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The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

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Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#11

Post by dougmwne »

markdown wrote: post #4
polka_haunts_us wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix, at least compared to Dropbox, had the opportunity to transition to producing 1st party content which they could use to continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary. My gut instinct is that Netflix has failed to succeed on that front, but there was an attempt. Curious where on your crystal ball you see the likes of Spotify and the music (and podcast I guess) industry in 1…

> but there was an attempt. Unfortunately it was data-driven. This meant that if a new show didn't catch on within a season or two, it was cancelled. They've killed so many great shows chasing the lowest common denominator. The formula they settled on was: big name star in a generic designed-by-committee (or AI) show. Shame.

This is where Apple TV+ has been a breath of fresh air, like eating a garden fresh tomato after years of canned tomato paste.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#12

Post by nabla9 »

polka_haunts_us wrote: post #3
nabla9 wrote: post #2

* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the first with tech and prioritization, it does not mean they succeed in the long term after the field matures. I don't have high hopes for Slack in 5-10 years. Neither do I see Dropbox or Netflix justifying current valuations in the same time period. Since then NFLX: -40.90%, SP500: +51.14%, DBX: -10.08% * 2 yea…

Netflix, at least compared to Dropbox, had the opportunity to transition to producing 1st party content which they could use to continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary. My gut instinct is that Netflix has failed to succeed on that front, but there was an attempt. Curious where on your crystal ball you see the likes of Spotify and the music (and podcast I guess) industry in 1…

> continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary.

They did and they do. They put all their money into the 1st party content. They produce huge number of bulk mediocre content and also some really good shows. I can't see how they could do anything different. It's not enough. They have no competitive edge in 1st party content creation except size. That edge is in danger.

The competition has either deeper pockets, more content, or other income sources.

I have no idea about music streaming. I assume its similar network externalities, economies of size business.

---

edit:

As an infrequent investor, the company must do better than relevant index fund (SP500, NASDAQ composite, and so on) over the next 5-10 years to make sense to me. Netflix may establish itself as a good blue-chip company, but that's not enough a reason to buy it.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#13

Post by ericmay »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the first with tech and prioritization, it does not mean they succeed in the long term after the field matures. I don't have high hopes for Slack in 5-10 years. Neither do I see Dropbox or Netflix justifying current valuations in the same time period. Since then NFLX: -40.90%, SP500: +51.14%, DBX: -10.08% * 2 yea…

I agree re: Netflix and Dropbox. Salesforce acquired Slack though.

The main issue with a thesis about Slack is that for some completely unknown to me reason, nobody has even attempted to make a competitor. Discord is the closest but using both I don’t think I could use Discord for work at all. It’s just off.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#14

Post by joezydeco »

dgb23 wrote: post #6
nabla9 wrote: post #2

* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the first with tech and prioritization, it does not mean they succeed in the long term after the field matures. I don't have high hopes for Slack in 5-10 years. Neither do I see Dropbox or Netflix justifying current valuations in the same time period. Since then NFLX: -40.90%, SP500: +51.14%, DBX: -10.08% * 2 yea…

Very bad taste of Amazon to make a competing product to Netflix, which has to be one of their biggest clients.

Where have you been the last twenty years? This is their whole business model.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#15

Post by maxerickson »

ericmay wrote: post #13
nabla9 wrote: post #2

* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the first with tech and prioritization, it does not mean they succeed in the long term after the field matures. I don't have high hopes for Slack in 5-10 years. Neither do I see Dropbox or Netflix justifying current valuations in the same time period. Since then NFLX: -40.90%, SP500: +51.14%, DBX: -10.08% * 2 yea…

I agree re: Netflix and Dropbox. Salesforce acquired Slack though. The main issue with a thesis about Slack is that for some completely unknown to me reason, nobody has even attempted to make a competitor. Discord is the closest but using both I don’t think I could use Discord for work at all. It’s just off.

Is this a Teams joke?

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#16

Post by WaffleIronMaker »

maxerickson wrote: post #15
ericmay wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree re: Netflix and Dropbox. Salesforce acquired Slack though. The main issue with a thesis about Slack is that for some completely unknown to me reason, nobody has even attempted to make a competitor. Discord is the closest but using both I don’t think I could use Discord for work at all. It’s just off.

Is this a Teams joke?

No, Teams is a joke.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#18

Post by thedougd »

markdown wrote: post #4
polka_haunts_us wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix, at least compared to Dropbox, had the opportunity to transition to producing 1st party content which they could use to continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary. My gut instinct is that Netflix has failed to succeed on that front, but there was an attempt. Curious where on your crystal ball you see the likes of Spotify and the music (and podcast I guess) industry in 1…

> but there was an attempt. Unfortunately it was data-driven. This meant that if a new show didn't catch on within a season or two, it was cancelled. They've killed so many great shows chasing the lowest common denominator. The formula they settled on was: big name star in a generic designed-by-committee (or AI) show. Shame.

I think you're spot on about this. Oddly, Netflix has seen some success by reviving shows that were discontinued on major networks. You'd think they'd know better than to cancel shows like The OA before completion.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#19

Post by jon-wood »

markdown wrote: post #4
polka_haunts_us wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix, at least compared to Dropbox, had the opportunity to transition to producing 1st party content which they could use to continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary. My gut instinct is that Netflix has failed to succeed on that front, but there was an attempt. Curious where on your crystal ball you see the likes of Spotify and the music (and podcast I guess) industry in 1…

> but there was an attempt. Unfortunately it was data-driven. This meant that if a new show didn't catch on within a season or two, it was cancelled. They've killed so many great shows chasing the lowest common denominator. The formula they settled on was: big name star in a generic designed-by-committee (or AI) show. Shame.

I'm really disappointed that creators didn't catch on to this and design their shows to run for one or two seasons. Not everything needs to be a decade long odyssey, and in fact a great many TV shows that were great at first were IMO destroyed by trying to keep running for as long as possible, long past the point where they ran out of things to say.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#20

Post by usrn »

ericmay wrote: post #13
nabla9 wrote: post #2

* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the first with tech and prioritization, it does not mean they succeed in the long term after the field matures. I don't have high hopes for Slack in 5-10 years. Neither do I see Dropbox or Netflix justifying current valuations in the same time period. Since then NFLX: -40.90%, SP500: +51.14%, DBX: -10.08% * 2 yea…

I agree re: Netflix and Dropbox. Salesforce acquired Slack though. The main issue with a thesis about Slack is that for some completely unknown to me reason, nobody has even attempted to make a competitor. Discord is the closest but using both I don’t think I could use Discord for work at all. It’s just off.

XMPP still exists.
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