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TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

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Re: TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

#161

Post by hahaxdxd123 »

duped wrote: post #86
rektide wrote: post #63

Morris Chang (founder of TSMC)'s speech a year ago touched on 3 huge advantages Taiwan uniquely has. Having a whole, well-knit-together country with such intense knowledge & specilaization in making chips is something that would be extremely hard to recreate anywhere else. A community of practitioners is key. https://interconnected.blog/morris-chang-global-semiconducto... The United States had extreme success growing…

The first two points are at best opinion and and worst nationalism, neither are facts.

What? I am reading the English translation and it seems based in truth to me.

1. The US of course has technical talent. However the vast majority would rather work in in the higher margin software industry, not hardware. If I am intelligent/hard-working enough in America to understand the physics behind semi-conductors, I would rather apply that to prop trading than Intel.

2. Manager-employee customs are vastly different across cultures. What is institutionalized in Japan is harassment in America. If he says Taiwan has a sufficiently different culture, I believe him.

Re: TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

#162

Post by mjevans »

55873445216111 wrote: post #141
hoseja wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obsolete? Automakers etc are huuuungry for old chips.

Yes but there is a huge technology gap. example: Automakers need a lot more small low-power MCUs built on ~130/90nm process. A 14nm fab that started 2 years ago is never going to be producing those 130/90nm MCUs. Furthermore, the semi toolmakers that produce the tools needed to build 130/90nm chips stopped making those tools years ago. This is a rabbit-hole that just keeps going. The problem isn't going away soon or…

Maybe three different 'bands' of production:

  * cutting / bleeding edge (as now)
  * 80/20 trailing edge (5 year LTS of cutting edge)
  * Cost focused 'lifetime' LTS
It seems like the cutting edge is built, and transitioned to the 80/20 already. It's that cost focused bulk components / entry level that lacks investment or even planning.

Maybe that's where some industry development and co-ordination from regulators could help establish a market that's healthy.

Re: TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

#163

Post by bilbo0s »

dragontamer wrote: post #135
bilbo0s wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bet against the US if you like, but it's a losing bet. Onshoring will happen. In the US. In China. in the EU. And likely in Russia too. This has become a national security issue, and at least in the US, we are resolved to make it happen.

Taiwan / TSMC are allies. The solution is rather simple: convince them to build a lab in Arizona. Lo and behold: TSMC is building a lab in Arizona. The debate is largely over. We're just dealing with the details / qualms right now. Culture clashes as Taiwanese business managers are learning that US workers have a different culture than they expected (and vice versa). Taiwan / TSMC doesn't like it, but they probably r…

This is not about fabs. This is about expertise. A TSMC fab in Arizona is nowhere close to being enough to satisfactorily address our security concerns with respect to critical infrastructure. We won't stop until we can stand up the entire supply chain using domestic intellectual capital. In fact, we aren't going to stop until that domestic intellectual capital not only exists, but is safely redundant.

None of the other nations will stop at a domestic fab either btw. This issue is not going away, and I suspect the EU is as determined to stand up a domestic supply chain as we are.

And don't even get me started on China. We can assume they are probably much further along than is generally known. Because they always are.

Re: TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

#164

Post by ajsnigrutin »

joenathanone wrote: post #77
hoseja wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why isn't it possible to do this industry at less than razor edge?

The lithography machines and factories are prohibitively expensive, it can take years of production to break even, if you over build you may just end up in the red. Additionally the fabs have a limited lifespan when they are cutting edge and able to produce premium chips.

Premium fabs, premium chips, and shortages of everything, from modern ("premium") graphics, to shitty DIP AVRs (relatively old tech). New fabs can still produce old chips when needed, and we need all of the chips now, and a bunch of the "new tech" chips, will still be needed in 20+ years, so that fab line can still operate then.

Re: TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

#165

Post by dirtyid »

LAC-Tech wrote: post #160
dirtyid wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> real aircraft carrier USN hasn't had the balls to sail carriers through the strait in 20+ years even under Mike Pompeo at the nadir of US/PRC relations since Nixon. Clinton sent 2 during last TW strait crisis for shits and giggles. Strait transits are down to DDGs and coast guard vessels now. PRC doesn't even need Navy to venture outside the first island chain to destroy East Asia semi, or conduct massive crippling…

Is it really "balls" to not sail an aircraft carrier? Last time it happened was during the Taiwan straight crisis where the PRC fired missiles - which a defector in the PRC told Taiwan had no warheads - deliberately near Taiwanese cities. Why respond with a crisis level military show of force when - thankfully - there's no crisis?

PRC also unofficially communicated missiles drama weeks ahead to TW, so there wasn't any "crisis" either, but US sent 2 carriers as show of force because it could, knowing PRC had no capabilities to counter. Force balance is different now, and for all the US hyping about increased PLAF flights into TW ADIZ or clipping median line last year, basically another crisis brewing, USN still only sent DDGs for strait transits because they can no longer risk using CSG as show of force.

Re: TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

#167

Post by tooltalk »

dragontamer wrote: post #135
bilbo0s wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bet against the US if you like, but it's a losing bet. Onshoring will happen. In the US. In China. in the EU. And likely in Russia too. This has become a national security issue, and at least in the US, we are resolved to make it happen.

Taiwan / TSMC are allies. The solution is rather simple: convince them to build a lab in Arizona. Lo and behold: TSMC is building a lab in Arizona. The debate is largely over. We're just dealing with the details / qualms right now. Culture clashes as Taiwanese business managers are learning that US workers have a different culture than they expected (and vice versa). Taiwan / TSMC doesn't like it, but they probably r…

They are not just "allies." The Taiwanese gov't had heavy handed intervention from its inception to what it is today. IMO, this has little to do with "culture" and more to do with the gov't protecting jobs and keeping their know-how and infrastructure in Taiwan.

Re: TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

#168

Post by stevenhuang »

lsllc wrote: post #100
rednerrus wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then shouldn't the government be involved in ensuring we have what's necessary? Seems like strategic reserves are in order here.

It's not unprecedented -- during the cold war, the US Air Force spent $279M (~$3B in today's money) on building some of the largest presses in the world specifically to enhance the capabilities around building complex and strong aircraft parts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Press_Program

Wow. Attached is a fascinating doc going through the specs and construction process of this feat https://web.archive.org/web/20120227025023/http://files.asme...

It has pictures!

Re: TSMC head says drive to onshore chip supply chain is 'unrealistic'

#169

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

gnulinux wrote: post #6

Well, of course, TSMC doesn't want chip supplies to be onshored. It's everyone other than TSMC and Taiwan willing to do so. West wants to have reliable access to chips without potential war with China. In addition to geopolitics, wouldn't overproduction of chips be beneficial to consumers in the form of cheaper chips and greater variety?

If chips are cheap then isn't it tougher to turn a profit building wildly expensive fabs?
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