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Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

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Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#461

Post by Aeolun »

slibhb wrote: post #453
wwweston wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon is arguing that Twitter is mismanaged. Anyone who thinks this is manifestly true should read this take from an ex-CEO of Reddit: https://twitter.com/yishan/status/1514938507407421440 tl;dr: managing human interaction in any environment with limited accountability is a lot harder than it looks Also, there's the question of by what metrics one would argue it's mismanaged. Revenue and engagement trends? Profitabi…

I read it and am thoroughly unimpressed. > It is because at Certain Times, given Certain Circumstances, humans will Behave Badly when confronted with Certain Ideas, and if you are The Main Platform Where That Idea is Being Discussed, you cannot do NOTHING, because otherwise humans will continue behaving badly. To paraphrase: "Ideas are dangerous, people cannot be trusted to argue on the internet because it leads to v…

> I see people arguing that we have to dispense with our ideals because they are Too Dangerous. At some point you have to realize that these people are just cowards.

We don’t have to dispense with the ideal. But that’s what it is, an ideal. We have to remain pragmatic.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#462

Post by umeshunni »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #225
not2b wrote: post #184

Even before the poison pill was adopted, the evidence is the market wasn't taking Musk's offer seriously. That's because he was offering $54.20 per share (ha ha, 420), but the stock price never closed higher than $48.36. So almost $6/share was left on the table. Part of it is that Musk doesn't have $43B in cash, he'd have to raise it or borrow it. He's worth more than that but it isn't liquid; as an officer of Tesla…

>So almost $6/share was left on the table. This is only true if the there is no uncertainty. If you think the value without the takeover is $30, and it is trading at 48, and buyout is $54, that means the market thinks it 75% likely. downside -$18, upside +$6 = 75% likely

Interesting. As a point of comparison, when Microsoft bid a 62% premium for Yahoo back in '08, Yahoo stock spiked about 48%. Doing the math, the market placed the likelihood at 48÷62=77%.

In other words, the market is wildly optimistic.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#463

Post by Waterluvian »

toephu2 wrote: post #457

Wow, my prediction is Musk will walk away, Twitter stock price will tank, and Twitter will be flooded with thousands of shareholder lawsuits (for breaching their fiduciary duty).

Why will the price tank? None of this changes the value of Twitter if he walks away.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#464

Post by gitfan86 »

pm90 wrote: post #294
defen wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We are in a downturn affecting the entire tech industry, and it’s likely that prices will return to previous levels at some point. So why not take the offer (which is 20% higher than the current market price for the stock) and put the received cashed into other tech stocks? Is Twitter uniquely/excessively down compared to other tech stocks, and due for a bigger rebound?

Because Twitter is not a hedge fund.

Twitter wouldn't exist in this scenario from the stock holder's perspective. They would get cash and then put that cash into other investments of their choosing.

The only way this makes sense is if there is a bigger offer incoming OR if the Twitter board has a plan to make twitter much more successful in the near term and succeeds at that plan.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#465

Post by esperent »

Waterluvian wrote: post #463
toephu2 wrote: post #457

Wow, my prediction is Musk will walk away, Twitter stock price will tank, and Twitter will be flooded with thousands of shareholder lawsuits (for breaching their fiduciary duty).

Why will the price tank? None of this changes the value of Twitter if he walks away.

Stock prices are largely based on the emotional responses of humans, at least in the short term.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#466

Post by daenz »

Waterluvian wrote: post #463
toephu2 wrote: post #457

Wow, my prediction is Musk will walk away, Twitter stock price will tank, and Twitter will be flooded with thousands of shareholder lawsuits (for breaching their fiduciary duty).

Why will the price tank? None of this changes the value of Twitter if he walks away.

$TWTR has been trending down over the last year. When he bought, the price went up 27%, signaling that people thought his involvement would be positive for the company. If he says "twitter is hopeless" and pulls out, the sentiment will be that nothing can save twitter.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#467

Post by argiopetech »

avs733 wrote: post #422
legalcorrection wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Mockery" i.e. not censor people who say things you don't like.

It’s a completely ridiculous narrative to think that musk is interested in anyones free speech but his own. We should all be more aware of when the narratives billionaires pitch about themselves become perceived to be objective reality.

While I don't dispute that Elon is first in Elon's mind, I (perhaps in ignorance) have no reason to believe that he wouldn't take a principled stance and apply the standard he wants for himself to all. That's certainly what he's claimed.

I don't find the assertion that billionaires inherently lack integrity a compelling argument. In the spirit of honest inquiry, do you know of any reason specific to Elon that I should not take him at his word?

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#468

Post by roughly »

rosndo wrote: post #424
roughly wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An ETF isn’t going to “accidentally” exceed 15% ownership of Twitter. No, but an ETF has a defined investment strategy, and if enough money comes into the ETF, it could potentially trigger this.

Do you think big ETFs just buy shares willy nilly without any due diligence on company charters and bylaws?

I’m curious what happens in that case, then - let’s say hypothetically that SPY has enough cash come into the fund that they’ll cross that threshold if they follow their stated investment policy (“buy the S&P”) - what’s the move, then?

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#469

Post by oldmandutch »

jonas21 wrote: post #305
nickysielicki wrote: post #29

I don’t understand how any board can implement a “poison pill”, not just Twitter but Netflix and others, and not be found working against the interest of shareholders. Can anyone help me understand? You’re categorically changing the profile of the stock. This has a chilling effect on large investors, including but not limited just to Musk, right? Vanguard, for example, has just had its range of further investment lim…

As a Netflix shareholder at the time they adopted their poison pill, I feel like the subsequent ~40x increase in share price has been very much in my interest. :-) Of course hindsight is 20/20, but even at the time, it seemed like the company was prioritizing long-term growth, whereas if they were taken over by Carl Icahn, they'd certainly not be.

Netflix had a product to sell, not just a crowd.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#470

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tayo42 wrote: post #459
systemvoltage wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One can equally argue that opens sourcing Twitter algorithm and building trust would bring incalculable number of new users, have a profound impact on their ad business and not to mention, cut down their competitor's moat. People will flock to Twitter like bees. Ad revenue + subscription would skyrocket. So, it can go either way and can be argued either way.

> opens sourcing Twitter algorithm People need to stop saying this. It's nonsense. Or maybe keep saying it so we know your clueless about how anything works that your commenting on

> It's nonsense

Why? (Honest question.)

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