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Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

121–130 of 480 posts

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#121
Gas and nuclear have one very important difference: Gas is among the technologies that allow adjusting generation the fastest, nuclear is the slowest.

To mix it with renewables, you need at least some reasonably fast capacity. How much of the gas generation capacity is baseload capacity that could be replaced with nuclear?

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#122

a) Because it's no longer technically feasible not to shut these plants down. b) Because it's not politically tenable. c) Because nuclear energy has long since been a minor part of electricity generation, and it wouldn't make much of a difference now. d) Because it has nothing to do with imports of Russian gas and oil, which is overwhelmingly used for heating, fuel, and industrial purposes. Gas (not just from Russia)…

> Because mining nuclear materials is an ecological disaster. Also, guess who's a big exporter of uranium in Europe? Russia.

Cameco could easily restart Rabbit Lake and McArthur River. Supply is no issue. Claiming that mining uranium is an "ecological disaster" is disingenuous. It's not excessively dangerous relative to other mining operations.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#123
Here [1] is an interview with the German president of the BASE (Bundesamts für die Sicherheit der nuklearen Entsorgung) essentially the nuclear safety administration. He essentially calls the arguments about extending the nuclear powerplants difficult to comprehend. He lays out quite clearly why it doesn't work, and while the article addresses some of those points it does not back up any of the assertions with evidence.

I am also quite doubtful about someone asserting we could just use nuclear powerplants for substituting gas peakers, that's not how things work.

[1] https://www.heise.de/news/Atomkraft-Befuerworter-fuer-BASE-P...

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#124
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> require quite a lot of conditions that simply are not met by many older buildings. Such as?

The technology is improving by leaps and bounds: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/07/new-heat... My parents in France ditched their 40 year old gas furnace for a heat pump, more than 50% subsidized by the French government, and they couldn’t be happier.

Where in France?

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#125
post #56

What I read in this article is that German government did a thorough analysis, but the author dismisses the conclusions of it because the tolerated risk level there is too low and because it’s done by a minister from the Greens party. If this was written by an expert, that could make some sense, but it is not. Nuclear plant is not a startup, where you can just skip the QA part to release faster or put a not working c…

You're repeating some of the excuses the article addresses. - The author says they studied nuclear in grad school, and are probably therefore an expert. - They quantify the additional risk of meltdown due to delaying new safety regulations. It's negligible compared to operating plants according to the new regulations. - Their proposal would increase Germany's stockpile of nuclear waste by 3%, which is surely within e…

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Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#126
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the biggest ask the article is making in an unreasonable way is to somehow find millions of contractors who can actually go home by home and refit the heating systems in a timescale that'd actually be relevant for the war in ukraine. If Germany wanted to switch everyone over to a different kind of lightbulb they'd need to ensure the production capacity to make the new bulb exists and set up logistics to actua…

This was a great answer and well thought out! Thanks for taking the time. My only rebuttal is heat pumps can heat the air directly. No need for a radiator or plumbing.

Germany basically didn't have central air heating. There is no way to deliver that to each room in a simple retrofit.

You can't even do widow AC style units.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The temperature you achieve is lower than for older gas heating equipment, so your radiators are likely not dimensioned correctly if you switch. You really want floor heating for heat pumps, and very well insulated walls. The moment the heat pumps can't provide enough heating you have to heat with electricity, and that is incredibly expensive especially in Germany.

Modern heat pumps work well below freezing, in Chicago 2021 there were 4 days that gas heating would be more efficient. Maybe don't use a radiator? American heat pumps hear air directly.

> Maybe don't use a radiator?

And how do you do this in a building never designed for this king of system?

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They quantify the additional risk of meltdown due to delaying new safety regulations. It's negligible compared to operating plants according to the new regulations. First of all, that estimate was not made by an expert, as other commenters pointed out. Second, the additional risk is created not because of new safety standards, but also from all other factors where deviation from standard procedures could accelerate…

> This risk is hard to quantify, it can materialize in unexpected ways (just like nobody expected Chernobyl or Fukushima) and it will cost such rich and densely populated country as Germany trillions. You know everyone who died from Fukushima died from the evacuation not radiation, right? You know more people are killed in Germany every year from coal pollution than have died as a result of Chernobyl in total?

So what if they died of the evacuation, the nuclear accident caused the evacuation. I find this argument mind-boggling, because people didn't die directly of radiation exposure it is somehow ok that Japan had to evacuate a significant population? If this would happen e.g. to Krümmel you'd have to evacuate the second largest city in Germany, that's 2 million people.

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#129
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author is misrepresenting or misunderstanding the nuclear waste argument in the report. The report says that you have to consider the costs of storing the waste if you want to run the reactors longer than planned, that's it. And we have not solved the storage at all in Germany, there is no plan yet on where to put long-term storage for nuclear waste. This is certainly a solvable problem, but the fact that it has…

There's nothing really to solve. Dry-cask storage can be used long term. The waste is secure, easily monitored, and if at some point in the future reprocessing makes economic sense that can be done too.

You say that with great confidence, can you give any examples where people have securely stored highly dangerous things for 100s or 1000s of years?

Re: Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open

#130

Gas and nuclear have one very important difference: Gas is among the technologies that allow adjusting generation the fastest, nuclear is the slowest. To mix it with renewables, you need at least some reasonably fast capacity. How much of the gas generation capacity is baseload capacity that could be replaced with nuclear?

Nuclear is not suited for peaker plants. It probably never will be. The fuel is a small part of the cost of a nuclear plant. This is why battery tech is key to energy transition. If lithium-sulfur batteries can be produced at scale, we won't have as much of an issue with the intermittent nature of solar and wind.
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