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If they're available at anything near MSRP I'd be interested. I've been using the same GPU since 2015. I've been interested in upgrading for several years now, but prices have been consistently insane all that time.
what MSRP?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the track record for Metaculus (the chart at the end) showing historically a 10% swing in predictions of 50% historically by aggregated forecasters on the site: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ Granted this tells us nothing about the accuracy of any one particular question, but on aggregate Metaculus is pretty well calibrated. That said, there is a longstanding academic debate between "foreca…
>Granted this tells us nothing about the accuracy of any one particular question I think this is where my skepticism comes from. Just because one can make certain predictions with reasonable accuracy (e.g. Scott Morrison will lose the upcoming Australian election, Joe Biden will die in office, Elon Musk will be the richest man in the world by 2030), it says nothing about their ability to predict other questions with…
Even if we were to fix this particular bucketing issue with a large enough dataset of foreign policy predictions X months into the future... one could still say this tells us nothing about this specific question because... maybe even among the geopolitical questions, this question is somehow different in some way which makes it noncomparable.
Or by analogy it would be like we were flipping what we think are coins and someone snuck a dice roll on one of the tries. Maybe the Taiwan question is the dice roll and therefore not subject to comparison with other geopolitical questions X years out.
This is of course afaik an unknowable problem, and Taleb would agree that we should just assume these predictions are tea-leaves.
At the same time it may be a valuable source of info (certainly imo more empirical than pundits and the news)
For consideration:
https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2022-03-26/is-it-pos...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you're reading a tech news coming out of China, and aren't thinking about politics, you're doing something wrong. Every tech company in China is in part owned or supported by the chinese government. Hard to talk about "independent tech". They're more like "national tech". Today and the next 50 years in tech is being defined by the competition between the two superpowers. Their national objectives differ vastly. Ch…
>Every tech company in China is in part owned or supported by the chinese government. So it’s exactly like the US. >China: aiming to invade Taiwan China hasn’t invaded anyone for decades. US had.
> So it’s exactly like the US.
Here's a bit of news for you. "China’s Global 500 companies are bigger than ever—and mostly state-owned" - Fortune https://fortune.com/2015/07/22/china-global-500-government-o...
Here's top 500 companies in USA. Do you know how many of them are state owned? I think that number is zero. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies
Are chinese tech companies really state owned? Well they're mostly funded by the government based on this news article (venture capital), so they're at least in part state owned. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/in-china-tech-is...
"An executive at a Chinese search engine recently summed up the new dynamic: We're entering an era in which we'll be fused together. It might be that there will be a request to establish a Party committee within your company, or that you should let state investors take a stake, you know, as a form of mixed ownership. If you think clearly about this, you really can resonate together with the state."
Us government spending and support compared to these effort is miniscule. Yes, they have some green energy initiatives (e.g. Tesla, Solar City benefited from those). But in the big scheme of things, us public investment in tech is about zero.
Learn some capitalism, my friend :) Remember Chinese (state owned and controlled) capitalism isn't what we call capitalism around here. Chinese capitalism is a bit like "chinese democracy". Not quite the real thing :)
>> China: aiming to invade Taiwan
> China hasn’t invaded anyone for decades. US had.
Not every invasion is wrong. The world needs a police, otherwise bad guys create chaos. China? They think Taiwan belongs to them. Which is crazy if you ask 26M Taiwanese.