Live data from Hacker News

How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

navalgazing.net

101–110 of 221 posts

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#101

> For instance, priority targets in New York City are likely to include Bayonne/Port Elizabeth and Red Hook in Brooklyn instead of Manhattan, as Moscow cares more about New York as a place where armies can sail for Europe than as a place where investment bankers live. This person is delusional. The financial hub of the world is definitely a much higher value target than another port in an armageddon type scenario.

Also, according to the Nukemap website the author links to: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ you can hit everything from Philadelphia to New York with a single single Tsar bomba. With a bomb like that it hardly matters if you aim it at Port Elizabeth or Manhattan.

Tsar bomba is not in service in anyone's arsenal. It was a one-off test device built to see how big an explosion you could generate with a multi-stage thermonuclear reaction.

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#102

This essay is leaning very hard on the fact that there are 5% the number of warheads today as there were at the peak of the cold war. Nuclear weapons are exactly as destructive as we think; the sum total of the nuclear arsenal is far smaller than when many of us formed our impressions.

And the average yield is just 300-800 kt. A lot less than the megaton size bombs of the cold war.

Where did you get that number from?

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#103
I strongly encourage anyone who wants a taste of what nuclear war would look like to watch Threads[1].

Despite being the most terrifying depiction of nuclear war that I've ever seen, and it is probably overoptimistic.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, a general in charge of UK's nuclear strategic defense met with his Soviet counterpart and asked the latter what he thought of Threads and the latter laughed and said the entire UK was an overkill zone.

In the US you are either by major population areas (as most people are) and will probably be targeted by many weapons in the megaton range, and if you're in remote areas you're probably near some missile bases and will be wiped out too. Nuclear winter and fallout will get the rest.

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Srqyd8B9gE

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#104
post #19

It depends: Real-world nukes, or Hollywood nukes. If real-world nukes, play with Nukemap to get an idea. https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

The article mentions nukemap and says it targets the center of each city, whereas in real life infrastructure (of military significance) would be targeted. As far as I can tell that's the assumption on which the entire article rests.

Nukemap targets wherever you put the center. It's completely customizable.

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#105

There are some good points here mixed with some large assumptions. The good points: - Weapons fuzed for high-altitude air burst, which maximizes the damage area at the expense of not being able to kill hardened targets, are not going to produce dangerous fallout. - The typical warhead now is significantly smaller than the multi-megaton ones that were typical during the era of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The large assum…

"people who already knew how to farm without artificial fertilizers. Today we are nearly 8 billion and a much smaller fraction have any experience farming." As if it were an expensive and impractical proposition for more people to grow a little food. The reason fewer people engage in farming is that fewer people need to engage in it, and it is neither well-rewarded nor an intrinsically desirable activity for most peo…

1/3 acre of potatoes to feed a family of 4. You might also need a stock of whatever one uses to treat blight. A few chickens for eggs. Maybe let the farmers keep cows as they are good at it.

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#106
I don’t really see why people think this article promotes nuclear war. It does help to explain a lot of geopolitical events like why Russia feels insecure even with thousands of nukes. The fact is that things aren’t over after throwing your nukes. Your still need a strong conventional army to capture or defend territory.

For Russia to be a great power (and they want to be) they have to control the Central European plane to be fully secure. No, buffer states are not enough. They have to control the countries there either as puppet states or full annexation.

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#107
>I would expect things to stabilize at a technology level of maybe the late 19th/early 20th century and start back up.

That's not how technology works. You can't rewind things arbitrarily backwards any more than than you can wind them arbitrarily forwards. The technology required to recreate my grandfathers feed and fuel business simply doesn't not exist anymore. The horses that pulled the wagons no longer exist and would have to be bred up again. All the manufactured fittings no longer have factories and there is no one that knows how to design the machines.

If there is a slip it would be to the level of small manually run farms. Those that could not manage that particular technology would die. Which would be almost everyone.

It would make a lot more sense to recover as many machine tools as possible and then try to recreate the existing technology from the wreckage

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, according to the Nukemap website the author links to: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ you can hit everything from Philadelphia to New York with a single single Tsar bomba. With a bomb like that it hardly matters if you aim it at Port Elizabeth or Manhattan.

Tsar bomba is not in service in anyone's arsenal. It was a one-off test device built to see how big an explosion you could generate with a multi-stage thermonuclear reaction.

Not to mention it's not very effective since ICBMs rely on having many projectiles per missile to try and confuse any defensive technology. Tsar Bomba would very much be a Death Star like threat. Scary on paper, but concentrating too much force in a single place.

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#109
>Broadly speaking, we can expect nuclear weapons to be aimed at one of three types of targets: strategic (nuclear) targets, conventional military forces, and industrial/infrastructure targets.

This is assuming the person wielding the nukes is attempting to use them for normal military activity. However, nuclear weapons are generally wasteful for this purpose; regular missiles work just as well, cost less money, and do not poison the land you want to invade for weeks out. If you could use nukes in an ordinary military campaign, then all the nuclear disarmament over the last 30 years would not have happened.

The only thing nuclear weapons are really good at is killing lots of people really quickly. Thus, my current bet is that if Russia attempts to use their nukes, it will specifically be a last-ditch effort to kill as many pro-EU Ukranians as possible on their way out of the country. Their current actions are consistent with this; when their initial blitzkrieg failed, they proceeded to slaughtering as many civilians as they could.

I otherwise generally agree with the article's contention that nuclear war will not be a species-destroying event. It is, however, still something worth avoiding; because in an all-out war Russia will absolutely be going after population centers first and not militarily-valuable targets. Russia's goal is not to win the war. Their goal is to make Putin look tough and powerful while goading the west into making the mistake of counterattacking so we can bleed faster than they are.

Re: How destructive are nuclear weapons really?

#110
I would expect a large number will be duds.

There has been no testing for years, the nature of the device requires constant maintenance, the delivery systems (rockets) require even more maintenance…

And, then you have the issue of fraud… that is, suppliers, contractors, and quality-control guys fudging the numbers.

Post reply on HN