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Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

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Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#91
post #60

They're losing subscribers, because of multiple reasons, most of which are their own fault: - Subscription prices keep rising, and they were already very high. - Libraries decreasing as they lose the licensing to other streaming services. - Originals are hit and miss, mostly miss, and get cancelled constantly after 1 season. - Crackdown on VPN and password sharing. - COVID lockdowns are mostly over in Europe, US and…

Add to that region locking. As a consumer, it's immensely frustrating that a global service needs to maintain geofencing to satisfy the bazillion content contracts. This is an artificial scarcity. Example: in the US, Better Call Saul season 1-5 is on NF. Season 6 is on NF in many countries, but NOT in the US -- presumably an embargo for AMC. Splitting series across platforms is such a shitty, anti-consumer maneuver.…

Region Locking isn't NF's fault. Different people own different seasons of shows, and some won't sell to NF.

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#92

They're losing subscribers, because of multiple reasons, most of which are their own fault: - Subscription prices keep rising, and they were already very high. - Libraries decreasing as they lose the licensing to other streaming services. - Originals are hit and miss, mostly miss, and get cancelled constantly after 1 season. - Crackdown on VPN and password sharing. - COVID lockdowns are mostly over in Europe, US and…

Would agree. Heck Netflix is one of the few services I still have, and that is mostly because I let others use it. They even removed Star Trek:TNG (while i was mid binge) last month. That was the first time actually using the service in a while.

> They even removed Star Trek:TNG (while i was mid binge) last month.

Why isn't this phrased as "Paramount pulled ST:TNG (mid binge) last month to drive people to Paramount+"

If you want NF to retain ST, advocate people don't sign up for Paramount+. If it fails, they'll go back to licensing their content to everyone.

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#93

Netflix streaming has such absolute garbage movie selection compared to Netflix DVD service, Amazon Prime Video, and Youtube. I don't understand why that is. With all their wealth they should be able to at least compete on movie selection with the other major streaming services. But instead they are many times worse.

Because the owners of those movies now have their own streaming services. Netflix can't stream what they don't own or are able to license. Amazon now owns MGM so that means over time the majority of MGM movies will only be on Prime.

What about FOX, Universal Studios, and all the other studios out there?

MGM is just one of many.

It also doesn't explain why YouTube has a magnificent movie selection compared to NetFlix streaming. If your theory was correct then Amazon would be the only one with a great selection, but it's not.

NetFlix's DVD service is also fantastic. It's just their streaming service which sucks.

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#94
post #64

They're losing subscribers, because of multiple reasons, most of which are their own fault: - Subscription prices keep rising, and they were already very high. - Libraries decreasing as they lose the licensing to other streaming services. - Originals are hit and miss, mostly miss, and get cancelled constantly after 1 season. - Crackdown on VPN and password sharing. - COVID lockdowns are mostly over in Europe, US and…

In this Q1, they lost 700k subscribers in Russia. Without that they would have had positive growth. From shareholder letter PDF: https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/2022/q1... > The suspension of our service in Russia and winding-down of all Russian paid memberships resulted in a -0.7m impact on paid net adds; excluding this impact, paid net additions totaled +0.5m.

Yes, but they forecast growth of 2.5m and analysts were expecting 2.7m - 3.0m, so 200k is still a big miss, albeit only a single data point at this stage.

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#95
post #80

For me, Netflix needs higher quality content. More creative risky shows like the OA, Altered Carbon, Love, Death & Robots, Black Mirror and more old HBO style content… quality vs factory cookie cutter produced stuff trying to satisfy the lowest common denominator, because then you will satisfy no one. Maybe they have good shows I just don't know about. Their recommendation system seems to be crap. I browse for 20 min…

>Basic only gives you SD quality, which I'm OK with but only allowing one device at a time is taking the p!ss. Really? There's only one of me but I've had 1080p+ TVs for something like 20 years now. SD is complete BS for any modern content.

Providing it's encoded well I can't see much difference between 576p and a source 1080p bluray, but I don't imagine Netflix SD is using anywhere near enough bitrate to be comparable to that.

