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Collectibles are terrible investments

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Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#121

Post by lottin »

ipaddr wrote: post #70
throwaway09223 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the important difference is that on the whole, the stock market goes up. On the whole, the collectables market does not.

The collectable market keeps growing with new products and new prices everyday. Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer).

> Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer).

This is absolutely not true. If we pick a random item from the 1980s that was valuable at the time, the chances are it's worthless now.

Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#122

Post by kingcharles »

DennisP wrote: post #83
majormajor wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting your numbers? They don't match my recollection, or some articles I'm seeing: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-... "Bitcoin's price rose again on April 13, 2011, from $1 to a peak of $29.60 by June 7, 2011, a gain of 2,960% within three months. A sharp recession in cryptocurrency markets followed, and Bitcoin's price bottomed out at $2.05 by mid-November.4 The following…

You'd have to go a little further back. The first real price for BTC was in 2010, when someone paid 10,000 BTC for two pizzas, worth about 40 bucks. From that to the current price of $40K per BTC is a gain of ten million times. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#2010 Of course, you had to be a serious deep-in-the-weeds enthusiast to get in that early. Maybe that's the sort of people who tend to make mon…

I had plenty of coins in 2010 that I'd mined, the problem was that they were just a toy at the time and so when I lost the keys that same year, I didn't give a shit. Now of course I have regrets :)

Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#123

Post by koonsolo »

lalaland1125 wrote: post #116
koonsolo wrote: post #115

Beanie Babies seemed indeed like a terrible investment. Crypto on the other hand, outperformed everything else. Too bad a lot of you on HN missed out on this.

If you were early enough into Beany Babies, you did make quite a bit of profit

If you bought and sold at the right time, yes. That is more of a luck factor.

Bitcoin is still hitting new highs after 10 years.

Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#124

Post by tasuki »

raffraffraff wrote: post #118
Natsu wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you were looking for the next Beanie Baby for the last 20 years, do you think you would've found it? Even easier, if you just pick the right 6 numbers you could end up with millions of dollars.

Unfortunately this is why I've given up on investing anything more in stocks or crypto. Everything I invested since before COVID is down. My coinbase account currently has only 34% of the value I put into it 2 years ago, and I spread my investment over the top 5 hot currencies at that time (ethereum, cardano, algorand, sushi, bitcoin). My stock investments are doing better at 65% of what I invested (tech, engineering…

> investment [...] hot [...] at that time

I don't think "hot at a point in time" is a good way to choose investment. Perhaps exactly the opposite?

Edit: uhh, and the other things? I honestly think you were a little unlucky...

Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#125

Post by TedShiller »

aksss wrote: post #108
TedShiller wrote: post #69

Wrong. As always, it depends. If you’re buying $50 million paintings then none of this article applies

A $50 million painting isn’t considered a “collectible”, is it? I wonder where that boundary is. A part of a collection isn’t necessarily a collectible.

> A $50 million painting isn’t considered a “collectible”, is it?

It is if you're wealthy

Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#126

Post by hackernewds »

randerson wrote: post #92
neilv wrote: post #29

The math gets even worse when you consider the US tax rates for gains on collectibles. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/06171...

I've heard of people using art to reduce taxes. Something like: Get the art appraised (the higher the appraisal the better), and donate it to a museum or other 503(c)(3) to reduce your taxable income by the appraised value. If you have an actual willing buyer you'd still be better off selling it. But whereas stocks and bonds have an obvious value upon donating them, there's a lot more potential for generous appraisal…

art is also easy to smuggle in case one's entire country is hit with broad carpeted sanctions, and less likely to be burgled since it has to be sold in the primary markets. not to mention the whole arts appraisals circle is a farce, and driven with just the right bars of subjectivity.

Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#127

Post by hackernewds »

allturtles wrote: post #7

I find this argument very strange: > But it is, because in the long run, assets without cash flows cannot increase in value more than the economy as a whole. If something appreciates faster than the whole economy in the long run, it eventually eclipses the whole economy, which is impossible. No one is operating on an infinite time horizon in their investments, so this argument seems moot. You can certainly find colle…

what is the effective value of investing in Magic cards though? surely <<<1

Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#129

Post by DeathArrow »

majormajor wrote: post #8
allturtles wrote: post #7

I find this argument very strange: > But it is, because in the long run, assets without cash flows cannot increase in value more than the economy as a whole. If something appreciates faster than the whole economy in the long run, it eventually eclipses the whole economy, which is impossible. No one is operating on an infinite time horizon in their investments, so this argument seems moot. You can certainly find colle…

The article is arguing that you aren't likely to be able to pick the ones that will grow faster than the economy as a whole over the time frame you intend, because it relies on an extreme amount of right-place-right-time luck. If you were looking for the next Beanie Baby for the last 20 years, do you think you would've found it? I think it's also arguing that the particular appreciation you need to capture largely on…

>The article is arguing that you aren't likely to be able to pick the ones that will grow faster than the economy as a whole over the time frame you intend, because it relies on an extreme amount of right-place-right-time luck. If you were looking for the next Beanie Baby for the last 20 years, do you think you would've found it?

While that might be true for toys, it's not entirely true for art. Some old paintings of reasonable quality which aren't already sold at exorbitant prices will go up in price because of scarcity. After the buyers will decide they can't afford the best known ones and current favorites, their attention will switch to what can afford.

For modern art you have to find quality. Because at some point in time its value will rise.

So, it's possible to knowingly buy art which will appreciate, the only question is if it will beat the stock market.

As for that, if I'll buy something, I won't do it as an investment. I will be happy to not lose money.

Re: Collectibles are terrible investments

#130

Post by Gortal278 »

raffraffraff wrote: post #118
Natsu wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you were looking for the next Beanie Baby for the last 20 years, do you think you would've found it? Even easier, if you just pick the right 6 numbers you could end up with millions of dollars.

Unfortunately this is why I've given up on investing anything more in stocks or crypto. Everything I invested since before COVID is down. My coinbase account currently has only 34% of the value I put into it 2 years ago, and I spread my investment over the top 5 hot currencies at that time (ethereum, cardano, algorand, sushi, bitcoin). My stock investments are doing better at 65% of what I invested (tech, engineering…

> Unfortunately this is why I've given up on investing anything more in stocks or crypto. Everything I invested since before COVID is down. My coinbase account currently has only 34% of the value I put into it 2 years ago, and I spread my investment over the top 5 hot currencies at that time (ethereum, cardano, algorand, sushi, bitcoin).

You may want to reconsider investing in crypto too if you are down %65.

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