost everyone on earth older than 10 will own one, you can see why I'm still bullish on RIM and MS. A relatively small number of companies (Apple, Google, RIM, MS) are fighting over a huge market which will grow from millions today to hundreds of millions to billions in time. Managing to capture or hold onto even 10% of that market will pay off handsomely.
Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
11–20 of 42 posts
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#12No. They have a fundamentally broken model. They're trying to sell a product that is being given away for free by their competitor who has the lion share of the market. Windows Mobile OS needs to be a step function better than its competitors to justify the premium, and it just simply isn't that good. We have to remember that smart phones these days are not only the user experience of the OS, but also the apps. I act…
Actually, that's not entirely accurate. Competitor's 'free' OS comes with 'patent fees' to MS. So if you are a HW manufacturer choosing between Android and WP7 you will pay either way. [1] http://www.gottabemobile.com/2011/05/27/htc-pays-5-per-andro... [2] http://fosspatents.blogspot.com/2011/09/samsung-takes-androi...
And the advantage of going with WP7 is that it keeps Apple and random patent trolls from coming after you since Microsoft indemnifies OEMs against software patents. Not to mention the estimated fees are only about $12 to $15 which weakens GPs argument that cost is a big factor.
The OEMs and carriers do lose the freedom to develop a UI skin (which delays updates) and load always-running and uninstallable junkware though which might count for something against WP7.
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#13Windows phone unfortunately has become the "Zune" of MP3 players. It was better than iPod, the software was killer. The Zune pass was more conveniet than clunky old itunes but nobody cared. The brand associated with it was not cool and hence a superior product died a premature death. As the article says, Windows phone is in the same boat. The interface is innovative and functional. The app library has most of the ess…
This is the thing I don't understand - my wife owns a Windows Phone, and it's a pretty great phone. It's fast, it has a decent selection of apps, it's quite pleasant to use. Yet, you look in the stores and it's completely marginalized.
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#14It's not just the quality of the platform. Look at PalmPre for why that's not the most important aspect. There are lots of complicated reasons why a platform becomes popular or not.
Also, there very much is an aspect of trust involved. Apple and google built up a lot of trust in different ways in providing excellent experiences to users. Apple with OS/X and the iPod. Google with gmail, search, maps, chrome, etc. When presented with the idea of an iPod phone or a google-apps phone a lot of people had enough trust to buy into it. As those platforms have matured that trust has only grown.
MS has the opposite problem. MS has built up distrust with its previous, clunky iterations of windows mobile, and it hasn't built up sufficient trust in its ability to even deliver reliably. The problems with the Kin, Zune, and Vista haven't helped.
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#15If we agree that eventually (within 15 years or so) all phones will be smartphones and that almost everyone on earth older than 10 will own one, you can see why I'm still bullish on RIM and MS. A relatively small number of companies (Apple, Google, RIM, MS) are fighting over a huge market which will grow from millions today to hundreds of millions to billions in time. Managing to capture or hold onto even 10% of that…
But if we learned anything from the desktop wars, we learned that one company can very realistically come to dominate large portions of the market. The opportunity for a monopoly definitely exists. Not that I want it, but it's eminently possible.
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#16No. They have a fundamentally broken model. They're trying to sell a product that is being given away for free by their competitor who has the lion share of the market. Windows Mobile OS needs to be a step function better than its competitors to justify the premium, and it just simply isn't that good. We have to remember that smart phones these days are not only the user experience of the OS, but also the apps. I act…
Well I guess we have to see if Android is still a viable platform in 2-3 years time. Don't under estimate the power of patents.
Also don't under estimate the power of the enterprise and company issued phones.
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#17If we agree that eventually (within 15 years or so) all phones will be smartphones and that almost everyone on earth older than 10 will own one, you can see why I'm still bullish on RIM and MS. A relatively small number of companies (Apple, Google, RIM, MS) are fighting over a huge market which will grow from millions today to hundreds of millions to billions in time. Managing to capture or hold onto even 10% of that…
The problem with that thinking is that this has become a war of ecosystems from a battle of devices (to paraphrase Nokia's CEO). Only a few platforms can hold developer attention and if you're a 10% player in 2015, the developers might not care enough to make a version of an app for you. If the ecosystem is not there, the users aren't, too. The desktop market exploded in the 90s, but where were the incumbents in the mid 80s like Amiga?
This lead to Palm/HP's exit from the mobile business inspite of having a nice product, the lack of ecosystem is quite damaging. This is the reason RIM is in trouble too. MS has a better shot with their developer tools, developer relations and perseverance(see XBox). Not to mention Android licensing fees and the Windows/Office/Server cashcows. They were able to get developers to write ~30,000 apps in less than a year for a nascent platform with zero users one year ago.
Nokia wasn't going anywhere with Symbian, wanted to get Meego going, but it wasn't ready fast enough on enough phones and wasn't confident on seeding yet another new ecosystem, so they took the drastic decision of ditching it and aligning with the WP ecosystem.
RIM is a one trick pony with nowhere to go, and the attempt to come out of the decline with the Playbook seems to have gone badly wrong. BBM works for only so long as a lock-in mechanism.
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#18If we agree that eventually (within 15 years or so) all phones will be smartphones and that almost everyone on earth older than 10 will own one, you can see why I'm still bullish on RIM and MS. A relatively small number of companies (Apple, Google, RIM, MS) are fighting over a huge market which will grow from millions today to hundreds of millions to billions in time. Managing to capture or hold onto even 10% of that…
Be careful not to fall into the same fallacious reasoning as plagued the original dot-com boom (and was partly responsible for the bust). No amount of marketshare comes for free. Whether it's 10%, 1%, or even 0.0001% of any market that business has to be earned.
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#19It appears that the software is well received but my question is where are the handsets? I am looking forward to seeing Nokia's offerings as the LG and HTC phones have not been very appealing.
Re: Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone?
#20As a person who recently switched from Android to a Windows Phone, I believe they can. The platform itself is fantastic. Once people start using the OS they fall in love with it. The problem is that most people don't even know that the OS exists. Most people I talk to think that it's Windows Mobile and that's very difficult to get the past. Now that I have had this phone for over a month, I must admit that I am not s…
I agree that the problem doesn't seem to be quality so much as mindshare. Seems like the same thing that happened with the Zune. The product was compelling enough, but was ultimately too little, too late. Many Android phone interfaces look and act differently. As a programmer this can be a nightmare I've had a few Android phones, and I wouldn't call the differences drastic. I don't see how visual tweaks to the interf…
Playing devil's advocate here, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend any new Mac or any new iPhone to an average computer or phone user. Even Apple's lowest priced options are up to the task of all but the most demanding applications (state of the art 3D games, video editing, multi-track music processing, etc.).