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California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

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Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would definitely work, but would require a big infra adjustment. I don’t know but I wonder if (and it seems likely that) the time arbitrage of electrons is better/simpler (and cheaper?) solved by batteries now or in a few years time.

What batteries ain't is cheap. Grid scale batteries so you can have a fixed price 24/7 will more than double your electricity bills. If they can be built at all, with their massive need for rare metals.

Sorry, I don't mean at home batteries.

I mean gird scale batteries at production sites to smooth fluctuations in supply, and virtual producers like Tesla in Texas that store power when its cheap and sell when it's expensive to smooth out fluctuations in demand.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#272
post #249
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't have a wildfire problem. There have been fires for thousands of years. There are supposed to be fires. Our problem is people build non-fireproof homes in forests and demand the government mismanage the forest by stopping fires.

Around 90% of wild fires are caused by humans. A few of the recent major fires (the Camp Fire being one of them) were caused by power lines. So there is definitely a major human-cause component here that can be addressed. I am all for more prescribed burns, but the people in opposition to those burns aren't the people living in the most at-risk areas.

Fires were intentionally set by humans for thousands of years. The forests evolved with them. There needs to be fire. The causes don't need to be "addressed".

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#273
post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't 'need the lights on.' I have lived in multiple third world countries where outages happen regularly if you have electricity at all. This is a failure of customers to adequately prepare and instead playing the victim because of their failures. People knew for years Texas grid was vulnerable, and it's an exquisite display of Darwin Award for those who didn't prepare for it. Only a moron doesn't keep some sort…

> You don't 'need the lights on.' Hospitals do. Street lights do. Network operators do. Just think back to the beginning of the pandemic and how many industries were suddenly discovered to be "essential". You're thinking from the perspective of "can I, personally, suffer a power outage in my own home[1]" and imaginging that "running a civilization" works like that. There are many entities who simply can't stop buying…

Hospitals are 60.1% of capacity? Hospitals have generators, also. Lets not make hypocritical statements about think harder.

>imaginging that "running a civilization" works like tha

And yet many rich civilizations do run just fine 'like that' and many may consider those civilizations just as good as yours. Your statement is simply ethnocentric arrogant elitism.

>Just think back to the beginning of the pandemic and how many industries were suddenly discovered to be "essential".

You're describing tyrants trying to shut down business. Being 'essential' was simply a chosen word of propaganda as part of a tyrannical process to destroy some people's line of work while favoring others. We are discussing free-market pricing and their interconnection with power disruptions and acts of god.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#274
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it is. Solar pays for itself in raw kWh over ~8 years, probably even better at utility scale which negotiates huge panel purchases. Batteries cost more, but can apply stored power when they can earn the most (during peak), reducing viability of polluting alternatives. The cherry on top is that all future energy uses no more material and creates no more pollution, with materials mostly all recyclable at end of li…

>Solar pays for itself in raw kWh over ~8 years AFAIK in this thread the calculation that gave the answer of 8 years also included the bonus that comes from the government subsidies. What is the number if we excluded that subsidy?

That is part of the cost analysis. Costs continue to fall, only rising recently due to macro materials costs. In a few years when the subsidy vanishes, the difference should be nearly made up for by reduced cost.

And this subsidy only applies to residential AFAICT, not grid-scale which is the main discussion. Grid scale tends to come in far cheaper

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What batteries ain't is cheap. Grid scale batteries so you can have a fixed price 24/7 will more than double your electricity bills. If they can be built at all, with their massive need for rare metals.

Sorry, I don't mean at home batteries. I mean gird scale batteries at production sites to smooth fluctuations in supply, and virtual producers like Tesla in Texas that store power when its cheap and sell when it's expensive to smooth out fluctuations in demand.