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how many people on HN would be okay if the government forced open software to be licensed for use in a way that was contrary to the way that authors wanted? Would regulation also set prices for how much license holders can charge? Should the latest Marvel movie be licensed for the same amount as an indy film?

We're already having precedence for enforced FRAND licensing with patents relevant for standards (particularly in the telephony, networking and codec world). It should not be too hard to adapt these as regulations for the media world, especially when anti-trust regulations come into play - and given how much control Big Mouse has, it's time to do so. Alternatively, break up Big Mouse or force them to divest from cert…

The government doesn’t “force” patents to be under FRAND. Companies “voluntarily” put their patents under FRAND to be included in standards.

There are plenty of successful indy film houses that have better ROIs than Disney and get widespread circulation. The two that come to mind are Blumhouse and Tyler Perry.

This isn’t the 50s. There are plenty of more profitable ways to distribute movies than the theatre - streaming, distributing via VOD, etc.

My local theatre always has at least three non mainstream foreign language films.

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#97

I wouldn't be surprised if more people are starting to rotate between streaming services. All of my favorite content that used to be on Netflix is now split between several services (Netflix, Hulu, Peacock, Disney+). At one point I paid for all of them, but I found myself only having the time to use 1-2 per month. Some I wouldn't touch for months but was still paying for. Now I pay for 2 services/month, watch somethi…

Inevitably that will lead to cable style 24 month contracts.

Logically, yes. But I don't see that ever working again. At most they may offer "discounts" for people that lock into long term commitments (ie prepay for a year for small discount, like what many SaaS companies already do), but no consumer is ever going to put up with that type of contract again.

If they try it, I'm gone.

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#98
post #60

They're losing subscribers, because of multiple reasons, most of which are their own fault: - Subscription prices keep rising, and they were already very high. - Libraries decreasing as they lose the licensing to other streaming services. - Originals are hit and miss, mostly miss, and get cancelled constantly after 1 season. - Crackdown on VPN and password sharing. - COVID lockdowns are mostly over in Europe, US and…

Add to that region locking. As a consumer, it's immensely frustrating that a global service needs to maintain geofencing to satisfy the bazillion content contracts. This is an artificial scarcity. Example: in the US, Better Call Saul season 1-5 is on NF. Season 6 is on NF in many countries, but NOT in the US -- presumably an embargo for AMC. Splitting series across platforms is such a shitty, anti-consumer maneuver.…

> This is an artificial scarcity.

This is a foolish truism.

(1) Intellectual property creates an intentional natural monopoly over the rights to sell that good. That's the whole point of a copyright. Thus, by design, they can make it as scarce as they want.

(2) Since the good is digital, the good is, by definition, non-rival in economic terms (i.e. consumption by one consumer does not prevent simultaneous consumption by other consumers).

Thus, ALL digital intellectual property is "artificially scarce" unless it is made totally freely available on the internet.

However, the entire point of a copyright is to enable the content creator to get maximum value for their product (obviously subject to competition with other products).

This is handled through distribution deals AND price discrimination. If Netflix had to make ALL content available EVERYWHERE for the monthly SAME PRICE, then most of the world would suffer. By being able to charge different amounts for different content, they are actually resulting in less dead-weight loss compared to normal monopolistic pricing (which again, the copyright grants a monopoly).

> Splitting series across platforms is such a shitty, anti-consumer maneuver

You could analogize this to "not releasing a movie for streaming at the same time as it is released in theaters is such a shitty, anti-consumer behavior". You aren't wrong that is true, ceteris paribus (i.e. with other conditions remaining the same). BUT you are ignoring that producer revenue effects of this simultaneous release. If a movie cannot force customers who have the highest demand to go to the theater first and pay a premium and then release it for home streaming, they would make substantially less money. That would (and is) totally devastating the film industry (currently) as they cannot afford to produce a big blockbuster.

