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The Uber Bubble

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291–300 of 556 posts

Re: The Uber Bubble

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not full story though - with incentives Uber cut is much smaller and in many cases drivers actually got more than the customer paid.

That's no longer the case. It was the situation at the beginning, but multiple cab folks have told me that incentives have really reduced in the last four years.

To be fair the last two years were not kind to ride sharing.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#292
post #282
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way you phrased your opposition made it sound like you think that shareholders care if a company has positive net income. However, the whole point of this discussion is that shareholders have no vested interest in the financials of the company in cases like Uber. There is really no correlation in these companies being more profitable and shareholder wealth. Generally the only money that goes to shareholders from…

>The way you phrased your opposition made it sound like you think that shareholders care if a company has positive net income. Technically that's true, in the sense that at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what their shares are worth, not how well the company is doing. However, the value that someone else is willing to pay for the shares can be expected to be based on how well the company is expecte…

I agree with your first point. I actually figured that we were in agreement here. I was just saying the phrasing of your comment is what triggered the clarifying questions, because I had the same clarifying questions when I first read your comment.

I would have agreed with you on your second statement back in the 90's in regard to companies being valued on their future profits mostly, but that's obviously not true anymore. I think Tesla is the most extreme example of this. You have a car company that has a 200+ p/e ratio and has an order of magnitude higher market cap then many of it competitors that sell more cars. I have heard it all about how they are an energy company or a battery company or a software company, but the reality is shareholders are gambling on Elon, and Tesla because it's popular. Tesla has proven no market that will grow their earnings 100x in the next 10 years that would warrant a risky technical based investment taking into account competitors. Honestly, it's the same as GE saying that in 10 years they will have a nuclear fusion reactor to pump their market cap by 10x putting them in line with Tesla, which is a more plausible scenarios than Tesla actually diminishing their P/E ratio through earnings growth in a meaningful way over that same period of time.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#293

When traveling in India, I foolishly took a cycle rickshaw. It was gross/shameful. A man far less fortunate than I was sweating, working hard, barely getting paid, and breathing horribly polluted New Delhi air while I just sat there. When Uber started to squeeze its drivers, I again felt just like this. I hated hearing drivers complain about their life problems. I hated doing the math and seeing how little these peop…

You think that taxi driver was being paid more fairly? Often they just drove for medallion owners and rented the time. The economics would have been at best same, if not worse since there was probably little oversight since it was a bunch of small cab operators.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#294
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with your points but let me give you some counterpoints: 1. Taxi services are balkanized; 2. Many tax services don't allow you to order a taxi ahead of time. You have to flag one down (eg NYC). For ordering a car, you need to otherwise deal with an (expensive) car service; 3. Uber made the payment process seamless and I cannot overstate how important this is as a user. I hate dealing with NYC yellow…

Many tax services don't allow you to order a taxi ahead of time. You have to flag one down (eg NYC). For ordering a car, you need to otherwise deal with an (expensive) car service First this is just inherently wrong. You’ve been able to call and schedule a cab, even in the burbs, since before the internet was a thing. Second there’s now services like Curb (in NYC) or Flywheel which allow you to use an Uber/Lyft style…

In San Francisco (due to what I hope was a uniquely bad system), calling and scheduling a cab was theoretically possible, but in practice unreliable and frustrating. Dispatchers had no way to locate an available cab in any reasonable time, and even cabs that agreed to pick up a call would often not arrive because (I was told) they would pick up hailed rides on the way to a pick-up. I missed many appointments when dispatchers took thirty minutes to tell me that there were no cabs available, or when an agreed cab never turned up.

I don't think this problem is true of every city, but Uber was clearly an improvement on the existing taxi system in San Francisco. (In fact for many years the main topic of conversation between me and cab-drivers was speculating on how the SF cab system could be improved, and we'd often end up inventing something like Uber, or now Curb. I'm pretty sure SF would not have got to a reasonable system without pressure from Uber and Lyft -- it took them many years to get to what we have now.)

Re: The Uber Bubble

#295
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're not turning a profit now Uber turned a profit in 2021Q2. [0] Twitter now has had many profitable quarters. [1] Of course, cumulatively, they are both money-losing, but I think the perception of these businesses as only having a 'plausibility' of making money is perhaps dated. [0] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UBER/uber-technolo... [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TWTR/twitter/net-i.…

"Turning a profit" has almost no meaning, particularly with mark-to-market investments in the mix. More concretely Uber's business has never generated positive cash flow (i.e. taken in more money in a given period than they spent in that same period) and are projecting they will reach that milestone for the first time in Q4 of this year.