I specifically talked about grid scale batteries.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Renewables do make electricity cheaper. Here is a highly simplified version of how rates are set: Fixed price = (unit cost + a profit margin) * number of units The fixed price is set for a period of time based on historical and forecasted costs. Which costs are allowed and the profit margin for regulated utilities serving fixed price load is determined by the public service commissions. When their costs go down the r…

That formula denies how markets work, and gets us high priced electricity and rolling blackouts. Like it or not, supply of electricity with renewables is highly variable. Fixed price electric rates are simply incompatible with that. P.S. Back in the 70's when the DOE allocated gas and set prices, it was simply unable to react to varying gas supplies and demand. The result was gas lines for years until Reagan repealed…

This is in fact how regulated utilities work for fixed rate customers (simplified). The utility charges a customer a rate of x for some period. If the cost during that period is below x the utility may have to lower the price in the next period. If the cost is greater than x they may be able to raise the price in the next period. The exact mechanism for cost-recovery is state-specific and subject to a lot of considerations [0]. Utilities act as wholesale price buffers for retail customers (not commercial users) but the costs are eventually paid.

None of this denies how economics works or that solar and wind are variable.

[0] https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-1005742_1.pdf

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we can't make engineering calculations because black swan events throw all that out the window? That doesn't seem like a winning strategy. Power grids require serious engineering, not magical thinking, if they are to be economical and reliable. If windmills do not provide base load power, then what will? Something will, and that something will need to be built, and that something will cost money, and that somethin…

No, we can make engineering calculations, however those calculations don't support the strawman you're promoting. What happened in Texas was a direct and utterly predictable result of market policy that did not value resiliency vs spot price. Let's just pause to take into full scale the failure of the TX energy market during that emergency: gas turbine producers, facing the highest spot rates they will likely ever se…

> What happened in Texas was a direct and utterly predictable result of market policy that did not value resiliency vs spot price.

There's a lot to this notion that the state deliberately traded off reliability for lower wholesale prices attractive to large scale industrial consumers. It's not like it's unknown how to make a power system reliable in cold weather, but when it happens every ten or twenty years (1989, 2011, 2021), it can be difficult to justify the expense of that sort of preparation. Of course, the costs of this choice are dramatically socialized across the entire state in these extreme weather events. The refinery might get cheaper power, but part of the cost of that cheapness is borne by the homeowner who loses power due to a lack cold weather capacity in the grid, can't heat their home, and their pipes burst or worse.

But the issues in TX were not confined to just the electric part of the energy infrastructure - natgas supply failed also. Some of this was due to things like wellheads freezing (wells very often produce water in addition to hydrocarbons). Some of it was due to bureaucratic snafus. For environmental reasons, many of the natgas pipeline pumping stations have been switched from running on their own gas supply to electrical power. These pumping stations have the ability to request treatment as critical infrastructure for which the power should never be deliberately cut. To do this requires filing paperwork with the state that many or most did not. The consequence of this is that as the electric utilities shed load to keep the grid up, they often cut off their own fuel supply and made the problem worse.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That formula denies how markets work, and gets us high priced electricity and rolling blackouts. Like it or not, supply of electricity with renewables is highly variable. Fixed price electric rates are simply incompatible with that. P.S. Back in the 70's when the DOE allocated gas and set prices, it was simply unable to react to varying gas supplies and demand. The result was gas lines for years until Reagan repealed…

This is in fact how regulated utilities work for fixed rate customers (simplified). The utility charges a customer a rate of x for some period. If the cost during that period is below x the utility may have to lower the price in the next period. If the cost is greater than x they may be able to raise the price in the next period. The exact mechanism for cost-recovery is state-specific and subject to a lot of consider…

It denies economics because it does not shape demand during the day due to price signalling.

Re: California grid set record of 97% renewable power on April 3

#280
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was only 97% for a brief Sunday afternoon - not at night not even a major portion of the day

Oh how I wait for the days of using solar to heat my home during blizzard night... People posting these headlines make it seem like utopia.

Sorry - I'm talking about California - not everywhere. We in large part do not have blizzards.
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