James Cameron summed this up well when reflecting on if the Avatar sequels (which were green-lit before the pandemic) will end up making any money: "The big issue is: Are we going to make any damn money?" Cameron says of his planned sequels. "Big, expensive films have got to make a lot of money. We're in a new world post-COVID, post-streaming. Maybe those [box office] numbers will never be seen again. Who knows? It's all a big roll of the dice."[1]

Similarly, TV distribution follows a model of first-run distribution paying the highest price for the exclusive rights within a certain market.

I totally get (and agree) that it is incredibly frustrating to have this kind of system. The problem is that, by design, these copyrights are monopolies. And if you don't enable some kind of price discrimination when you have a monopoly, then the incentive of the monopolist is to charge the HIGHEST price / most exclusionary set up so that they can get the maximum profit, at the expense of substantial dead-weight loss. Using things like the time-value of money to separate your customers into a cohort that doesn't want to wait and will pay and one that is willing to wait for the content to come to streaming months later is quite effective.

So my question to you if -- how would solve this otherwise given the monopolistic nature of copyrights AND ensure we don't have a substantial decrease in available content? This question deserves serious attention by the entertainment industry. The music industry basically had piracy annihilate artist revenue from record sales 20 years ago and then they settled on a system that seems great to customers (i.e. virtually all music is available on any single streaming service) however it has created a situation where artists make virtually no material income from streaming and make most of their income from live concerts. That seems like a bad outcome for the artist. Basically their monopolistic rights to their copyright were shattered by a standardized pricing scheme for streaming.

The difference -- music is extremely cheap to make and can be made by the band themselves at home. Sure, plenty of video content for things like tiktok or youtube can be done that way as well. But movies and higher production value TV shows absolutely cannot. They require several hundred people to be paid wages for specialized roles to make.

[1] https://ew.com/movies/james-cameron-teases-avatar-sequel/

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#99

They're losing subscribers, because of multiple reasons, most of which are their own fault: - Subscription prices keep rising, and they were already very high. - Libraries decreasing as they lose the licensing to other streaming services. - Originals are hit and miss, mostly miss, and get cancelled constantly after 1 season. - Crackdown on VPN and password sharing. - COVID lockdowns are mostly over in Europe, US and…

I think the biggest reason they are losing subscribers is they have reached near 100% market penetration.

(1) There are 75 million Netflix subscribers in the US and Canada [1] (2) Netflix alleges that 30 million subscribers in the US and Canada are sharing their accounts with another household* [2] (3) There are 133 million households in the US and Canada [3], [4]

Thus, if those 30 million shared US/CA accounts are added to the 75 million current subscribers, you reach 105 million. That is almost 80% of all households. It is unrealistic to go beyond 90% of households. Thus, they NEED to stop password sharing to prevent cannibalization within the US.

* A note: that sharing isn't always with ANOTHER household. It could be multiple members of the same household.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/250937/quarterly-number-... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/netflix-warns-password-shari... [3] https://www.google.com/search?q=number+of+households+in+us&o... [4] https://www.google.com/search?q=number+of+households+in+cana...

Re: Netflix hints at password sharing crackdown as subscribers fall

#100

Streaming companies just can’t help themselves. There’s Disney+, Netflix, HBO Max, Paramount+, Hulu, ESPN+, Apple TV+, Prime Video, and I think Peacock (for now?). The industry self-own is hilarious. It’s easier to just pirate or rent than deal with this many random services. And Netflix just keeps dumping out algorithmically generated focus grouped content. There is plenty of good content on Netflix but not enough t…

I'm not sure I understand how you think this is an "industry self-own", or why you find it hilarious. Presumably, these companies are taking this approach because they realized they stand to make more money by creating their own streaming service and leveraging their catalogs than outsourcing them. Those that stay in business are presumably making quite a lot of money. The only people getting "owned" here are consume…

>I'm not sure I understand how you think this is an "industry self-own", or why you find it hilarious.

It's hilarious because it's a retreat to the model we had before Netflix disrupted television with streaming. Now we're back to disparate channels and bundles.

And it's a self-own because consumers don't want this, and will take the path of least resistance. There is no reality where consumers will pay for a dozen streaming services. Pirating will pick up again and then someone will come along to try and consolidate or disrupt and the cycle will continue.

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