A lot of movie productions infamously do not have positive cash flow. They deduct profits by creating artificial expenses charged by other companies providing services.

If they did have profits they’d get double taxed (once on the company’s profits and then again in payroll taxes if they decide to disburse profits to employees). They’d also have to pay out royalties on profits in some cases.

It’s usually pointless to look at reported profits from growth oriented startups, because if they reported income it means they are not properly reinvesting into growth (hiring engineers, bonuses for engineers, marketing, etc).

It’s much better to look at unit economics. Frankly, if cab companies made it work there’s no reason Uber cannot, and no reason the unit economics for Uber would be negative. It’s not as if Uber et al invented something new. They’ve basically improved almost every aspect of the taxi system it replaced, and done so with software technology so the marginal cost of the improvements is almost $0.

Just because the product is labor driven and low margin doesn’t mean it cannot be profitable. Amazon is a fundamentally low margin business as well (retail). The margins don’t matter so long as it can scale well, and software almost always does.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#296
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite all of the negatives, many of which I agree with, the legacy taxi industry really sucked for riders. Riding in a taxi feels dirty to me, to be honest. Old, ugly cars that never seem well maintained, having to actually call someone on a phone and tell them where to pick you up, often not accepting Apple Pay, Android Pay, credit cards. Rude drivers with no rating system to disincentivize it… It’s sad that Uber…

You forgot safety. I can’t recall how many times I’ve come close to an accident by Taxi drivers. Fuck them. These people are the most unsafe drivers on the road.

My experience has been the opposite, with Uber drivers displaying -- on average -- poorer driving skills than taxi drivers.

(Probably location-specific.)

Re: The Uber Bubble

#297
post #282
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way you phrased your opposition made it sound like you think that shareholders care if a company has positive net income. However, the whole point of this discussion is that shareholders have no vested interest in the financials of the company in cases like Uber. There is really no correlation in these companies being more profitable and shareholder wealth. Generally the only money that goes to shareholders from…

>The way you phrased your opposition made it sound like you think that shareholders care if a company has positive net income. Technically that's true, in the sense that at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what their shares are worth, not how well the company is doing. However, the value that someone else is willing to pay for the shares can be expected to be based on how well the company is expecte…

Actually GME is a perfect example of how the future profits expectations keeps stocks grounded in reality, otherwise GME would have kept going up. It was just a few gamblers that put it as high as it went, but ultimately forces brought it back down. Just like gravity, you cannot escape the fundamental forces grounding all objects.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#298
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you driven a cab before? Do you know for north america at least, the standard model is drivers are independent contractors and rent out the cars or the medallion license from medallion owners? Many medallion owners are not drivers themselves. Taxi companies are generally a collection of licenses, car rental, some branding and advertising and dispatch services. The angry taxi people you see protesting Uber or equ…

> Being a taxi driver SUCKS. At least Uber is an improvement I would be curious to hear stories of former cab drivers who chose to drive for Uber instead because they found it an improvement. I don't feel like I've heard any stories like that, but it must be a thing a lot of people have done if you are right it's an improvement, right? I feel like I've only heard stories of cab drivers complaining that Uber has destr…

Well, dealing with them was often sucky and in my experience if someone is sucky it means their life sucks.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#299

Do people actually claim Uber is a successful business? In the UK, none of the original companies that built the railroads still exist. Many of the railway companies were never particularly profitable and the railway boom was a stock market bubble. Lots of them were fraudulent or poorly run. Eventually they all either went out of business, or amalgamated and ultimately got nationalised. Nevertheless, they proved the…

If Uber can’t turn a profit then how did cab companies (essentially Uber but with a worse product, no software efficiencies, and bad UX) turn a profit for over a century?

Re: The Uber Bubble

#300
> Oracle founder Larry Ellison noted that Uber’s app was less sophisticated than something his cat could have developed.

That is the equivalent of "I could build that in a weekend" that you often hear from inexperienced devs that have no idea what they're talking about.

In fact, we had the perfect experiment in Austin, TX, where a couple years ago the city essentially voted to kick out Uber and Lyft (required fingerprinting of drivers) before the state legislature passed a law overruling the city. There were lots of competitors that flooded in to fill the vacuum. They ranged from "barely if even functional" to "OK". I was even a big fan of Ride Austin because it was a nonprofit, but I'm not going to pretend its apps were anywhere close to Uber and Lyft's.

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