741–750 of 1001 posts
So Twitter was at $70 per share a year ago. So what? Jack Dorsey was CEO a year ago, too. The share price was $33 less than a month ago. But, despite an absolutely incredible roller-coaster news cycle, things have been definitely trending down at Twitter ($33/share last month), which was reflected in its share price. The current executive team (and Dorsey) had wasted time focusing on things that didn't matter instead…
Let's ignore personality and societal issues for a moment and look at the value proposition. The 'best and final offer' of $54.20 per share is just too low to be acceptable for major investors. Just over year ago, Twitter shares traded at about $70 per share. Musk's offer is about 25% lower than last years peak. There's no reason to assume Twitter shares can't reach the same levels ever again, nothing much has change…
Let's ignore personality and societal issues for a moment and look at the value proposition. The 'best and final offer' of $54.20 per share is just too low to be acceptable for major investors. Just over year ago, Twitter shares traded at about $70 per share. Musk's offer is about 25% lower than last years peak. There's no reason to assume Twitter shares can't reach the same levels ever again, nothing much has change…
Goldman Sachs, which advises twitter, has a target price at $30
So Twitter was at $70 per share a year ago. So what? Jack Dorsey was CEO a year ago, too. The share price was $33 less than a month ago. But, despite an absolutely incredible roller-coaster news cycle, things have been definitely trending down at Twitter ($33/share last month), which was reflected in its share price. The current executive team (and Dorsey) had wasted time focusing on things that didn't matter instead…
Everyone currently holding $TWTR believes that the true value is greater than the current price. To make a successful hostile bid, you need to pay not just "more than the current price", but "more than the holders of 50% of current shares believe the company to be worth". Usually bidders use analyst price targets to guess at the distribution of holders' internal price targets. This is what makes it so difficult, and…
If the shareholders are rational and believe the true value is greater than current price, why aren't people buying until it asymptotically approaches that price?
Optimism and hopes for future gains aren't priced in because they are fantasy and not yet material.
If I was an investor in Tesla or SpaceX I'd be extremely opposed to this. Calling the shots at three important companies is basically a disaster waiting to happen, especially if you spend a lot of time posting memes on Twitter.
If the bid is accepted, he's going to want to build his own app store otherwise Google & Apple will kick the Twitter app off if his version of free speech doesn't align with their version of censorship. Gab discovered this early on and pivoted accordingly.
If the two app stores tried to deplatform Twitter there would be a landmark court case which would likely reach the Supreme Court.
So Twitter was at $70 per share a year ago. So what? Jack Dorsey was CEO a year ago, too. The share price was $33 less than a month ago. But, despite an absolutely incredible roller-coaster news cycle, things have been definitely trending down at Twitter ($33/share last month), which was reflected in its share price. The current executive team (and Dorsey) had wasted time focusing on things that didn't matter instead…
I don't get how the logistics work in a move like this. If you're a shareholder and the board approves the sale are you forced to sell your shares to Elon at the stated price? What if you don't want to sell? Edit: I also wonder how leveraged positions, especially shorts, get resolved.
Note that this happens even if you're going to lose money on your investment.
The closest thing we had (have) to online free speech was (is) Usenet. But distributors of child porn along with Andrew Cuomo (when he was the New York state attorney general) making a deal with a number of major ISPs resulted in most ISPs discontinuing their Usenet service.
Sadly these days it's only useful for binary downloads if you also use an NZB indexer. Does anyone still use it for discussion?
What if Twitter employees threaten to leave en-masse? I'd seen some reports that people quit when he became the largest shareholder. It's not outside the realm of possibility.
Netflix employee tantrums over Chapelle was the most recent one that comes to mind.
Let's ignore personality and societal issues for a moment and look at the value proposition. The 'best and final offer' of $54.20 per share is just too low to be acceptable for major investors. Just over year ago, Twitter shares traded at about $70 per share. Musk's offer is about 25% lower than last years peak. There's no reason to assume Twitter shares can't reach the same levels ever again, nothing much has change…
Sorry to say but $54.20 is the best they will ever get for TWTR. Those days of $70 per share are over unless we enter another period of easy money.
Plenty of Americans spend 5 to 10% of their worth on stuff. Who cares what your neighbor paid for his boat....maybe dude just likes to drink Coors light on the lake.