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The most popular chess streamer on Twitch

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Re: The most popular chess streamer on Twitch

#141

Post by oldstrangers »

joshuamorton wrote: post #122
tibbar wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As sibling comment says, he's higher than Duda + Radjabov in live ratings now. It's just not obvious to me that any of your statements about the other players being so much stronger than Hikaru are true. It's really hard to objectively estimate his classical playing strength because he just didn't play for two years and the rating has been volatile since he started playing again, but (for example) he played 4 classic…

My argument would be something like: Aronian was the strongest player Hikaru played (and was the highest rated player in both Grand Prix events Hikaru participated in). Depending on how you determine things, either 3 or 5 of the participants are rated higher than Aronian is/was in classical, and Naka won't be able to rely on winning the rapid against any of Ian, Duda, Alireza, Ding, Rapport or even Caruana, because t…

"Naka won't be able to rely on winning the rapid against any of Ian, Duda, Alireza, Ding, Rapport or even Caruana,"

Remember way back in 2021 when Hikaru won the St. Louis Rapid and Blitz? Going undefeated in the entire event ahead of Caruana, Rapport, So, Mamedyarov...

Furthermore, Hikaru has always outplayed Nepo. His lifetime record against him including rapid/blitz is 19 to 12, with 29 draws.

Hikaru also drastically out performs Duda: 26 to 9, with 17 draws.

Re: The most popular chess streamer on Twitch

#142

Post by tibbar »

joshuamorton wrote: post #122
tibbar wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As sibling comment says, he's higher than Duda + Radjabov in live ratings now. It's just not obvious to me that any of your statements about the other players being so much stronger than Hikaru are true. It's really hard to objectively estimate his classical playing strength because he just didn't play for two years and the rating has been volatile since he started playing again, but (for example) he played 4 classic…

My argument would be something like: Aronian was the strongest player Hikaru played (and was the highest rated player in both Grand Prix events Hikaru participated in). Depending on how you determine things, either 3 or 5 of the participants are rated higher than Aronian is/was in classical, and Naka won't be able to rely on winning the rapid against any of Ian, Duda, Alireza, Ding, Rapport or even Caruana, because t…

So, obviously Hikaru is rated lower than most of the players in the candidates, even with the recent surge. It's equally obvious that he's a much stronger player than he was going into his semi-retirement a few years ago. The question is, given his recent 2800+ tournament performance ratings and dominance in all time controls that he's played over the last year, is his actual playing strength back at the 2800+, world #2 level it used to be? It's entirely plausible based on what we see, and lots of chess people think that he, indeed, as strong of a player as he looks. That would make him competitive in the candidates (though, that is a total crapshoot, and no one is a "favorite" to win.)

Re: The most popular chess streamer on Twitch

#143

Post by pedrosorio »

ChrisLomont wrote: post #138
oldstrangers wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Hikaru was solidly middle of the pack in the Grand Prix..." after winning the first Grand Prix in Berlin ... And assuring himself a place in the candidates tournament before the final Grand Prix had even finished? I point out that its odd the number of people going out of their way to discredit Hikaru, so a bunch more people follow up by doubling down on discrediting Hikaru. Anyways, if you're familiar with what mak…

>you understand why Hikaru has as good a chance as anyone Then his rating would be higher.

Unclear when we are talking about someone who has played 10 classical games in the last 2.5 years with a performance clearly above his rating in the only competition he was in (last month).

Re: The most popular chess streamer on Twitch

#144

Post by ChrisLomont »

pedrosorio wrote: post #143
ChrisLomont wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>you understand why Hikaru has as good a chance as anyone Then his rating would be higher.

Unclear when we are talking about someone who has played 10 classical games in the last 2.5 years with a performance clearly above his rating in the only competition he was in (last month).

>a performance clearly above his rating

His live rating takes his performance into account. And it's more likely that the high performance was luck, since every player has good and bad streaks around their rating. A few wins does not magically make one a solid 2800 player.

As such, since Nak's current rating fully accounts for his last performance, and even with that (which even he says was simply good luck, not some fundamental new mastery of chess), Nak is currently live rated at 6th of 8 candidates (assuming Ding is the last one, which seems likely)).

So, given that it's more likely for a player to have random ups and downs (as borne out by millions of games of chess evidence across all players, including Nak), Naks performance last month is most likely above his rating.

You can argue all you want about what you feel. The ratings are a much more solid prediction of performance than all the good feelings in the world, especially since most of the Candidates have performed at the current level of ratings for years and years and years, including Nak.

Re: The most popular chess streamer on Twitch

#145

Post by alisonkisk »

oldstrangers wrote: post #39
birken wrote: post #36

For all of those getting excited about Hikaru in the candidates, keep in mind the 3 strongest players in the world who aren't Magnus didn't play in the FIDE Grand Prix for various reasons: Alireza Firouzja (already qualified), Ding Liren (weird travel restrictions) and Fabi (already qualified). At least two of them and likely all 3 are going to be in the candidates, so this is just going to be an entirely different l…

It's so weird to see so many people online going out of their way to explain why Hikaru won't do well. The eagerness to discredit him is just perplexing. He's earned the recognition already, he's a former #2 in the world and one of only a handful of players to ever have an ELO over 2800. Just enjoy his resurgence and see where it takes him.

No post body was provided.

Re: The most popular chess streamer on Twitch

#146

Post by alisonkisk »

ChrisLomont wrote: post #144
pedrosorio wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unclear when we are talking about someone who has played 10 classical games in the last 2.5 years with a performance clearly above his rating in the only competition he was in (last month).

>a performance clearly above his rating His live rating takes his performance into account. And it's more likely that the high performance was luck, since every player has good and bad streaks around their rating. A few wins does not magically make one a solid 2800 player. As such, since Nak's current rating fully accounts for his last performance, and even with that (which even he says was simply good luck, not some…

No post body was provided.

Re: The most popular chess streamer on Twitch

#147

Post by V-2 »

Kiro wrote: post #114
V-2 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do they? Not necessarily. That's quite a generalisation. I get the humour, it's just not my cup of tea.

What I mean is that it's wrong to compare Hikaru to other chess channels. I don't watch him to get better at chess and I wouldn't be surprised if most viewers have no actual interest in chess. If they are it definitely makes sense to check out the channels in this thread but for me, as a casual Hikaru viewer, they are something else.

Well, I think there are quite a few popular chess channels that people watch without actually thinking it's going to improve their chess level. (It's actually typical of watching sports). Eg. Botez sisters (who aren't even particularly strong players, objectively), Eric Hansen, pretty much all the "banter blitz" series etc.

"I wouldn't be surprised if most viewers have no actual interest in chess"

Now I admit that this would surprise me. I might expect that of some viewers, but not the majority. Not sure if there's any way of actually verifying this though

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