The entire TV/movie streaming industry is pushing the world back to a cable-like one, and that's already pushing people back to pirating. There are a lot of people who were content to pay for a couple services, but even without any sports, you can easily be paying for 3 streaming services for ~$60, just to get content that used to be on Netflix (plus whatever's been released since). Once you add one or two sports, you can be looking at prices above $100 per month.
The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
21–30 of 1001 posts
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#22Interesting analysis.
I find it interesting that so many people spend so much time watching tv in the first place. Growing up, I was one of those people but about a decade ago I lost interest in pretty much anything on television. There are certain shows that I will watch on occasion that get me hooked, but I usually struggle to find anything that is actually worth my time and end up just turning the tv off after surfing the streaming options for 10 minutes. It boggles my mind when I hear things like “golden age” of content. Sure there is a ton of content, but it’s all so vapid.
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#23> Instead of producing two mediocre shows and an algorithmically designed movie every single week
Thank you. The only reason I break my Netflix embargo (and log into my profile on a friends account) is so I know what some viral meme is about.
Nobody[1] talks about or remembers shows from there two weeks later.
[1] this is hyperbole validated by 200,000 - 2,000,000 others seeing the light
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#24* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the first with tech and prioritization, it does not mean they succeed in the long term after the field matures. I don't have high hopes for Slack in 5-10 years. Neither do I see Dropbox or Netflix justifying current valuations in the same time period. Since then NFLX: -40.90%, SP500: +51.14%, DBX: -10.08% * 2 yea…
What's the realistic Dropbox competitor, with partial file sync, selective sync, share links and the like? Have tried Google Drive, Mega.nz, iCloud, OneDrive, Jottacloud and others and none has really impressed.
Valuation is thinking about the [future profits]/[stock price] ratio.
No matter how good the company business and it's position in the market is (= future profits), it can be overvalued if the price is too high.
I think Dropbox seems like really nice product, but not at the valuation it had or has. It has no permanent competitive edge.
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#25Netflix is now a mature business that stopped growing. https://app.finclout.io/t/NBbmd0A
The graph in your link appears to show an operating profit of over $6 billion.
What has gone wrong with our world that making a 6 billion dollar a year profit is considered a problem?
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#26I get Netflix through my cell phone carrier, otherwise I would drop it. I don't watch a lot of content, and I find myself watching HBO Max more often when I do.
With that being said, I might still buy some $NFLX. I thought that they were dead once before with the whole Qwikster thing, but investing in the company then would have been a very smart move.
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
Netflix, at least compared to Dropbox, had the opportunity to transition to producing 1st party content which they could use to continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary. My gut instinct is that Netflix has failed to succeed on that front, but there was an attempt. Curious where on your crystal ball you see the likes of Spotify and the music (and podcast I guess) industry in 1…
> continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary. They did and they do. They put all their money into the 1st party content. They produce huge number of bulk mediocre content and also some really good shows. I can't see how they could do anything different. It's not enough. They have no competitive edge in 1st party content creation except size. That edge is in danger. The competit…
>some really good shows
That they almost always cancel after two seasons regardless of popularity or story progression. As a result, lots of people are wary of starting to watch anything new on Netflix since it's almost guaranteed to be cancelled prematurely.
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#28The entire TV/movie streaming industry is pushing the world back to a cable-like one, and that's already pushing people back to pirating. There are a lot of people who were content to pay for a couple services, but even without any sports, you can easily be paying for 3 streaming services for ~$60, just to get content that used to be on Netflix (plus whatever's been released since). Once you add one or two sports, yo…
Why not just have one streaming service at a time? Each has an absurd amount of content so just switch it up every few months. You get to watch everything and it’s super inexpensive.
Sports are trickier of course.
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#29Netflix is now a mature business that stopped growing. https://app.finclout.io/t/NBbmd0A
wow they make that much revenue? probably would buy this dip then. $30bn ARR trading at a $96bn marketcap/valuation and they’re profitable!? uhhh say less!
Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix
#30* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the first with tech and prioritization, it does not mean they succeed in the long term after the field matures. I don't have high hopes for Slack in 5-10 years. Neither do I see Dropbox or Netflix justifying current valuations in the same time period. Since then NFLX: -40.90%, SP500: +51.14%, DBX: -10.08% * 2 yea…
I agree re: Netflix and Dropbox. Salesforce acquired Slack though. The main issue with a thesis about Slack is that for some completely unknown to me reason, nobody has even attempted to make a competitor. Discord is the closest but using both I don’t think I could use Discord for work at all. It’s just off.
Teams and Mattermost are competitors