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ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

thorconpower.com

101–110 of 246 posts

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#101
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To answer your question: the sun doesn’t shine at night, that’s why we can’t do solar only (without enough energy storage to get us through the night).

With concentrated solar you can store the heat and generate power in the night.

Yes but that costs quite a bit more than PV. Lazard puts it at $126 to $156/MWh.

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-...

That overlaps with Lazard's range for conventional nuclear. And there are lots of reasons to think molten salt reactors in general would be significantly cheaper. Thorcon thinks it can get their cost down to $30/MWh.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#102
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now do the math on how much storage would be needed, and how much would it cost, then show your work. Investors have done exactly that, which is why large scale storage is not happening yet.

I don't have to do the math. Solar+storage is being sold for 4 cents / kWh. https://www.8minute.com/solar-projects/

For most projects, there's at most four hours of storage, just enough to shift peak daytime supply to peak evening demand. That's not the same as getting through the night, or having enough overcapacity to meet demand in cloudy winter weeks.

Lazard puts the wholesale cost of solar PV plus four hours storage at $165 to $296/MWh:

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-...

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#103
post #85
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Storage cost is plummeting even faster than solar or wind cost ever did. A renewable dollar is still better spent today on generating capacity, and will be for several more years, most places. Waiting, you get more storage for your money, and you then already have overcapacity to charge it from. Until the share of renewables approaches enough to destabilize the power grid, building out renewable generating capacity d…

> Storage cost is plummeting even faster than solar or wind cost ever did. About batteries, that's no longer true - lithium, nickel and cobalt prices have exploded in recent months. Furthermore they're impractical ( you need massive space, and then you have a giant fire hazard) and most importantly, needed elsewhere. EV adoption is already stifled by lack of sufficient supply of batteries, and heavy duty vehicles are…

and ffs don't close existing ones that can continue to operate to replace them with gas "temporarily" like the dimwits in Belgium are doing

Actually, Belgium has decided to keep open the two plants that are easy to continue to operate (easy is relative, they will still require a billion euro in maintenance work). They’re still closing the five that would require extensive multi-year downtime and costly renovation (like pouring new concrete) and replacing them with gas plants, but there’s not any real alternative anyway as they would have to shut down for multiple years so new gas plants are unavoidable.

An interesting fact is that a few years ago there was a constitutional court decision that prevented keeping the plants open on anything less than a five year timeline from the moment of deciding, unless there is a risk of blackouts. The only reason the plants will be able to stay open in 2025 is therefore because of Putin.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#104
post #54

"Most people will automatically scoff at the claim that a nuclear power plant should cost less to build than a coal plant. It is received wisdom that nuclear plants are outrageously expensive. And most recent nuclear projects confirm that belief. But why" Because of the potential of catastrophic failure. Duh! That and these people are not counting the discounted cost, over 200,000 years, of storing their long term wa…

I think that the cost of maintaining a site over 200,000 years is a fair point. That said...is it better or worse than coal? Because practically speaking, that's what the choice is here, as far as I can tell. I'd love to say we can quickly convert the whole world to pure renewables, but it's very likely that we can cut our GHG emissions fastest using a mix of multiple approaches rather than ruling out the good in favor of the best.

And note that when you consider costs of something that you have to make a payment on in perpetuity, we don't calculate that as an infinite cost[1]. To say that we'll have to safeguard this nuclear waste in, say year 100,000 of its lifetime, is a lot less of an ask, simply because we have no idea how advanced human technology will be then, maybe making the problem trivial, or whether humans will be completely gone, etc. I agree it's important to think about future generations and to have a very long term view, but the problem of nuclear waste seems much less urgent than the rapidly mounting costs of climate change. Even if we end up using nuclear for, say, 100 years while we transition to completely sustainable, renewable energy, that would be a win over continuing to use fossil fuels. And I don't think it would even add that much to the existing burden of dealing with nuclear waste. Maybe in 200 years we find a spot and put all the waste there with big warning signs etched in stone, and then the main cost is only one of ensuring that we main translations and records of the danger of the site as language evolves. Dealing with solid waste, however careful you need to be with it, seems much easier than trying to collect gases that have mixed into the atmosphere.

[1] https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/fi...

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#105
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope we will, the problem currently is that this is not competitive compared to just burning natural gas. This is because the externalities related to global warming are not accounted for when the market determines the price of gas. Electricity will be more expensive either way and this really hasn’t sunk in yet. Were these costs accounted for, nuclear would be quite competitively priced, even with newer more moder…

> I hope we will, the problem currently is that this is not competitive compared to just burning natural gas. [Citation required] Grid-scale battery systems have fallen more than 70% since 2015. > nuclear would be quite competitively priced Nuclear is one of the most expensive and keeps getting more expensive; it's not competing against natural gas. It's competing against wind and solar, the two cheapest forms of gen…

> Grid-scale battery systems have fallen more than 70% since 2015.

