Live data from Hacker News

Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

latimes.com

51–60 of 67 posts

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#51
IMVHO any of those kind of infra is a big waste of resources. The cost of certain infrastructure is simply too high.

Now we probably all know the classic economic theory of density, that state cities are needed because people together innovate more, create economy of scale etc, unfortunately too many forget the second part of such theory: a certain amount of density is needed, being more dense just skyrocket costs and create so many issue to nullify any eventually remaining benefit.

High speed trains, and in general ANY big infrastructure fall in this very case, because density does not mean just big cities but also infrastructures to serve them. A big railroad, commercials one included like the Chinese project across central Asia to Europe, means serve a high density area from production of another density area. Too dense in both case to give benefits stronger than their downsides.

IMVHO while for a very big timeslice of human history classic cities was the best density on average, now the best density is a sparse Riviera where resident and production are intermixed and near enough, with just few punctual dense complex for certain production and services like big complex for automotive/aerospace/naval/defense, hospitals, campus, ... but the rest sparse enough to have anything reasonably near (lower transportation costs) but with room to evolve at a slow and continuous peace. Sure, we are many in the world and some countries simply do not have even enough land to afford such model, but we see how big cities fails and we see how dense area fails equally... It's about time to realize that a certain kind of economic development is not viable anymore and we need another one, with some aspects already known from the past and some others brand new.

Just take metro trains: they are the key to city mobility, the sole that work efficiently at a city scale. Super expensive and move gazillion of people per day... Well, most of them are from the tertiary sector, witch means that most of them can WFH without need such super-expensive transportation means, many others are workers affluent of the tertiary sectors so people who need another job if WFH spread. Only a small cohort remain benefiting from metro trains and for them due to the size there is no reason to have nor cities nor metro.

Change is always difficult and always makes errors and horrors. USA have tried to push car sails the suburb model and was a failure, but not because of the suburb, just because suburb are just residential and workspace are far away. Intermixing them and pushing WFH solve suburb issue, in theory. It does not in practice because suburb themselves are dense enough to have tough time reshuffling from purely residential to commercial and residential mixed. And that's why we need less dense design: because such design might or might not work today and might or might not change tomorrow, if there is enough physical space evolution is possible, if not costs skyrocket not much differently than actual cities or suburbs. Things change, being able to adapt is the key, and it's not a new buzzword like "resilience" is the classic Charles Darwin theory of Evolution: not the strongest, not the today's better but the more able to adapt will survive.

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#52
post #17

Are there many large infrastructure projects in America that actually turn out to be a waste of time? It seems like any large infrastructure project tends to get a whole load of pushback and political shenanigans (which often are the direct cause of spiralling costs), but in the end once it's built (if it's built) it's a massive benefit. Is the real lesson here just that we should all just shut up and get on with it?

I'm from EU, living in EU and... Can't really answer for USA but in EU all large infra projects have proven countless time big waste of resources, even the very few that for some reason prove to work a bit for a short period of time... I suppose that's happen equally around the world. Some, who shape things more for the today economy suffer more (like probably USA, or Germany) and those who plan a bit more for States interest suffer a bit less (like France) but in the end the outcome is not that different, only more or less visible to anyone.

In transportation terms the main issue is that you plan something that will be ready after many years, when it will be ready (if it ever will) things have changes and so the once theoretically good infra is now not needed/nor useful anymore...

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#53
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the 5 is not where the population is in the central valley.

I'm sorry, but why are we optimizing around the Central Valley population centers? When I voted for this high-speed rail (which I now regret), it was a bullet train between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Now it connects to neither.

over the past few decades the central valley has grown into a political power that can't be ignored (billions of dollars of agriculture). the path was a compromise, but also a huge mistake.

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#54

California (like most places) can clearly benefit from high quality rail infrastructure: - more pleasant commutes over greater distances - reduced housing market pressure near major offices - reduced noise and air pollution compared to motor vehicles (for the same carrying capacity) But how is it so expensive?

As a comparison, the latest French high-speed track that opened in 2016 was built for 5 billion euros (5.4 billion dollars) for 400 km. The Californian track being twice as long, how the heck did it end up costing ten (10!) times as much??

They spared no expense.

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#55

Alright that settles it I’m going to move to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe for half a year to cash out my QSBS stocks. California taxes are a tax on poor people, exclusively. California voters will just authorize a new bond issuance anyway.

You'll still pay California taxes. Getting around California taxes is VERY hard to do, and they will come after you if they think you left to avoid taxes. Even if you never return to the state.

This is why I won't even change planes in California if I can possibly avoid it.

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#56
post #17

Are there many large infrastructure projects in America that actually turn out to be a waste of time? It seems like any large infrastructure project tends to get a whole load of pushback and political shenanigans (which often are the direct cause of spiralling costs), but in the end once it's built (if it's built) it's a massive benefit. Is the real lesson here just that we should all just shut up and get on with it?

> in the end once it's built (if it's built) it's a massive benefit Like what?

BART.

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#57

Alright that settles it I’m going to move to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe for half a year to cash out my QSBS stocks. California taxes are a tax on poor people, exclusively. California voters will just authorize a new bond issuance anyway.

You'll still pay California taxes. Getting around California taxes is VERY hard to do, and they will come after you if they think you left to avoid taxes. Even if you never return to the state.

I can meet their safe harbors and actually leave, I only rent and already travel elsewhere more than 6 months (which is not enough on its own). So I would actually leave, get a new drivers license and register to vote in the other state (Nevada). I usually have enough deductions to get my AGI to zero or negative anyway (no tax). When it comes to QSBS liquidations though, I’m already good with the feds (no tax), only California uniquely would try to tax that separately.

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll still pay California taxes. Getting around California taxes is VERY hard to do, and they will come after you if they think you left to avoid taxes. Even if you never return to the state.

Under what circumstances can you leave California and not pay Californian tax?

You leave and never come back. Sell all property. Demonstrate clear intent to live elsewhere (e.g. buying property in other state.) leave nothing behind, not even a storage unit.

Oh, and you need to move to another state, not another country.

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry, but why are we optimizing around the Central Valley population centers? When I voted for this high-speed rail (which I now regret), it was a bullet train between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Now it connects to neither.

I haven't followed this for a while, but this map still seems to connect SF to LA: https://hsr.ca.gov/high-speed-rail-in-california/project-sec...

It was originally supposed to have a raised track to isolate the high-speed rail from jumpers and to avoid street crossings. That project was dropped. The segments in SF and LA will use commuter tracks (e.g. existing CalTrain) and run at a maximum of half the speed it obtains in the long Central Valley segments. Given the trouble that Caltrain has with clearing and keeping people and foreign objects off the tracks, I sincerely doubt that even that speed (110mi/h) could be achieved safely.

This is a faster-than-CalTrain-but-that's-not-saying-much rail connection from SF to the Central Valley, a bullet train down to Bakersfield, and then a similarly slow trek into LA.

Re: Costs of California’s troubled bullet train rise again, by estimated $5B

#60
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will connect to both. Big projects like this are typically built in stages and the central valley stage is being built first. The upgrades planned on the each end to support the rail aren't even done yet (e.g. LINK union station). There are a lot of people who live in the central valley already, and there is room for these regions to infill still.

For pieces in LA and SF it will use commuter tracks and not be a new alignment.

It seems something like that could always be multitracked or a new alignment built in the future. Putting a right of way through an established urban area is not as cheap as using existing commuter lines. For instance in LA if you look at where the metrolink goes it would be foolish not to use that right of way if the goal is to go to union station.
Post reply on HN