Grid-scale batteries are still tiny. Lithium batteries will not solve the grid problem anytime soon. Lithium (and co) will be strained to the max already.

Every other technology has barley been deployed at all. And there is already a whole litter of energy storage startups that have died.

> Nuclear is one of the most expensive and keeps getting more expensive

In order to get more expensive we would actually have to build plant.

But literally any series engineering analysis of modern GenIV plants show gigantic potential of cost improvement. And if we could actually build them in series production there is another order of magnitude of potential cost improvement.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#106
post #85
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Storage cost is plummeting even faster than solar or wind cost ever did. A renewable dollar is still better spent today on generating capacity, and will be for several more years, most places. Waiting, you get more storage for your money, and you then already have overcapacity to charge it from. Until the share of renewables approaches enough to destabilize the power grid, building out renewable generating capacity d…

> Storage cost is plummeting even faster than solar or wind cost ever did. About batteries, that's no longer true - lithium, nickel and cobalt prices have exploded in recent months. Furthermore they're impractical ( you need massive space, and then you have a giant fire hazard) and most importantly, needed elsewhere. EV adoption is already stifled by lack of sufficient supply of batteries, and heavy duty vehicles are…

Everybody knows batteries are the most expensive storage. So, rising battery prices have no impact on utility-scale storage cost.

A GW-scale electric ammonia synthesis plant is under construction in Norway. Hint, you don't built a GW-scale operation on unproven tech.

We will need hundreds more of them.

Every cent diverted to building nukes from building out renewables brings climate catastrophe nearer.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#107
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope we will, the problem currently is that this is not competitive compared to just burning natural gas. This is because the externalities related to global warming are not accounted for when the market determines the price of gas. Electricity will be more expensive either way and this really hasn’t sunk in yet. Were these costs accounted for, nuclear would be quite competitively priced, even with newer more moder…

> I hope we will, the problem currently is that this is not competitive compared to just burning natural gas. [Citation required] Grid-scale battery systems have fallen more than 70% since 2015. > nuclear would be quite competitively priced Nuclear is one of the most expensive and keeps getting more expensive; it's not competing against natural gas. It's competing against wind and solar, the two cheapest forms of gen…

Companies doing molten salt reactors, including Thorcon, think they can make nuclear dramatically cheaper. There are reasons to think they're correct. It seems like a good idea to let them try.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#108
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now do the math on how much storage would be needed, and how much would it cost, then show your work. Investors have done exactly that, which is why large scale storage is not happening yet.

I don't have to do the math. Solar+storage is being sold for 4 cents / kWh. https://www.8minute.com/solar-projects/

In addition to not being the same as getting through the night, it's far from the same as getting through several cloudy days in a row.

Energy sources that work when they want to will never replace energy sources that work when you tell them to. Lobbying against nuclear is just lobbying for coal and gas.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the reasons why I favor nuclear is quite simple. And its not new technology. In fact, nuclear is the only green energy that ever has actually reliably powered an industrial nation. France did it in 70/80 with technology not more advanced then what is available in the 60s. They have not only proven that nuclear can do it, but also that nuclear scales amazingly well. There really is no technical question what so…

I was a major LFTR/MSR supporter. But the emerging economics of solar/wind prevent any non-subsidized nuclear from being viable. Look at the solar/wind curves for the last decade. Yes, it is unlikely solar and wind will continue such a breakneck pace of improvement, but it doesn't matter. The point is that almost everyone will agree that solar and wind have not reached peak technology and economies of scale, and cert…

Maybe with lots of investment and buy in we can do that in the West.

However for emerging economies like India, Indonesia and many others I still think reliable nuclear power close to population centers is a far better plan.

The actual investment required to get a modern MSR style (doesn't have to be thorium) is not actually that much.

I would at least like to see nuclear get an actual shot at it.

But I agree that after nuclear getting the short straw for 40+ years solar/wind are finally getting to the point where they might be an option.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are definitely waste concerns. There are a number of other problems, though most have to do with getting up and running. Thorium is a by-product of rare-earth mineral mining. It is still radioactive, and it is also subject to all the regulatory red tape of handling any kind of radioactive material. Rare-earth mineral mining is extraordinarily destructive to the environment. When you read about rare-earth minera…

Would it be fair to say that it's not a problem that has really been solved because it's a relatively small and non urgent problem? The spent fuel isn't dangerous while it just sits there, and there isn't that much of it. My understanding is that most spent fuel just gets stored on site, because it's the easiest way. I guess my point is that having to deal with storing solid, static nuclear fuel seems like a pretty g…

Yeah, I'm personally a proponent of these kinds of reactors over coal or traditional fission reactors. The post I was responding to was asking for devil's advocate instead of all rosy.

I think the upside tradeoffs for this kind of nuclear power are preferable to going without.

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